Rather than using the standard model for plus-minus, I am going to start using one of my own, which I will test on data I get on the homesch...

UNC vs FIU based on simple stats predicted by Accuscore.com efficiencies: FIU: 77 UNC: 113

The Rating Percentage Index, or 'RPI' is College Basketball's tamer BCS computer system (i.e. - it's unfair). By weighting t...

Ken Pomeroy and the LRMC (logistic regression-markov chain) models for predicting NCAA winners are both incredibly accurate, but they both h...

I finally bought Dean Oliver's book, "Basketball on Paper" -- and I think I am onto a breakthrough! Dean Oliver actually uses ...

Much of my conjecture over my past few post has been flawed, but at least it's an attempt in growing. Here, I will lay out the foundatio...

  Nathan's Most Efficient Basketball Players                             THA/48=Teammate Help Added Every 48 Minutes Played   PHA/48=Per...

Point Margin Above Replacement Player, or PMARP, and its adjusted counterpart, EMARP FM=Final Margin (of your team) Net=points scored - poin...

Here's the formula, with an explanation of what it is and how it works. What it is: This represents how many points a player is worth (h...

Wahoo! I've just invented a formula for a Player's Efficiency Margin! Now I need to get back to work.....

I haven't had a chance to adjust for tempo, but here are my ten most valuable and ten best NBA players, according to how many points the...

The 'Four Factors' are the keys to success in winning a basketball game. They are, generally put, how often you make your baskets,...

This year, Kenpom.com's stats weren't as accurate as I had hoped in predicting the tournament.... But fortunately, I have come up wi...

mean prediction: Carolina by 7 74 possessions, EFG % TO% OR% FTR north carolina 50.94 ...

probability of a good run (((1-to%)*(1-nofga%)*FG%+(1-to%)*(1-nofga%)*(1-fg%)*or%fg%)*2*eFG%/100)^3

I do not have any magical power that will tell you how the unpredictable things in this tournament will play out. I can't tell you what ...

I ran about 5,000 simulations of the bracket today in Excel, to find who was most likely to win the championship (the math was a little too ...

In order to use the bracketmaker, you must have Microsoft Excel or Openoffice Calc. To purchase it, click the "Buy" button up at t...

My random-bracket generator is complete! Five bucks! Ok, now here's the picture you need to see:

Joe Lunardi is picking the FIFTH-best conference to get the most NCAA tourney bids. • Big Ten (7): Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Wiscon...