Made a slight change to my team ratings, giving slightly more weight (33% to be precise-ish) to a team's point differential. The remaining (67%) goes to efficiency differential, same as the last post.
Download the Spreadsheet Here
This version simply lists probabilities of getting to each round and expected ESPN scoring.
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THE LEHIGH METHOD RETURNS: 2015 Bracket Cheat Sheet
I'm still stuck in the technological dark ages when it comes to sharing content. But I promise my analysis is as _____ as ever!
My simulations take into account rosters (rarely-used players getting less minutes), and luck-adjustment (aka The LeHigh Method which adjusts a team's four factors stats for which ones tend to be "luckier" than others).
Here's the excel sheet with my simulation results.
"PickMe" rating is a combination of three things:
-Which teams are projected to do better than typical seed expectation
-Which teams are highly volatile (can do significantly better than expected)
-The above two, weighted by typical round-by-round scoring (1st: 1, 2nd: 2, 3rd: 4, 4th: 8, 5th: 16, 6th: 32)
All data from sports-reference.com and kenpom.com. Thanks to @DSMok1 for helping me grab the S-R.com data.
My simulations take into account rosters (rarely-used players getting less minutes), and luck-adjustment (aka The LeHigh Method which adjusts a team's four factors stats for which ones tend to be "luckier" than others).
Here's the excel sheet with my simulation results.
"PickMe" rating is a combination of three things:
-Which teams are projected to do better than typical seed expectation
-Which teams are highly volatile (can do significantly better than expected)
-The above two, weighted by typical round-by-round scoring (1st: 1, 2nd: 2, 3rd: 4, 4th: 8, 5th: 16, 6th: 32)
All data from sports-reference.com and kenpom.com. Thanks to @DSMok1 for helping me grab the S-R.com data.