For all your fancy-pants statistical needs.

Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN Top 20, By NCAA Offense

NBAdraft.Net's top 20 College Picks
ranked by Offensive Efficiency and Effective Offensive Size

Based on Adjusted Offensive Plus Minus as predicted by Offensive Rating and Usage% (via for college players).

Size+ is based on how Height + Weight predict offensive performance (at least, in the NCAA).

rkexpPlayerTeamYrNCAA OffenseSize+Ht"Wt
11Kyrie IrvingDukeFr11.8522%74180
28Kemba WalkerConnecticutJr11.5416%73172
32Derrick WilliamsArizonaSo9.8686%80240
413Jimmer FredetteBrigham YoungSr9.4742%74195
524Nolan SmithDukeSr8.9828%74185
623Darius MorrisMichiganSo8.9319%76180
710Alec BurksColoradoSo8.2020%78185
811Marcus MorrisKansasJr7.7071%80225
914Jordan HamiltonTexasSo7.5174%79226
103Brandon KnightKentuckyFr6.8226%75185
1120Marshon BrooksProvidenceSr6.7128%77190
1216Markieff MorrisKansasJr6.6077%81232
1318Tobias HarrisTennesseeFr5.7164%80220
149Tristan ThompsonTexasFr5.7072%80226
157Kawhi LeonardSan Diego St.So5.2473%79225
1615Klay ThompsonWashington St.Jr3.9339%78200
1725Trey ThompkinsGeorgiaJr3.8590%81247
1817Chris SingletonFlorida St.Jr3.7771%81227
1922Tyler HoneycuttUCLASo2.3415%80183
2021Kenneth FariedMorehead St.Sr1.9274%80228

I adjusted these for schedule, but did no NBA->NCAA translation or vice versa. These are based on the following regression:

predicted_Offense = Usage%*(0.92*ORTG - 0.82) - 0.029*ORTG

The Supporting Cast picks up The German's Slack - Game 6

LeBron had a bad day - but so did Dirk.

Bosh, Chalmers, and Wade are the only Miami players who appear to have a positive impact.

Raw Est APM(100) = Estimate of per-100-possessions impact
Adj Est +/- (G) = Estimate of point margin impact during the game

teamStartersMPTOV%ORtgDRtg+/-Raw Est APM(100)Adj Est +/- (G)
DALJason Kidd36.325.8143108185.323.25
DALJason Terry33.914.5130104133.591.82
DALShawn Marion35.413.7100105183.211.61
MIAChris Bosh38.97.614411341.631.52
MIAMario Chalmers38.515.811011151.021.01
DALBrian Cardinal12.250131111183.740.69
MIADwyane Wade41.120.89011230.400.54
DALTyson Chandler30.1171089831.430.26
DALIan Mahinmi11.0015496-10.17-0.19
DALDeShawn Stevenson12.60174104-8-0.51-0.40
MIAEddie House21.10131112-1-1.27-0.45
DALJose Juan Barea29.620117103-7-0.05-0.66
MIAJuwan Howard7.034.70122-11-7.84-1.10
DALDirk Nowitzki38.96.77898-4-0.43-1.17
MIAJoel Anthony10.9063120-3-5.58-1.22
MIAUdonis Haslem33.90119117-7-1.98-1.23
MIAMike Miller8.300119-16-10.02-1.69
MIALeBron James40.426.497115-24-3.31-2.58

The Biggest Game of Lebron James' life...was awful.

Dallas won by 9 points, which is 10.4 points per 100 possessions.

I split credit of the team's point margin in half, adjusted for pace, quality of opponent, and home-court-advantage.

Dallas played like a +4.98 team
Miami played like a -4.98 team

TOV%=percent of a player's possessions that ended in a turnover ('s boxscore).
ORTG=offensive rating. very complex measure for efficiency
DRTG=defensive rating, similar to the above.
+/- = Plus-Minus rating, as tabulated by ESPN's box score. It shows the change in point margin while a player is on the court.

Raw est APM(100)= an estimate (using the above) of how much a player impacted his team's point margin per 100 possessions.

Adj est +/- (G) = an estimate of how much a player impacted his team's point margin per 100 possessions

teamStartersMPTOV%ORtgDRtg+/-Raw est APM(100)Adj est +/- (G)
DALJason Kidd39.8730.4139115134.273.17
DALTyson Chandler38.670150117143.032.08
DALDirk Nowitzki39.628.2125119142.461.66
DALShawn Marion34.0315.480117211.850.99
MIAMario Chalmers23.4512175128-10.530.55
MIAMike Miller23.2016.71431280-0.290.15
MIAJuwan Howard5.8202001346-0.020.07
DALJason Terry30.4813.414612310.440.00
MIAUdonis Haslem33.0001401310-0.78-0.13
MIAEddie House3.4733.30953-3.85-0.23
DALJose Juan Barea25.65814612640.00-0.24
MIAJoel Anthony16.200200135-9-1.55-0.32
DALBrian Cardinal9.6234.7106114-7-2.42-0.57
DALIan Mahinmi8.10123123-3-3.70-0.70
MIADwyane Wade34.4518.8126124-13-1.74-0.82
MIAMike Bibby15.4033.362134-7-4.74-1.33
MIAChris Bosh39.3820113131-13-2.24-1.35
DALDeShawn Stevenson13.970133127-12-4.44-1.42
MIALeBron James45.6316.898131-11-2.23-1.56

(Here is a quick spreadsheet that explains how I currently estimate APM.)

James played nearly every minute of this game, and didn't really succeed. Per-possession, Bibby had a much worse game, however.

EDIT: By the way - these numbers are based on a prediction of these ratings.

Another Look @ Game 3

based on Engalmann's latest adjustement to Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus

raw est APM(100)=Estimate of adjusted +/- per 100
adj est +/- (G)= estimated contribution to team point margin during the game (adjusted for % of minutes played, quality of opponent, location)

teamPlayersMPTOV%ORtgDRtg+/-raw est APM(100)adj est +/-(G)
MIALeBron James45.320.210410814.113.73
DALDirk Nowitzki42.010.712899124.993.52
MIADwyane Wade38.60137101-13.612.79
MIAMario Chalmers28.811.113111063.141.79
DALTyson Chandler40.0013710442.981.68
DALJason Kidd35.531.110010952.471.11
MIAUdonis Haslem29.012.58610551.700.94
DALDeShawn Stevenson14.20278113-73.060.62
MIAJoel Anthony23.1010810230.990.41
MIAMike Miller12.250268640.11-0.01
MIAJuwan Howard6.4014610960.05-0.01
DALBrian Cardinal0.100116-3-9.17-0.02
DALShawn Marion43.113.489113-10.84-0.11
MIAChris Bosh37.5989114-10-0.13-0.22
DALIan Mahinmi8.00145115-6-2.64-0.60
DALPeja Stojakovic6.133.36098-11-4.01-0.63
MIAMike Bibby19.116.760101-4-1.65-0.72
DALJose Juan Barea19.031.1521123-1.67-1.05
DALJason Terry32.10112109-6-0.75-1.15

(Plus-minus number also gives us estimates for OnCourt +/- per 100 minus OffCourt +/- per 100, and teammate OnCourt minus OffCourt, both of which adjust the Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating, and Turnover% values)

Game 3! (Somewhat late...)

The formula is confused as to how Dallas lost. (Total contrib of around 11 versus Miami's 6).

Miami leads, 2-1.

DALDirk Nowitzki128991287.4%4.543.97
DALTyson Chandler137104483.3%3.352.79
MIADwyane Wade137101-180.5%2.191.76
MIALeBron James104108194.3%1.801.70
DALJason Kidd100109573.9%2.301.70
MIAMario Chalmers131110660.1%2.501.50
DALShawn Marion89113-189.9%1.501.35
DALDeShawn Stevenson278113-729.6%3.421.01
MIAUdonis Haslem86105560.5%1.440.87
MIAJoel Anthony108102348.1%1.490.72
DALJason Terry112109-666.8%0.800.53
MIAJuwan Howard146109613.4%1.870.25
DALIan Mahinmi145115-616.7%0.150.03
DALJose Juan Barea52112339.7%0.020.01
DALBrian Cardinal116-30.2%-3.69-0.01
MIAMike Miller2686425.3%-0.38-0.10
DALPeja Stojakovic6098-1112.6%-2.22-0.28
MIAMike Bibby60101-439.8%-0.87-0.35
MIAChris Bosh89114-1078.1%-0.53-0.42

Game 2! (Very late...)

I finally came up with a formula that helps regress crazy values (i.e. Dirk off the court was worth -100 points per 100 possessions in game 2).

"Adjusted" +/- per 100 is a simple combination of Net +/- (ON - OFF), offensive rating, and defensive rating

DALLAS by 2, (tying the series at 1-1)

teamStartersmin%ORtgDRtg+/-Adj +/- per 100Total +/- Contrib.
MIADwyane Wade87.8%14810753.793.33
DALDirk Nowitzki87.6%97106133.282.88
DALTyson Chandler79.4%15410843.092.45
DALJason Terry64.8%124105133.542.29
DALShawn Marion85.2%12310612.131.81
MIAMike Bibby46.0%1459873.341.54
MIAChris Bosh82.9%7111231.491.23
MIALeBron James82.5%99101-51.271.05
DALJason Kidd78.2%7210610.820.65
DALDeShawn Stevenson46.1%13195-50.820.38
DALBrendan Haywood17.0%651125-0.15-0.02
DALBrian Cardinal2.1%108-4-3.30-0.07
MIAMario Chalmers51.9%98116-7-0.33-0.17
DALPeja Stojakovic10.3%0114-7-3.53-0.36
DALJose Barea29.3%82109-11-1.69-0.50
MIAJoel Anthony55.9%1142-0.94-0.52
MIAMike Miller31.6%099-3-1.97-0.62
MIAUdonis Haslem61.3%52114-12-1.76-1.08


Wayne Winston & more recently Kevin Pelton like to use +/- in their discussions on player performance. But Statistical plus-minus geeks like myself are dissatisfied with simple Net +/- ratings. It should be noted that I have not implemented any system that regresses towards the mean for small sample sizes. I will incorporate this later.

Here is how the Heat & Mavericks stack up in my combined system.

Adj. Rating = estimate of how much the player contributed to his team's point margin, per 100 possessions*
Contrib = estimate of a player's total contributions to their team's point margin during play

st. ORAPM = advanced stats prediction of offensive Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus
st. DRAPM = same^, except defensive RAPM
Statistical RTG = st. ORAPM + st. DRAPM

Net Plus-Minus = On-Court Team Efficiency Margin (per 100) minus Off-court Team Efficiency Margin

Playerst. ORAPMst. DRAPMNet Plus-MinusStatistical RTGAdj RTGMin%Contrib
DALDirk Nowitzki
MIAChris Bosh
MIALeBron James
DALTyson Chandler
DALJason Terry
MIAMario Chalmers
MIAUdonis Haslem
MIADwyane Wade
MIAJuwan Howard
DALBrendan Haywood
DALPeja Stojakovic
DALDeShawn Stevenson
MIAMike Miller
MIAMike Bibby
DALJason Kidd
DALJose Barea
DALShawn Marion
MIAJoel Anthony

*In case you were wondering, for the 2011 season, this is how statistical & Net plus-minuses predict (explain) RAPM ratings:

Net per 1000.253406036


About Me

I wish my heart were as often large as my hands.