100th post! Hoorah! This blog and twitter have given me a wee voice with which to share the math that runs through my head. Holla to my loya...

Statistically, we can try to estimate a team's overall win% against an average team, and say that's their adjusted Win% (similar to ...

I think I need to adjust my ratings for recency! ( http://tinyurl.com/BBstatsNBA ) Here's the sample of the games on Nov. 26th (Predict...

I have finally done something I've been wanting to do for a long time: make my own ratings system! I have found a source of easily-updat...

I used the definitions of the 4 factors (and other statistics) to derive a formula that gives us Points and Points Per Possession from only ...

Blogger has kindly put out some new tools (and a sick new template!) that will hopefully make this blog a little less clunky. Some current h...

The Miami Heat, projected: Dwayne Wade - ORTG: 110.3 unadjusted Usg: 33.2% DRTG: 106.1 Lebron James - ORTG: 120.1 unadjusted Usg: 32.9% DRTG...

This adjusts a player's Offensive Plus Minus for their teammates. We do this based on a Linear Regression that includes: -a player's...

This is fun: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/241759/boxoutpercent.pdf - for all NBA players in 2010 with 25+ minutes per game, who have played 40+ ...

Here we estimate each player's Adjusted (against average competition) Offensive Efficiencies (The formula is simply (Raw Offensive Effic...

Since my blog is so ugly, I don't really like updating it. But here's a quick rundown of my monte carlo simulation method. 1) The K...

By taking the simulated # of wins (via kenpom.com's numbers) and average wins for a given seed, we can rate who will have the best perfo...

Here is my preliminary results of my bracket simulation, based on stats from Kenpom.com http://dl.dropbox.com/u/241759/MidwestWest.html (not...

Here we'll be taking a look at what is likely to alter a team's predicted final score (based on Ken Pomeroy's rankings - http://...

NCAA tournament upset watch: Murray State and Pittsburgh are the two teams who will likely be mis-seeded the worst: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/...

While I think using the four factors can give us a much better picture of point-margin (and therefore, chance of win), let's just look a...

Let's try this jam out on UNC. The best way to predict a team's four factors in a future game is to create a linear regression invol...

The best way to predict point margin is to first predict a team's four factors, then convert the four factors into point margin via line...

Here's how UNC's injuries have affected their play, in terms of points. The number represents how Carolina does versus their average...