tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1866249077959726231.post599540260588827117..comments2023-07-20T08:19:23.081-04:00Comments on the basketball distribution: Estimated defensive rating formula, with Usage% !Nathanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01265108760665940696noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1866249077959726231.post-87250717188059462682011-02-10T17:12:45.520-05:002011-02-10T17:12:45.520-05:00I'm starting to compare my data to b2b's R...I'm starting to compare my data to b2b's RAPM for total, offense, and defense, using the 3yr estimates for him and 3-yr averages for ezPM. Hopefully, something interesting comes out of it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1866249077959726231.post-19296450602926087372011-02-09T12:36:22.972-05:002011-02-09T12:36:22.972-05:00I now understand what defensive possessions and dU...I now understand what defensive possessions and dUSG% are based on here; and since counterpart shot defense is not currently used, these estimated values are rough guidelines and not as precise as they appear.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09220185149687014573noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1866249077959726231.post-65184217115043491292011-02-09T12:25:37.468-05:002011-02-09T12:25:37.468-05:00Thanks for the clarification that your metric is n...Thanks for the clarification that your metric is not based on counterpart shot defense at this time.<br /><br />Bacn2newbelf's site <br />http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/<br />has the only public and current offensive and defensive splits for Adjusted +/-.<br /><br />An Excel file of your data or your data side by side with defensive Adjusted +/- would be appreciated but when you get to it, no rush.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09220185149687014573noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1866249077959726231.post-43055376341984839822011-02-09T11:52:54.195-05:002011-02-09T11:52:54.195-05:00*by statistical +/- I meant all +/- (On-Court, Net...*by statistical +/- I meant all +/- (On-Court, Net, APM, SPM)Nathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01265108760665940696noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1866249077959726231.post-41011964287805855962011-02-09T10:43:24.266-05:002011-02-09T10:43:24.266-05:00Hey Crow.
I don't have the excel file handy, ...Hey Crow.<br /><br />I don't have the excel file handy, but I can later today. FMw is spread throughout the entire team (not counterparts). I've toyed with the idea of counterparts, but have been slowed down by the difficulties in acquiring such data. I would like to, however, find a way to make this data more specific.<br /><br />My current favorite methodology of regression is to find the least squares of some statistical estimate (like WS/48 or Offensive and Defensive Ratings) in tandem with Net +/-, and regress against Adjusted +/-. This is what I plan to do next.<br /><br /><br />I've had a hard time keeping up with Zamir's numbers (he posts too many links for my small mind!), although his metrics seem pretty theoretically sound. I was planning on running against unadjusted defensive plus-minus yesterday; however, I don't think Barzilai's APM adjusts for defense? On his site he lists Unadjusted Defensive On/Off/Net...<br /><br />I'd like to think that a non-linear metric like this tells us some things that statistical +/- metrics can't, but I'm having a hard time believing that.Nathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01265108760665940696noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1866249077959726231.post-15634287743302179632011-02-08T22:22:29.955-05:002011-02-08T22:22:29.955-05:00To be clear, is your FMW (forced-miss-weight) goi...To be clear, is your FMW (forced-miss-weight) going to the offensive player's counterpart defender; and if and presumably so given your text, what basis did you use for the play by play defensive position assignments with the NBA data? <br /><br />FMW (forced-miss-weight) going to the offensive player's counterpart would be a big change from Oliver's Defensive Rating as is varying the % of defensive possessions faced from an assumed flat 20%.<br /><br />Have you compared the values in your formula to Evan Zamir's EZPM?<br /><br />Would you be willing to lead in running correlations for your defensive measure, Defensive Win Shares, EZPM and defensive Adjusted +/-? <br /><br />Given that your data is in .pdf here I don't immediately know how to get it in Excel without re-doing the data-entry. Is there a way to do that or to get your data in a Excel file? <br /><br />CrowUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09220185149687014573noreply@blogger.com