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Introducing SPR (Offense)

If you're like me, and you run regressions of statistics against multi-year regularized-adjusted plus-minus in your spare time, you'll note that there are numerous ways to come up with good estimates. Wanting to create a system that requires as little math as possible, I have found combinations that can estimate offensive value well, while not requiring people to utilize long strings of decimals.

So I've decided to finally release my Simple Player Rating (for offense) to the public. Here it go!
"SPR: Offense" represents an estimate of how much a player boosted their team's offensive rating above average.

SPR: Offense =
(Points - FGmade - Turnovers + 0.5 x (Oreb + Assists - FGmissed - Free Throw Attempts))*100/Possessions Played - 6.5

a)To come up with possessions played, you can find this on any box score:
Possessions Played = Pace x (Minutes Played) / (Game Minutes, Usually 48)

b) Also, if you want to convert this to a per-game statistic, simply multiply by:
(Minutes Played) / (Game Minutes)

Here is how this stat correlates with 8-year-RAPM:

In case you were wondering, with the raw values that my regression gave me the R^2 is only 0.01 higher.

And here are the per-game and per-100 SPR Offense from Miami vs Boston Game 6, aka "BRON-BRON GOES NUTS."

Defense is coming soon. Enjoy responsibly!


About Me

I wish my heart were as often large as my hands.