Hope everyone's having a great summer...

Down with the RPI!!!

Adjusted Player "dWin%"

This is, as far as I know, the first publicly available Adjusted "Win%" metric for NBA players.

For a quick refresher, here's the theory:

1) Adjusted plus-minus data uses a regression equation to determine which player impacts team point margin the most, etc.
2) We can determine the probability of any team winning a game based on location (home or away), time left, and point margin. (I'm using Kupfer's old estimate).
3) According to this (and Ken Pomeroy, NCAA guru), there are certain points in the game with much more leverage than others.
4) Increasing your lead by 1 point is much more valuable to your team's win with 1 second left while the game is tied than at the beginning of the game when it is tied (i.e. clutch points>average points>"garbage time" points).

Using this, I have given each game substitution from the 2011 season play-by-play a "delta Win% per 100," showing the degree that each team's win% has changed. Using this instead of Efficiency Margin, I simply followed the steps in Eli Witus' golden blog post of old for the 2011 regular season.

I penalize high standard errors and reward low standard errors (by converting value+SE into a NormDist function then back into a value), thus making the system look slightly more like rAPM than APM.

You'll notice that some players have extremely high values that don't necessarily make sense; remember that in-game-Win-probability has a limit (it cannot exceed 100%). These rankings do not share that, (i.e. putting Dirk on an average team for a whole game would not win>120% of their games) since per-100 Win% can have extreme highs and lows. If you'd rather, simply move the decimal place over two spots to the left in your mind and consider that "delta Win% per possession."

Without further ado, here are the rankings:

	name	ReΔW%/100	ΔW%/100	SE
1	Nowitzki, Dirk	74.5%	63.2%	19.4%
2	Paul, Chris	74.4%	80.6%	24.7%
3	James, LeBron	70.2%	60.0%	19.5%
4	Ginobili, Manu	60.9%	49.4%	18.6%
5	Anderson, Ryan	60.3%	51.6%	19.6%
6	Howard, Dwight	60.0%	56.2%	21.4%
7	Jones, James	58.3%	47.9%	18.8%
8	Terry, Jason	58.3%	51.4%	20.1%
9	Gasol, Pau	53.8%	60.4%	25.7%
10	Davis, Baron	52.4%	45.3%	19.7%
11	Nash, Steve	49.8%	54.8%	25.1%
12	Garnett, Kevin	49.4%	55.2%	25.5%
13	Brand, Elton	49.4%	48.1%	22.3%
14	Wade, Dwyane	48.7%	48.4%	22.7%
15	Blatche, Andray	44.8%	38.0%	19.4%
16	Hilario, Nene	44.7%	38.4%	19.6%
17	Ibaka, Serge	44.3%	36.4%	18.8%
18	Millsap, Paul	44.2%	37.3%	19.3%
19	Tolliver, Anthony	43.3%	42.2%	22.3%
20	Duncan, Tim	43.1%	48.3%	25.6%
21	Hibbert, Roy	43.0%	60.4%	32.1%
22	Radmanovic, Vladimir	42.7%	36.9%	19.7%
23	Okafor, Emeka	42.3%	38.0%	20.5%
24	Fields, Landry	41.6%	31.5%	17.3%
25	Harris, Devin	41.0%	32.5%	18.1%
26	Wright, Dorell	40.3%	38.2%	21.7%
27	Collins, Jason	40.1%	43.8%	25.0%
28	Lowry, Kyle	40.0%	39.5%	22.6%
29	Calderon, Jose	39.7%	38.3%	22.0%
30	Farmar, Jordan	39.6%	31.7%	18.3%
31	Crawford, Jamal	39.2%	30.6%	17.8%
32	Martin, Kenyon	38.4%	33.8%	20.1%
33	Williams, Louis	37.1%	32.3%	19.8%
34	Watson, Earl	37.0%	31.9%	19.7%
35	Aldridge, LaMarcus	36.7%	39.0%	24.3%
36	O'Neal, Shaquille	36.4%	39.1%	24.6%
37	Foster, Jeff	36.1%	53.9%	34.1%
38	Collison, Nick	35.6%	32.1%	20.6%
39	Davis, Glen	34.6%	29.6%	19.5%
40	Miles, C.J.	34.5%	26.8%	17.7%
41	Jack, Jarrett	34.3%	27.9%	18.6%
42	Gordon, Eric	34.1%	29.2%	19.6%
43	Harrington, Al	34.1%	28.7%	19.2%
44	Wallace, Gerald	34.1%	23.4%	15.7%
45	House, Eddie	33.9%	33.8%	22.8%
46	Korver, Kyle	33.8%	33.3%	22.5%
47	McGee, JaVale	33.7%	27.0%	18.3%
48	Sefolosha, Thabo	33.7%	33.0%	22.4%
49	Mohammed, Nazr	33.5%	28.3%	19.3%
50	Bargnani, Andrea	32.7%	26.8%	18.7%
51	Young, Sam	31.8%	26.8%	19.3%
52	Chalmers, Mario	31.8%	29.9%	21.5%
53	Dunleavy, Mike	31.6%	33.8%	24.5%
54	Young, Thaddeus	31.4%	29.6%	21.5%
55	Arroyo, Carlos	31.3%	31.6%	23.1%
56	Turkoglu, Hedo	31.2%	22.9%	16.8%
57	Durant, Kevin	31.0%	32.3%	23.8%
58	Thompson, Jason	30.8%	25.6%	19.0%
59	Love, Kevin	30.6%	32.6%	24.3%
60	Gortat, Marcin	30.6%	26.2%	19.5%
61	Griffin, Blake	30.6%	29.6%	22.1%
62	Speights, Marreese	30.5%	34.1%	25.6%
63	Miller, Andre	30.4%	33.9%	25.4%
64	Chandler, Wilson	30.0%	21.3%	16.2%
65	Kidd, Jason	30.0%	34.5%	26.3%
66	Williams, Mo	29.8%	27.3%	21.0%
67	Boykins, Earl	29.7%	33.8%	26.0%
68	Ilyasova, Ersan	29.6%	25.8%	19.9%
69	Hill, George	29.5%	23.6%	18.3%
70	Deng, Luol	29.5%	33.0%	25.6%
71	Martin, Cartier	28.9%	31.9%	25.2%
72	Bogut, Andrew	28.5%	26.1%	20.9%
73	Randolph, Zach	28.5%	26.4%	21.2%
74	Jennings, Brandon	28.4%	30.2%	24.3%
75	Pierce, Paul	28.3%	28.9%	23.3%
76	Dooling, Keyon	28.0%	24.4%	19.9%
77	Curry, Stephen	27.5%	23.3%	19.4%
78	Johnson, Amir	27.4%	24.1%	20.1%
79	Foye, Randy	27.2%	23.5%	19.7%
80	Cousins, DeMarcus	26.9%	23.4%	19.8%
81	Barbosa, Leandro	26.3%	21.2%	18.5%
82	Walker, Bill	26.2%	25.8%	22.5%
83	Jeffries, Jared	26.2%	29.1%	25.4%
84	George, Paul	26.1%	30.3%	26.5%
85	Mayo, O.J.	26.1%	21.6%	18.9%
86	Hayes, Chuck	25.9%	26.5%	23.3%
87	Johnson, Joe	25.9%	23.0%	20.3%
88	Rose, Derrick	25.8%	43.2%	38.3%
89	Lewis, Rashard	25.7%	19.0%	16.9%
90	Odom, Lamar	25.1%	23.2%	21.1%
91	Jianlian, Yi	24.8%	22.6%	20.8%
92	Kirilenko, Andrei	24.7%	20.5%	18.9%
93	Lopez, Brook	24.7%	26.8%	24.8%
94	Fernandez, Rudy	24.5%	19.4%	18.1%
95	Bynum, Andrew	24.3%	24.4%	22.9%
96	Parker, Anthony	24.1%	22.0%	20.8%
97	Williams, Deron	23.8%	19.7%	19.0%
98	Harden, James	23.7%	23.2%	22.4%
99	Battier, Shane	23.4%	19.1%	18.7%
100	Turiaf, Ronny	22.6%	18.5%	18.7%
101	Budinger, Chase	22.6%	20.6%	20.9%
102	Henderson, Gerald	22.6%	17.9%	18.1%
103	Johnson, Wesley	22.5%	21.6%	22.0%
104	Andersen, Chris	22.2%	23.0%	23.7%
105	Greene, Donte	22.2%	20.6%	21.3%
106	Kaman, Chris	22.1%	22.4%	23.2%
107	Prince, Tayshaun	22.0%	19.7%	20.4%
108	Hawes, Spencer	21.9%	20.8%	21.7%
109	Dalembert, Samuel	21.6%	18.3%	19.3%
110	Anthony, Carmelo	21.3%	16.6%	17.8%
111	Morrow, Anthony	21.3%	18.5%	19.9%
112	Smith, Josh	21.1%	18.0%	19.5%
113	Bonner, Matt	20.9%	19.5%	21.4%
114	Williams, Marvin	20.8%	15.4%	16.9%
115	Beasley, Michael	20.8%	18.2%	20.1%
116	Monroe, Greg	20.4%	19.4%	21.7%
117	Matthews, Wes	20.2%	17.3%	19.6%
118	Bosh, Chris	20.0%	20.7%	23.7%
119	Williams, Shawne	20.0%	16.5%	18.8%
120	Bibby, Mike	19.8%	15.1%	17.4%
121	Smith, J.R.	19.6%	15.7%	18.3%
122	Thomas, Tyrus	19.5%	19.2%	22.6%
123	O'Neal, Jermaine	19.3%	25.1%	29.7%
124	Frye, Channing	19.2%	16.3%	19.3%
125	Miller, Brad	19.1%	20.3%	24.2%
126	Asik, Omer	18.5%	23.0%	28.4%
127	Allen, Tony	18.5%	15.9%	19.6%
128	Augustin, D.J.	18.4%	20.4%	25.3%
129	Felton, Raymond	18.2%	14.8%	18.5%
130	Gay, Rudy	18.2%	16.9%	21.2%
131	Gibson, Daniel	18.2%	15.6%	19.6%
132	Udrih, Beno	18.2%	16.1%	20.3%
133	Lee, Courtney	18.0%	17.5%	22.2%
134	Green, Jeff	17.8%	12.8%	16.5%
135	Fisher, Derek	17.6%	29.6%	38.4%
136	West, David	17.2%	16.0%	21.3%
137	Conley, Mike	17.1%	22.8%	30.5%
138	Udoh, Ekpe	17.1%	16.0%	21.3%
139	Bayless, Jerryd	17.0%	15.5%	20.9%
140	Gallinari, Danilo	16.5%	12.8%	17.7%
141	Stoudemire, Amare	16.5%	13.6%	18.9%
142	Granger, Danny	16.3%	18.5%	25.9%
143	Stojakovic, Peja	16.1%	16.9%	23.9%
144	Gordon, Ben	16.1%	14.4%	20.4%
145	Ellington, Wayne	16.0%	16.7%	23.9%
146	Jones, Dahntay	15.9%	22.2%	32.0%
147	Diaw, Boris	15.8%	14.1%	20.4%
148	Maxiell, Jason	15.8%	16.2%	23.5%
149	Daniels, Marquis	15.5%	16.2%	23.9%
150	McRoberts, Josh	15.3%	17.4%	25.9%
151	Lee, David	15.2%	12.9%	19.4%
152	Horford, Al	15.0%	13.5%	20.5%
153	Rush, Brandon	14.9%	16.3%	25.0%
154	Williams, Shelden	14.9%	13.8%	21.3%
155	Roy, Brandon	14.7%	12.8%	19.9%
156	Neal, Gary	14.2%	12.6%	20.2%
157	Wilcox, Chris	14.0%	14.1%	23.0%
158	Jones, Solomon	13.9%	23.3%	38.4%
159	White, D.J.	13.8%	14.7%	24.3%
160	Bledsoe, Eric	13.8%	12.4%	20.6%
161	Douglas-Roberts, Chris	13.7%	13.6%	22.6%
162	Hollins, Ryan	13.5%	13.8%	23.3%
163	Smith, Jason	13.2%	12.8%	22.1%
164	Villanueva, Charlie	13.2%	11.9%	20.6%
165	Gasol, Marc	13.2%	11.2%	19.5%
166	Meeks, Jodie	12.9%	10.3%	18.2%
167	Williams, Reggie	12.7%	9.7%	17.4%
168	Samuels, Samardo	12.7%	15.3%	27.6%
169	Livingston, Shaun	12.6%	13.3%	24.0%
170	Delfino, Carlos	12.3%	10.1%	18.8%
171	Hickson, J.J.	12.3%	11.5%	21.5%
172	Casspi, Omri	11.9%	10.3%	19.7%
173	Barea, Jose	11.8%	11.3%	22.0%
174	McGrady, Tracy	11.6%	10.3%	20.1%
175	Krstic, Nenad	11.5%	9.7%	19.2%
176	Petro, Johan	11.4%	13.1%	26.3%
177	Pietrus, Mickael	11.4%	9.9%	20.0%
178	Brown, Shannon	11.3%	12.9%	26.2%
179	Chandler, Tyson	11.2%	14.1%	28.9%
180	Teague, Jeff	11.1%	11.2%	22.9%
181	Brockman, Jon	11.1%	13.2%	27.3%
182	Splitter, Tiago	10.8%	11.7%	24.7%
183	Lawson, Ty	10.8%	8.5%	18.0%
184	Carter, Vince	10.6%	8.5%	18.3%
185	Booker, Trevor	10.5%	9.6%	20.9%
186	Sessions, Ramon	10.2%	9.6%	21.4%
187	Butler, Caron	10.1%	10.3%	23.3%
188	Lopez, Robin	9.9%	10.0%	23.1%
189	Richardson, Quentin	9.8%	9.4%	21.9%
190	Jefferson, Richard	9.7%	8.5%	20.2%
191	Pachulia, Zaza	9.5%	8.7%	20.9%
192	Parker, Tony	9.5%	9.6%	23.1%
193	Iguodala, Andre	9.3%	8.3%	20.2%
194	Daye, Austin	9.3%	7.5%	18.5%
195	Scola, Luis	9.1%	9.8%	24.6%
196	Perkins, Kendrick	9.1%	9.4%	23.5%
197	Noah, Joakim	9.1%	11.0%	27.6%
198	Afflalo, Arron	9.1%	7.2%	18.0%
199	Childress, Josh	9.1%	8.9%	22.5%
200	Ellis, Monta	8.5%	8.3%	22.2%
201	Harris, Manny	8.5%	8.7%	23.4%
202	Bass, Brandon	8.4%	6.7%	18.1%
203	Brewer, Ronnie	8.4%	8.3%	22.6%
204	McDyess, Antonio	8.4%	8.3%	22.6%
205	Hill, Grant	8.3%	8.0%	21.9%
206	Gibson, Taj	8.3%	7.9%	21.8%
207	Allen, Ray	8.2%	8.1%	22.8%
208	Brewer, Corey	8.1%	6.9%	19.3%
209	Stuckey, Rodney	7.8%	7.0%	20.5%
210	Holiday, Jrue	7.5%	6.8%	20.7%
211	Patterson, Patrick	7.4%	8.8%	27.1%
212	Watson, C.J.	7.3%	11.1%	34.6%
213	Warrick, Hakim	7.2%	6.0%	19.3%
214	Thornton, Al	6.8%	5.2%	17.3%
215	Cunningham, Dante	6.5%	5.0%	17.9%
216	Landry, Carl	6.1%	4.8%	17.9%
217	Vujacic, Sasha	6.1%	4.9%	18.3%
218	Posey, James	5.9%	7.6%	29.6%
219	Brown, Kwame	5.8%	4.9%	19.4%
220	Graham, Joey	5.7%	6.3%	25.1%
221	Martin, Kevin	5.3%	5.7%	24.7%
222	Garcia, Francisco	5.1%	4.5%	20.1%
223	Thomas, Kurt	5.1%	6.2%	27.6%
224	Salmons, John	4.7%	4.2%	20.4%
225	Richardson, Jason	4.6%	3.5%	17.5%
226	Blake, Steve	4.5%	6.8%	34.5%
227	Smith, Craig	4.1%	4.8%	26.9%
228	Douglas, Toney	3.6%	2.8%	18.2%
229	Bogans, Keith	3.5%	4.1%	26.9%
230	Arthur, Darrell	3.3%	3.0%	20.8%
231	Artest, Ron	3.3%	3.5%	24.7%
232	Evans, Maurice	3.3%	2.5%	17.3%
233	Billups, Chauncey	3.0%	2.6%	20.1%
234	Varejao, Anderson	2.8%	3.5%	28.0%
235	Jefferson, Al	2.7%	2.7%	22.4%
236	Dragic, Goran	2.6%	2.5%	21.9%
237	Jordan, DeAndre	2.5%	2.0%	18.7%
238	Jackson, Stephen	2.3%	2.0%	19.6%
239	Williams, Jason	2.2%	3.4%	34.8%
240	Price, Ronnie	2.1%	2.2%	23.9%
241	Evans, Tyreke	1.8%	1.4%	18.0%
242	Butler, Rasual	1.4%	1.4%	22.6%
243	Arenas, Gilbert	1.2%	0.9%	17.3%
244	Boozer, Carlos	1.0%	1.0%	23.0%
245	Johnson, James	0.3%	0.3%	22.2%
246	Mills, Patrick	0.2%	0.3%	26.7%
247	Green, Willie	0.2%	0.1%	19.0%
248	Belinelli, Marco	0.1%	0.1%	20.3%
249	Miller, Mike	-0.1%	-0.1%	21.9%
250	Pekovic, Nikola	-0.9%	-0.9%	24.3%
251	Gooden, Drew	-1.0%	-1.1%	23.4%
252	Harangody, Luke	-1.1%	-1.3%	26.2%
253	Hamilton, Richard	-1.3%	-1.2%	21.2%
254	Crawford, Jordan	-1.4%	-1.4%	23.5%
255	Thornton, Marcus	-1.5%	-1.1%	17.0%
256	Randolph, Anthony	-1.5%	-1.7%	26.9%
257	Derozan, DeMar	-1.8%	-1.6%	20.0%
258	Rondo, Rajon	-1.8%	-1.8%	22.9%
259	Batum, Nicolas	-2.2%	-1.8%	18.6%
260	Maynor, Eric	-2.5%	-3.9%	34.8%
261	Jamison, Antawn	-2.6%	-2.5%	22.1%
262	Cook, Daequan	-3.0%	-3.6%	27.5%
263	Head, Luther	-3.3%	-3.7%	25.8%
264	Howard, Juwan	-3.6%	-4.4%	28.2%
265	Elson, Francisco	-3.7%	-4.4%	27.1%
266	Kleiza, Linas	-3.7%	-3.3%	20.3%
267	Young, Nick	-3.9%	-3.1%	18.4%
268	Wallace, Ben	-3.9%	-4.2%	24.7%
269	Nelson, Jameer	-4.0%	-4.2%	23.8%
270	Robinson, Nate	-4.4%	-4.7%	24.0%
271	Beaubois, Rodrigue	-4.5%	-5.8%	29.5%
272	Jeter, Eugene	-4.8%	-4.9%	23.6%
273	Wright, Julian	-4.8%	-4.7%	22.0%
274	Bryant, Kobe	-4.9%	-6.1%	28.5%
275	Cardinal, Brian	-5.0%	-5.9%	27.0%
276	Davis, Ed	-5.1%	-4.6%	20.6%
277	Ridnour, Luke	-5.2%	-10.6%	47.0%
278	Wilkins, Damien	-5.4%	-5.8%	24.4%
279	Brooks, Aaron	-5.4%	-4.8%	20.1%
280	Stevenson, DeShawn	-5.9%	-5.4%	21.0%
281	Amundson, Louis	-6.2%	-6.4%	23.6%
282	Telfair, Sebastian	-6.7%	-13.7%	47.0%
283	Westbrook, Russell	-6.7%	-10.7%	36.6%
284	Vasquez, Greivis	-6.9%	-9.1%	30.4%
285	Flynn, Jonny	-6.9%	-14.4%	47.5%
286	Seraphin, Kevin	-7.1%	-7.6%	24.5%
287	Mbah a Moute, Luc	-7.4%	-5.9%	18.2%
288	Humphries, Kris	-7.8%	-6.5%	19.1%
289	Evans, Reggie	-8.2%	-8.7%	24.2%
290	Barnes, Matt	-8.2%	-8.4%	23.4%
291	Carter, Anthony	-8.8%	-10.7%	27.8%
292	Camby, Marcus	-8.8%	-7.8%	20.2%
293	Outlaw, Travis	-9.3%	-7.0%	17.4%
294	Duhon, Chris	-9.5%	-10.9%	26.1%
295	Blair, DeJuan	-9.8%	-8.9%	20.8%
296	Przybilla, Joel	-10.6%	-12.6%	27.3%
297	Favors, Derrick	-10.7%	-8.5%	18.1%
298	Milicic, Darko	-10.7%	-10.1%	21.5%
299	Williams, Terrence	-10.8%	-15.9%	33.5%
300	Dudley, Jared	-11.6%	-9.8%	19.3%
301	Wall, John	-11.7%	-9.7%	19.0%
302	Powell, Josh	-12.0%	-13.8%	26.2%
303	Maggette, Corey	-12.5%	-10.3%	18.9%
304	Eyenga, Christian	-12.8%	-12.6%	22.4%
305	Hansbrough, Tyler	-13.1%	-15.0%	26.2%
306	Hinrich, Kirk	-13.1%	-9.2%	16.1%
307	Bynum, Will	-13.3%	-14.2%	24.3%
308	Ford, T.J.	-13.4%	-31.5%	53.6%
309	Forbes, Gary	-13.6%	-12.8%	21.4%
310	McGuire, Dominic	-13.6%	-13.5%	22.7%
311	Bell, Raja	-13.9%	-11.7%	19.3%
312	Sanders, Larry	-14.5%	-15.0%	23.7%
313	Pondexter, Quincy	-14.6%	-15.7%	24.6%
314	Hayward, Gordon	-15.3%	-13.4%	20.1%
315	Marion, Shawn	-15.4%	-13.4%	19.9%
316	Mason, Roger	-15.4%	-22.0%	32.7%
317	Redick, J.J.	-15.5%	-12.3%	18.1%
318	Gee, Alonzo	-16.2%	-15.1%	21.4%
319	Brown, Derrick	-16.2%	-17.8%	25.0%
320	Hill, Jordan	-16.9%	-17.0%	23.0%
321	Collison, Darren	-17.4%	-39.4%	51.9%
322	Murphy, Troy	-17.4%	-20.9%	27.3%
323	Price, A.J.	-17.8%	-40.8%	52.3%
324	Gomes, Ryan	-19.8%	-17.2%	19.9%
325	Aminu, Al-Farouq	-20.0%	-18.2%	20.8%
326	Haywood, Brendan	-20.1%	-23.1%	26.3%
327	Biedrins, Andris	-20.5%	-19.0%	21.2%
328	Nocioni, Andres	-21.1%	-19.5%	21.1%
329	Webster, Martell	-24.6%	-24.9%	23.1%
330	West, Delonte	-26.6%	-34.3%	29.5%
331	Moon, Jamario	-31.3%	-27.5%	20.1%
332	Law, Acie	-32.8%	-34.5%	24.1%
333	Ariza, Trevor	-34.2%	-31.9%	21.4%
334	Graham, Stephen	-34.8%	-33.6%	22.1%
335	Haslem, Udonis	-35.0%	-52.8%	34.5%
336	Weems, Sonny	-36.2%	-30.7%	19.3%
337	Dampier, Erick	-37.5%	-46.5%	28.3%
338	Ilgauskas, Zydrunas	-37.6%	-42.3%	25.7%
339	Turner, Evan	-46.6%	-39.4%	19.3%
340	Anthony, Joel	-54.3%	-58.5%	24.6%

NBAdraft.net Top 20, By NCAA Offense

NBAdraft.Net's top 20 College Picks
ranked by Offensive Efficiency and Effective Offensive Size

Based on Adjusted Offensive Plus Minus as predicted by Offensive Rating and Usage% (via kenpom.com for college players).

Size+ is based on how Height + Weight predict offensive performance (at least, in the NCAA).

rk	exp	Player	Team	Yr	NCAA Offense		Size+	Ht"	Wt
1	1	Kyrie Irving	Duke	Fr	11.85		22%	74	180
2	8	Kemba Walker	Connecticut	Jr	11.54		16%	73	172
3	2	Derrick Williams	Arizona	So	9.86		86%	80	240
4	13	Jimmer Fredette	Brigham Young	Sr	9.47		42%	74	195
5	24	Nolan Smith	Duke	Sr	8.98		28%	74	185
6	23	Darius Morris	Michigan	So	8.93		19%	76	180
7	10	Alec Burks	Colorado	So	8.20		20%	78	185
8	11	Marcus Morris	Kansas	Jr	7.70		71%	80	225
9	14	Jordan Hamilton	Texas	So	7.51		74%	79	226
10	3	Brandon Knight	Kentucky	Fr	6.82		26%	75	185
11	20	Marshon Brooks	Providence	Sr	6.71		28%	77	190
12	16	Markieff Morris	Kansas	Jr	6.60		77%	81	232
13	18	Tobias Harris	Tennessee	Fr	5.71		64%	80	220
14	9	Tristan Thompson	Texas	Fr	5.70		72%	80	226
15	7	Kawhi Leonard	San Diego St.	So	5.24		73%	79	225
16	15	Klay Thompson	Washington St.	Jr	3.93		39%	78	200
17	25	Trey Thompkins	Georgia	Jr	3.85		90%	81	247
18	17	Chris Singleton	Florida St.	Jr	3.77		71%	81	227
19	22	Tyler Honeycutt	UCLA	So	2.34		15%	80	183
20	21	Kenneth Faried	Morehead St.	Sr	1.92		74%	80	228

I adjusted these for schedule, but did no NBA->NCAA translation or vice versa. These are based on the following regression:

predicted_Offense = Usage%*(0.92*ORTG - 0.82) - 0.029*ORTG

The Supporting Cast picks up The German's Slack - Game 6

LeBron had a bad day - but so did Dirk.

Bosh, Chalmers, and Wade are the only Miami players who appear to have a positive impact.

Raw Est APM(100) = Estimate of per-100-possessions impact
Adj Est +/- (G) = Estimate of point margin impact during the game

team	Starters	MP	TOV%	ORtg	DRtg	+/-	Raw Est APM(100)	Adj Est +/- (G)
DAL	Jason Kidd	36.3	25.8	143	108	18	5.32	3.25
DAL	Jason Terry	33.9	14.5	130	104	13	3.59	1.82
DAL	Shawn Marion	35.4	13.7	100	105	18	3.21	1.61
MIA	Chris Bosh	38.9	7.6	144	113	4	1.63	1.52
MIA	Mario Chalmers	38.5	15.8	110	111	5	1.02	1.01
DAL	Brian Cardinal	12.2	50	131	111	18	3.74	0.69
MIA	Dwyane Wade	41.1	20.8	90	112	3	0.40	0.54
DAL	Tyson Chandler	30.1	17	108	98	3	1.43	0.26
DAL	Ian Mahinmi	11.0	0	154	96	-1	0.17	-0.19
DAL	DeShawn Stevenson	12.6	0	174	104	-8	-0.51	-0.40
MIA	Eddie House	21.1	0	131	112	-1	-1.27	-0.45
DAL	Jose Juan Barea	29.6	20	117	103	-7	-0.05	-0.66
MIA	Juwan Howard	7.0	34.7	0	122	-11	-7.84	-1.10
DAL	Dirk Nowitzki	38.9	6.7	78	98	-4	-0.43	-1.17
MIA	Joel Anthony	10.9	0	63	120	-3	-5.58	-1.22
MIA	Udonis Haslem	33.9	0	119	117	-7	-1.98	-1.23
MIA	Mike Miller	8.3	0	0	119	-16	-10.02	-1.69
MIA	LeBron James	40.4	26.4	97	115	-24	-3.31	-2.58

The Biggest Game of Lebron James' life...was awful.

Dallas won by 9 points, which is 10.4 points per 100 possessions.

I split credit of the team's point margin in half, adjusted for pace, quality of opponent, and home-court-advantage.

Dallas played like a +4.98 team
Miami played like a -4.98 team

TOV%=percent of a player's possessions that ended in a turnover (basketball-reference.com's boxscore).
ORTG=offensive rating. very complex measure for efficiency
DRTG=defensive rating, similar to the above.
+/- = Plus-Minus rating, as tabulated by ESPN's box score. It shows the change in point margin while a player is on the court.

Raw est APM(100)= an estimate (using the above) of how much a player impacted his team's point margin per 100 possessions.

Adj est +/- (G) = an estimate of how much a player impacted his team's point margin per 100 possessions

team	Starters	MP	TOV%	ORtg	DRtg	+/-	Raw est APM(100)	Adj est +/- (G)
DAL	Jason Kidd	39.87	30.4	139	115	13	4.27	3.17
DAL	Tyson Chandler	38.67	0	150	117	14	3.03	2.08
DAL	Dirk Nowitzki	39.62	8.2	125	119	14	2.46	1.66
DAL	Shawn Marion	34.03	15.4	80	117	21	1.85	0.99
MIA	Mario Chalmers	23.45	12	175	128	-1	0.53	0.55
MIA	Mike Miller	23.20	16.7	143	128	0	-0.29	0.15
MIA	Juwan Howard	5.82	0	200	134	6	-0.02	0.07
DAL	Jason Terry	30.48	13.4	146	123	1	0.44	0.00
MIA	Udonis Haslem	33.00	0	140	131	0	-0.78	-0.13
MIA	Eddie House	3.47	33.3	0	95	3	-3.85	-0.23
DAL	Jose Juan Barea	25.65	8	146	126	4	0.00	-0.24
MIA	Joel Anthony	16.20	0	200	135	-9	-1.55	-0.32
DAL	Brian Cardinal	9.62	34.7	106	114	-7	-2.42	-0.57
DAL	Ian Mahinmi	8.1	0	123	123	-3	-3.70	-0.70
MIA	Dwyane Wade	34.45	18.8	126	124	-13	-1.74	-0.82
MIA	Mike Bibby	15.40	33.3	62	134	-7	-4.74	-1.33
MIA	Chris Bosh	39.38	20	113	131	-13	-2.24	-1.35
DAL	DeShawn Stevenson	13.97	0	133	127	-12	-4.44	-1.42
MIA	LeBron James	45.63	16.8	98	131	-11	-2.23	-1.56

(Here is a quick spreadsheet that explains how I currently estimate APM.)

James played nearly every minute of this game, and didn't really succeed. Per-possession, Bibby had a much worse game, however.

EDIT: By the way - these numbers are based on a prediction of these ratings.

Another Look @ Game 3

based on Engalmann's latest adjustement to Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus

raw est APM(100)=Estimate of adjusted +/- per 100
adj est +/- (G)= estimated contribution to team point margin during the game (adjusted for % of minutes played, quality of opponent, location)

team	Players	MP	TOV%	ORtg	DRtg	+/-	raw est APM(100)	adj est +/-(G)
MIA	LeBron James	45.3	20.2	104	108	1	4.11	3.73
DAL	Dirk Nowitzki	42.0	10.7	128	99	12	4.99	3.52
MIA	Dwyane Wade	38.6	0	137	101	-1	3.61	2.79
MIA	Mario Chalmers	28.8	11.1	131	110	6	3.14	1.79
DAL	Tyson Chandler	40.0	0	137	104	4	2.98	1.68
DAL	Jason Kidd	35.5	31.1	100	109	5	2.47	1.11
MIA	Udonis Haslem	29.0	12.5	86	105	5	1.70	0.94
DAL	DeShawn Stevenson	14.2	0	278	113	-7	3.06	0.62
MIA	Joel Anthony	23.1	0	108	102	3	0.99	0.41
MIA	Mike Miller	12.2	50	26	86	4	0.11	-0.01
MIA	Juwan Howard	6.4	0	146	109	6	0.05	-0.01
DAL	Brian Cardinal	0.1	0	0	116	-3	-9.17	-0.02
DAL	Shawn Marion	43.1	13.4	89	113	-1	0.84	-0.11
MIA	Chris Bosh	37.5	9	89	114	-10	-0.13	-0.22
DAL	Ian Mahinmi	8.0	0	145	115	-6	-2.64	-0.60
DAL	Peja Stojakovic	6.1	33.3	60	98	-11	-4.01	-0.63
MIA	Mike Bibby	19.1	16.7	60	101	-4	-1.65	-0.72
DAL	Jose Juan Barea	19.0	31.1	52	112	3	-1.67	-1.05
DAL	Jason Terry	32.1	0	112	109	-6	-0.75	-1.15

(Plus-minus number also gives us estimates for OnCourt +/- per 100 minus OffCourt +/- per 100, and teammate OnCourt minus OffCourt, both of which adjust the Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating, and Turnover% values)

Game 3! (Somewhat late...)

The formula is confused as to how Dallas lost. (Total contrib of around 11 versus Miami's 6).

Miami leads, 2-1.

team	Players	ORtg	DRtg	'+/-	min%	eff	contrib
DAL	Dirk Nowitzki	128	99	12	87.4%	4.54	3.97
DAL	Tyson Chandler	137	104	4	83.3%	3.35	2.79
MIA	Dwyane Wade	137	101	-1	80.5%	2.19	1.76
MIA	LeBron James	104	108	1	94.3%	1.80	1.70
DAL	Jason Kidd	100	109	5	73.9%	2.30	1.70
MIA	Mario Chalmers	131	110	6	60.1%	2.50	1.50
DAL	Shawn Marion	89	113	-1	89.9%	1.50	1.35
DAL	DeShawn Stevenson	278	113	-7	29.6%	3.42	1.01
MIA	Udonis Haslem	86	105	5	60.5%	1.44	0.87
MIA	Joel Anthony	108	102	3	48.1%	1.49	0.72
DAL	Jason Terry	112	109	-6	66.8%	0.80	0.53
MIA	Juwan Howard	146	109	6	13.4%	1.87	0.25
DAL	Ian Mahinmi	145	115	-6	16.7%	0.15	0.03
DAL	Jose Juan Barea	52	112	3	39.7%	0.02	0.01
DAL	Brian Cardinal		116	-3	0.2%	-3.69	-0.01
MIA	Mike Miller	26	86	4	25.3%	-0.38	-0.10
DAL	Peja Stojakovic	60	98	-11	12.6%	-2.22	-0.28
MIA	Mike Bibby	60	101	-4	39.8%	-0.87	-0.35
MIA	Chris Bosh	89	114	-10	78.1%	-0.53	-0.42

Game 2! (Very late...)

I finally came up with a formula that helps regress crazy values (i.e. Dirk off the court was worth -100 points per 100 possessions in game 2).


"Adjusted" +/- per 100 is a simple combination of Net +/- (ON - OFF), offensive rating, and defensive rating

DALLAS by 2, (tying the series at 1-1)

team	Starters	min%	ORtg	DRtg	+/-	Adj +/- per 100	Total +/- Contrib.
MIA	Dwyane Wade	87.8%	148	107	5	3.79	3.33
DAL	Dirk Nowitzki	87.6%	97	106	13	3.28	2.88
DAL	Tyson Chandler	79.4%	154	108	4	3.09	2.45
DAL	Jason Terry	64.8%	124	105	13	3.54	2.29
DAL	Shawn Marion	85.2%	123	106	1	2.13	1.81
MIA	Mike Bibby	46.0%	145	98	7	3.34	1.54
MIA	Chris Bosh	82.9%	71	112	3	1.49	1.23
MIA	LeBron James	82.5%	99	101	-5	1.27	1.05
DAL	Jason Kidd	78.2%	72	106	1	0.82	0.65
DAL	DeShawn Stevenson	46.1%	131	95	-5	0.82	0.38
DAL	Brendan Haywood	17.0%	65	112	5	-0.15	-0.02
DAL	Brian Cardinal	2.1%		108	-4	-3.30	-0.07
MIA	Mario Chalmers	51.9%	98	116	-7	-0.33	-0.17
DAL	Peja Stojakovic	10.3%	0	114	-7	-3.53	-0.36
DAL	Jose Barea	29.3%	82	109	-11	-1.69	-0.50
MIA	Joel Anthony	55.9%		114	2	-0.94	-0.52
MIA	Mike Miller	31.6%	0	99	-3	-1.97	-0.62
MIA	Udonis Haslem	61.3%	52	114	-12	-1.76	-1.08

GAME 1, NBA FINALS

Wayne Winston & more recently Kevin Pelton like to use +/- in their discussions on player performance. But Statistical plus-minus geeks like myself are dissatisfied with simple Net +/- ratings. It should be noted that I have not implemented any system that regresses towards the mean for small sample sizes. I will incorporate this later.

Here is how the Heat & Mavericks stack up in my combined system.

Adj. Rating = estimate of how much the player contributed to his team's point margin, per 100 possessions*
Contrib = estimate of a player's total contributions to their team's point margin during play

st. ORAPM = advanced stats prediction of offensive Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus
st. DRAPM = same^, except defensive RAPM
Statistical RTG = st. ORAPM + st. DRAPM

Net Plus-Minus = On-Court Team Efficiency Margin (per 100) minus Off-court Team Efficiency Margin

	Player		st. ORAPM	st. DRAPM	Net Plus-Minus	Statistical RTG	Adj RTG	Min%	Contrib
DAL	Dirk Nowitzki		1.76	3.60	40.63	5.35	11.84	84.3%	9.98
MIA	Chris Bosh		1.87	0.73	35.72	2.59	9.54	81.1%	7.74
MIA	LeBron James		6.25	-3.31	30.96	2.94	7.53	94.3%	7.10
DAL	Tyson Chandler		-0.99	1.66	21.46	0.67	5.82	70.4%	4.10
DAL	Jason Terry		-2.43	-4.25	30.96	-6.67	5.79	67.7%	3.92
MIA	Mario Chalmers		0.44	-0.66	16.58	-0.22	3.95	59.2%	2.33
MIA	Udonis Haslem		-3.87	-2.47	15.48	-6.34	2.30	61.6%	1.41
MIA	Dwyane Wade		2.82	-1.42	4.89	1.40	1.08	79.3%	0.86
MIA	Juwan Howard		-2.05	8.13	5.80	6.07	4.10	15.9%	0.65
DAL	Brendan Haywood		-3.68	13.72	-21.46	10.04	-0.98	29.6%	-0.29
DAL	Peja Stojakovic		-6.77	1.79	-2.81	-4.97	-1.21	30.7%	-0.37
DAL	DeShawn Stevenson		0.77	1.15	-15.61	1.92	-3.48	30.1%	-1.05
MIA	Mike Miller		0.04	-2.57	-6.63	-2.52	-2.72	42.1%	-1.14
MIA	Mike Bibby		-2.31	6.67	-25.36	4.36	-4.39	29.4%	-1.29
DAL	Jason Kidd		-2.75	0.35	-6.45	-2.40	-2.03	75.9%	-1.54
DAL	Jose Barea		-9.95	0.22	-15.48	-9.73	-5.52	37.8%	-2.09
DAL	Shawn Marion		0.84	2.59	-19.39	3.44	-3.89	73.6%	-2.86
MIA	Joel Anthony		-1.37	1.23	-41.27	-0.14	-10.30	37.2%	-3.83

*In case you were wondering, for the 2011 season, this is how statistical & Net plus-minuses predict (explain) RAPM ratings:

	Coefficients
Intercept	-0.081370214
s_ORAPM	0.160596108
s_DRAPM	0.373897645
Net per 100	0.253406036

Recent Tw-happenings

I've been posting all kinds of nonsense to twitter lately. Here are some of the more informative tweets:

1) Lineup stuff:

•  J.E. has released the first public Adjusted Lineup data. 
• The Big 3 (+2 specific players) is the 3rd worst lineup in the NBA (see above), and Miami used this lineup in the playoffs.
• This is confirmed by the fact that said lineup only scores more points than their opponents 40% of the time.

2) Jason Kidd has played the best defense (of Miami & Dallas players) during the playoffs.

3) Nick Collison is not represented well by box-score or advanced box-score statistics.

4) I put together Lebron James' year-by-year Statistical and Actual Regularized +/- numbers since '08.

Most (& Least) Valuable Players in the 2011 Playoffs, Pre-Finals Edition

EDIT: I have also posted the most & least efficient players to Google Docs (as many of the poor performances don't make it into the bottom 25 as such players lost their series).


Here are the top & bottom 25, respectively. (These are not adjusted for opponent quality).

The numbers are based on my statistical plus-minus numbers, which I convert to wins via the "Pythagorean" formula. (Although I give each player the same baseline "team" value here for simplicity).

	Player	Tm	win% added per game	playoff wins added
1	LeBron James	MIA	18.9%	2.84
2	Kevin Durant	OKC	16.5%	2.80
3	Dirk Nowitzki	DAL	14.5%	2.17
4	Dwyane Wade	MIA	12.3%	1.85
5	Jason Kidd	DAL	10.7%	1.60
6	James Harden	OKC	9.2%	1.56
7	Derrick Rose	CHI	9.6%	1.54
8	Chris Bosh	MIA	8.3%	1.25
9	Joakim Noah	CHI	6.8%	1.09
10	Chris Paul	NOH	17.7%	1.06
11	Zach Randolph	MEM	7.7%	1.00
12	Jason Terry	DAL	6.3%	0.95
13	Kevin Garnett	BOS	10.4%	0.94
14	Ray Allen	BOS	10.2%	0.91
15	Luol Deng	CHI	5.0%	0.80
16	Russell Westbrook	OKC	4.2%	0.71
17	Marc Gasol	MEM	4.8%	0.62
18	Nick Collison	OKC	3.3%	0.57
19	Shawn Marion	DAL	3.4%	0.51
20	Paul Pierce	BOS	5.4%	0.48
21	Rajon Rondo	BOS	5.3%	0.48
22	Marcus Camby	POR	7.2%	0.43
23	Dwight Howard	ORL	7.1%	0.43
24	Danny Granger	IND	8.4%	0.42
25	Tyson Chandler	DAL	2.8%	0.42

And the worst:

	Player	Tm	win% added per game	playoff wins added
1	Mike Bibby	MIA	-6.1%	-0.92
2	Kendrick Perkins	OKC	-5.1%	-0.86
3	DeShawn Stevenson	DAL	-3.9%	-0.58
4	Amare Stoudemire	NYK	-12.8%	-0.51
5	Marco Belinelli	NOH	-8.5%	-0.51
6	Sam Young	MEM	-3.6%	-0.47
7	Richard Jefferson	SAS	-7.1%	-0.43
8	J.J. Redick	ORL	-7.1%	-0.42
9	Joe Johnson	ATL	-3.5%	-0.42
10	Glen Davis	BOS	-4.4%	-0.39
11	Joel Anthony	MIA	-2.4%	-0.36
12	Emeka Okafor	NOH	-5.9%	-0.35
13	Jarrett Jack	NOH	-5.6%	-0.34
14	Tyler Hansbrough	IND	-6.7%	-0.34
15	Wilson Chandler	DEN	-6.6%	-0.33
16	Marvin Williams	ATL	-2.7%	-0.33
17	Landry Fields	NYK	-7.6%	-0.30
18	Jason Collins	ATL	-2.4%	-0.28
19	Raymond Felton	DEN	-5.7%	-0.28
20	Willie Green	NOH	-4.6%	-0.28
21	Arron Afflalo	DEN	-9.2%	-0.28
22	Lamar Odom	LAL	-2.7%	-0.27
23	J.R. Smith	DEN	-5.5%	-0.27
24	Bill Walker	NYK	-6.5%	-0.26
25	Antonio McDyess	SAS	-4.1%	-0.25

NBA PLAYOFF PLAYER RATINGS as of 5/24

Earlier today, I made a prediction formula (regression) that predicts a player's Adjusted Plus-Minus based only on the advanced stats which Basketball-Reference spits out*

The following is their estimated Adjusted Plus-Minus, their total (pace-adjusted) personal point differential, and their total value to their team per 100 possessions (eRAPM * ~Min%).

Player	Tm	~poss. played	eRAPM	total value	value per 100
LeBron James	MIA	1183	6.9	82.1	6.2
Kevin Durant	OKC	1308	6.2	81.6	5.4
Dwyane Wade	MIA	1071	5.7	61.5	4.6
Dirk Nowitzki	DAL	1048	5.7	59.7	4.5
Derrick Rose	CHI	1170	4.4	51.9	3.7
Jason Kidd	DAL	937	4.4	41.7	3.2
James Harden	OKC	967	3.9	38.2	2.5
Chris Bosh	MIA	1070	3.1	33.5	2.5
Jason Terry	DAL	883	3.8	33.4	2.5
Chris Paul	NOH	482	6.7	32.1	5.7
Zach Randolph	MEM	992	2.9	29.1	2.4
Kevin Garnett	BOS	632	4.4	27.5	3.2
Joakim Noah	CHI	967	2.8	27.5	1.9
Ray Allen	BOS	696	3.9	26.8	3.2
Luol Deng	CHI	1255	1.9	23.8	1.7
Marc Gasol	MEM	1000	1.8	18.1	1.5
Russell Westbrook	OKC	1145	1.4	15.7	1.0
Paul Pierce	BOS	661	2.1	14.0	1.6
Tyson Chandler	DAL	833	1.7	13.9	1.0
Rajon Rondo	BOS	665	2.1	13.8	1.6
Marcus Camby	POR	322	3.9	12.6	2.2
Dwight Howard	ORL	497	2.5	12.5	2.2
Danny Granger	IND	353	3.5	12.2	2.6
Jameer Nelson	ORL	416	2.9	11.9	2.1
Nick Collison	OKC	723	1.6	11.7	0.8
Manu Ginobili	SAS	335	3.3	11.2	2.4
Gerald Wallace	POR	436	2.4	10.6	1.9
Kobe Bryant	LAL	682	1.5	10.6	1.1
Shawn Marion	DAL	840	1.1	9.2	0.7
Serge Ibaka	OKC	917	1.0	9.1	0.6
LaMarcus Aldridge	POR	497	1.8	9.0	1.6
Ronnie Brewer	CHI	451	1.8	8.0	0.6
Andrew Bynum	LAL	617	1.2	7.6	0.8
Ron Artest	LAL	553	1.2	6.8	0.8
Taj Gibson	CHI	501	1.3	6.6	0.5
Carlos Boozer	CHI	927	0.7	6.6	0.5
Eric Maynor	OKC	383	1.7	6.5	0.4
Ty Lawson	DEN	322	1.8	5.9	1.2
Kirk Hinrich	ATL	333	1.8	5.9	1.0
Jose Barea	DAL	463	1.2	5.7	0.4
Jrue Holiday	PHI	362	1.5	5.6	1.2
Carmelo Anthony	NYK	299	1.6	4.8	1.3
Jeff Teague	ATL	459	1.0	4.6	0.6
Greivis Vasquez	MEM	274	1.7	4.5	0.4
Nene Hilario	DEN	312	1.3	4.2	0.9
Pau Gasol	LAL	690	0.6	4.1	0.4
Trevor Ariza	NOH	464	0.8	3.7	0.6
Andre Miller	POR	374	0.9	3.2	0.6
Brandon Roy	POR	266	1.0	2.5	0.4
James Jones	MIA	524	0.5	2.5	0.2
Elton Brand	PHI	357	0.7	2.5	0.5
Derek Fisher	LAL	626	0.4	2.3	0.2
George Hill	SAS	364	0.5	1.9	0.3
Thabo Sefolosha	OKC	636	0.3	1.8	0.1
Ryan Anderson	ORL	283	0.5	1.5	0.3
Josh Smith	ATL	844	0.1	0.7	0.1
Peja Stojakovic	DAL	607	0.1	0.5	0.0
Al Horford	ATL	902	0.0	0.3	0.0
Matt Barnes	LAL	252	0.1	0.2	0.0
Darrell Arthur	MEM	387	0.0	0.2	0.0
Brendan Haywood	DAL	451	0.0	0.1	0.0
Jermaine O'Neal	BOS	380	0.0	0.1	0.0
Jamal Crawford	ATL	690	-0.1	-0.4	0.0
Matt Bonner	SAS	237	-0.2	-0.5	-0.1
Jason Richardson	ORL	295	-0.2	-0.7	-0.1
Shawne Williams	NYK	195	-0.5	-0.9	-0.2
Shannon Brown	LAL	320	-0.4	-1.3	-0.1
Mario Chalmers	MIA	613	-0.3	-1.6	-0.1
Keith Bogans	CHI	553	-0.3	-1.7	-0.1
Steve Blake	LAL	279	-0.8	-2.2	-0.3
Andre Iguodala	PHI	351	-0.6	-2.2	-0.5
C.J. Watson	CHI	251	-0.9	-2.3	-0.2
O.J. Mayo	MEM	698	-0.4	-2.7	-0.2
Louis Williams	PHI	251	-1.2	-3.1	-0.7
Tony Parker	SAS	426	-0.7	-3.1	-0.6
Brandon Bass	ORL	268	-1.2	-3.3	-0.6
Kenyon Martin	DEN	285	-1.2	-3.3	-0.7
Jodie Meeks	PHI	241	-1.4	-3.3	-0.7
Paul George	IND	256	-1.5	-3.8	-0.8
Darren Collison	IND	281	-1.5	-4.3	-0.9
Daequan Cook	OKC	368	-1.2	-4.4	-0.3
Nazr Mohammed	OKC	285	-1.6	-4.5	-0.3
Nicolas Batum	POR	291	-1.5	-4.5	-0.8
Tony Allen	MEM	674	-0.7	-4.6	-0.4
Carl Landry	NOH	410	-1.2	-4.8	-0.8
Gary Neal	SAS	214	-2.3	-4.8	-0.9
Toney Douglas	NYK	216	-2.3	-4.9	-1.3
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	MIA	200	-2.5	-5.0	-0.6
Danilo Gallinari	DEN	285	-1.8	-5.1	-1.1
Wesley Matthews	POR	389	-1.4	-5.6	-1.0
Mike Conley	MEM	977	-0.6	-5.8	-0.5
Tim Duncan	SAS	409	-1.4	-5.8	-1.0
Shane Battier	MEM	653	-0.9	-5.8	-0.5
Omer Asik	CHI	285	-2.1	-5.9	-0.4
Zaza Pachulia	ATL	376	-1.6	-6.0	-0.6
Thaddeus Young	PHI	245	-2.5	-6.0	-1.3
Kyle Korver	CHI	507	-1.2	-6.1	-0.4
Delonte West	BOS	328	-2.0	-6.4	-0.8
Hedo Turkoglu	ORL	403	-1.6	-6.6	-1.2
Roy Hibbert	IND	254	-2.6	-6.6	-1.4
Jeff Green	BOS	333	-2.1	-7.1	-0.8
Antonio McDyess	SAS	279	-2.6	-7.2	-1.3
Lamar Odom	LAL	551	-1.4	-7.9	-0.8
Raymond Felton	DEN	293	-2.8	-8.2	-1.7
Jason Collins	ATL	304	-2.7	-8.2	-0.7
Marvin Williams	ATL	416	-2.3	-9.5	-0.8
Wilson Chandler	DEN	222	-4.3	-9.5	-2.0
Jarrett Jack	NOH	214	-4.6	-9.8	-1.7
Tyler Hansbrough	IND	316	-3.1	-9.8	-2.1
Emeka Okafor	NOH	362	-2.8	-10.3	-1.8
Glen Davis	BOS	368	-3.1	-11.4	-1.3
Joe Johnson	ATL	958	-1.3	-12.0	-1.1
Joel Anthony	MIA	817	-1.5	-12.1	-0.9
J.J. Redick	ORL	231	-5.3	-12.3	-2.2
Richard Jefferson	SAS	339	-3.7	-12.4	-2.2
Sam Young	MEM	493	-2.7	-13.5	-1.1
DeShawn Stevenson	DAL	395	-3.7	-14.6	-1.1
Marco Belinelli	NOH	333	-4.5	-14.8	-2.6
Amare Stoudemire	NYK	258	-5.9	-15.2	-4.0
Mike Bibby	MIA	601	-4.0	-24.2	-1.8
Kendrick Perkins	OKC	869	-2.9	-25.3	-1.7

I also found the relative team ratings during the playoffs according to this system:

Tm	Est. Efficiency Margin
DAL	11.31
MIA	10.15
OKC	8.59
CHI	7.65
BOS	6.74
POR	4.92
LAL	2.18
MEM	1.59
ORL	0.51
NOH	-0.70
PHI	-1.38
ATL	-1.49
IND	-2.63
SAS	-3.25
DEN	-3.40
NYK	-4.29

MATH:

 *I used Basketball Reference's '07-'11 career advanced stats and Engalmann's Regularized three-year offensive and defensive +/-, for all players with >1000 minutes played. I made a regression (with no intercept), gradually weaning out variables with a P-value of >.05, and the following is the result:

(Offense has an R^2 of ~.6, Defense of ~.4)

coefficient	value
TRB%	3.282424852
ORB%	-1.704972232
DRB%	-1.550130287
STL%	1.12274153
ORTGxUsg	1.062903376
USG%	-0.945778193
TS% out of 100	-0.361792241
BLK%	0.247314245
eFG% out of 100	0.135585541
ORTG	0.085543135
TOV%	0.078829447
DRTG	-0.036343776

Win Shares per 48 Minutes versus Easy Player Ratings

Since Win-Shares per 48 minutes and my Easy Player Ratings use the exact same data (although EPR also adds minutes per game) to calculate player "efficiency," I thought I would compare the two.

I took all NBA players from in the 3-point era who played more than 1000 minutes and looked at their WS/48 and EPR values. From there, I just had a look at the top 100 in Win-Shares per 48.

Most notably, David Robinson (3.36 EPR) beats out Michael Jordan (3.27 EPR), barely -- this is somewhat intuitive, as Jordan's old years in Washington significantly decrease his "average," likely from his poor defensive numbers.




Now here are the 10 players in the top 100 who WS/48 comparatively likes the most:

	Player	From	To	USG%	ORtg	Points Prod Per 100	DRtg	MP		WS/48	(rk)		EPR	(rk)	difference
1	Leon Powe	2007	2011	20.4	115	23.46	103	13.9		0.174	33		1.17	88	-55
2	Steve Mix	1980	1983	21.7	113	24.521	103	17.2		0.168	39		1.18	87	-48
3	Marcin Gortat	2008	2011	15.3	116	17.748	102	17.2		0.162	46		1.17	89	-43
4	Steve Nash	1997	2011	21.2	119	25.228	110	31.3		0.168	39		1.22	80	-41
5	Kevin Love	2009	2011	22.1	117	25.857	109	29.8		0.163	45		1.19	86	-41
6	Mark Price	1987	1998	22.8	116	26.448	109	29.9		0.158	52		1.14	93	-41
7	Ryan Anderson	2009	2011	20.7	115	23.805	105	18.9		0.157	53		1.08	94	-41
8	Amir Johnson	2006	2011	14.3	122	17.446	107	17.8		0.154	61		0.80	99	-38
9	Carl Landry	2008	2011	20.5	117	23.985	108	24.9		0.155	60		1.04	95	-35
10	Todd MacCulloch	2000	2003	17.7	113	20.001	100	15.4		0.166	43		1.32	74	-31

Unfortunately, Steve Nash's lower usage and nearly non-existent defensive stats underrate him in EPR. Personally, I think Nash is in the top 5 offensive players of all time, which his usage and Offensive Rating do not capture well. Not sure where the rest of these guys fall - it could be because of low minutes-played, but that term is not worth all that much.


Here is a look at the players in the top 100 who the EPR system likes more than WS/48:

	Player	From	To	USG%	ORtg	Points Prod Per 100	DRtg	MP		WS/48	(rk)		EPR	(rk)	difference
1	Patrick Ewing*	1986	2002	28	106	29.68	99	34.3		0.15	77		1.83	28	49
2	Jack Sikma	1980	1991	20.9	110	22.99	102	33.7		0.149	82		1.58	44	38
3	Scottie Pippen*	1988	2004	22.5	108	24.3	102	34.9		0.146	94		1.49	57	37
4	Eddie Jones	1995	2008	20.1	111	22.311	103	34.4		0.147	89		1.52	53	36
5	Dennis Rodman*	1987	2000	11.4	114	12.996	100	31.7		0.15	77		1.59	42	35
6	Horace Grant	1988	2004	15.2	117	17.784	104	33.2		0.147	89		1.51	54	35
7	Dikembe Mutombo	1992	2009	15	111	16.65	99	30.8		0.153	69		1.72	35	34
8	Jeff Ruland	1982	1993	22.3	109	24.307	102	33.4		0.149	82		1.53	51	31
9	Dominique Wilkins*	1983	1999	30.3	112	33.936	108	35.5		0.148	85		1.45	60	25
10	Peja Stojakovic	1999	2011	21.5	114	24.51	106	33.5		0.147	89		1.41	66	23

EPR likes moderately high usage at average offensive rating, which explains Ewing near the top. In my regression, Ewing's efficiency + usage is above the threshold of having negative (relative) impact. Not quite sure what to make of the rest.



At any rate, here is the entire list of the top 100 players by WS/48

Player	From	To	USG%	ORtg	Points Prod Per 100	DRtg	MP		WS/48	(rk)		EPR	(rk)
David Robinson*	1990	2003	26.2	116	30.39	96	34.7		0.25	1		3.36	1
Michael Jordan*	1985	2003	33.3	118	39.29	103	38.3		0.25	1		3.27	2
LeBron James	2004	2011	31.8	115	36.57	102	40.1		0.227	4		2.94	3
Tim Duncan	1998	2011	27.8	110	30.58	95	35.8		0.216	6		2.92	4
Larry Bird*	1980	1992	26.5	115	30.48	101	38.4		0.203	13		2.69	5
Chris Paul	2006	2011	23.8	121	28.80	104	37.1		0.233	3		2.67	6
Dirk Nowitzki	1999	2011	27	117	31.59	103	36.5		0.214	8		2.61	7
Karl Malone*	1986	2004	29.4	113	33.22	101	37.2		0.205	12		2.58	8
Magic Johnson*	1980	1996	22.3	121	26.98	104	36.7		0.225	5		2.53	9
Manu Ginobili	2003	2011	25.1	115	28.87	99	28.1		0.214	8		2.52	10
Shaquille O'Neal	1993	2011	29.5	113	33.34	101	34.7		0.208	11		2.49	11
Yao Ming	2003	2011	26.8	112	30.02	99	32.5		0.2	14		2.43	12
Dwight Howard	2005	2011	23.2	111	25.75	98	36		0.188	19		2.42	13
Charles Barkley*	1985	2000	24.8	119	29.51	105	36.7		0.216	6		2.39	14
Kevin Garnett	1996	2011	25.2	111	27.97	99	36.7		0.191	18		2.39	15
Hakeem Olajuwon*	1985	2002	27.1	108	29.27	98	35.7		0.177	30		2.23	16
Arvydas Sabonis*	1996	2003	22.9	112	25.65	97	24.2		0.2	14		2.23	17
Julius Erving*	1980	1987	26.9	112	30.13	102	34.1		0.182	22		2.08	18
Dwyane Wade	2004	2011	32.5	111	36.08	104	37.6		0.193	16		2.06	19
John Stockton*	1985	2003	18.9	121	22.87	104	31.8		0.209	10		2.05	20
Player	From	To	USG%	ORtg	Points Prod Per 100	DRtg	MP		WS/48	(rk)		EPR	(rk)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*	1980	1989	24.2	116	28.07	104	32.6		0.182	22		2.03	21
Pau Gasol	2002	2011	23.6	115	27.14	104	35.9		0.179	26		2.00	22
Kobe Bryant	1997	2011	31.5	112	35.28	105	36.4		0.187	20		1.97	23
Adrian Dantley*	1980	1991	26.8	120	32.16	110	36		0.192	17		1.95	24
Shawn Marion	2000	2011	21.1	111	23.42	101	36.3		0.162	46		1.91	25
Paul Pierce	1999	2011	27.8	110	30.58	103	37		0.167	41		1.84	26
Sidney Moncrief	1980	1991	20.6	119	24.51	105	30.2		0.187	20		1.83	27
Patrick Ewing*	1986	2002	28	106	29.68	99	34.3		0.15	77		1.83	28
Clyde Drexler*	1984	1998	25.4	114	28.96	105	34.6		0.173	34		1.82	29
Moses Malone*	1980	1995	26	114	29.64	105	33.5		0.179	26		1.82	30
Larry Nance	1982	1994	20.6	116	23.90	104	33.4		0.171	36		1.81	31
Amare Stoudemire	2003	2011	26.9	114	30.67	106	34.6		0.177	30		1.77	32
Kevin McHale*	1981	1993	22.4	118	26.43	106	31		0.18	24		1.77	33
Alonzo Mourning	1993	2008	25.6	108	27.65	100	31		0.166	43		1.74	34
Dikembe Mutombo	1992	2009	15	111	16.65	99	30.8		0.153	69		1.72	35
Brad Daugherty	1987	1994	22.2	114	25.31	105	36.5		0.156	56		1.70	36
Reggie Miller	1988	2005	21.6	121	26.14	109	34.3		0.176	32		1.68	37
Elton Brand	2000	2011	24	111	26.64	104	36.9		0.156	56		1.64	38
Chauncey Billups	1998	2011	22	118	25.96	107	32.3		0.179	26		1.64	39
Carlos Boozer	2003	2011	23.9	111	26.53	103	32.6		0.159	51		1.63	40
Player	From	To	USG%	ORtg	Points Prod Per 100	DRtg	MP		WS/48	(rk)		EPR	(rk)
Chris Bosh	2004	2011	24.8	113	28.02	106	36.9		0.16	49		1.62	41
Dennis Rodman*	1987	2000	11.4	114	13.00	100	31.7		0.15	77		1.59	42
Greg Oden	2009	2010	19.7	117	23.05	103	22.1		0.18	24		1.58	43
Jack Sikma	1980	1991	20.9	110	22.99	102	33.7		0.149	82		1.58	44
Andrew Bynum	2006	2011	18.5	117	21.65	103	24.3		0.172	35		1.57	45
Bob Lanier*	1980	1984	21	112	23.52	102	28.1		0.161	48		1.57	46
Robert Parish*	1980	1997	21.2	113	23.96	103	29		0.157	53		1.56	47
Andrei Kirilenko	2002	2011	18.9	112	21.17	102	30.8		0.156	56		1.56	48
Artis Gilmore*	1980	1988	18.4	119	21.90	106	30.9		0.167	41		1.54	49
Bobby Jones	1980	1986	17.1	116	19.84	102	24.2		0.17	37		1.54	50
Jeff Ruland	1982	1993	22.3	109	24.31	102	33.4		0.149	82		1.53	51
Kevin Durant	2008	2011	29.8	111	33.08	107	38		0.154	61		1.53	52
Eddie Jones	1995	2008	20.1	111	22.31	103	34.4		0.147	89		1.52	53
Horace Grant	1988	2004	15.2	117	17.78	104	33.2		0.147	89		1.51	54
Dan Issel*	1980	1985	24.9	118	29.38	109	29.9		0.17	37		1.50	55
Kermit Washington	1980	1988	15.9	114	18.13	102	29.3		0.154	61		1.50	56
Scottie Pippen*	1988	2004	22.5	108	24.30	102	34.9		0.146	94		1.49	57
Al Horford	2008	2011	17.5	116	20.30	105	33.8		0.154	61		1.48	58
Kevin Johnson	1988	2000	22.6	118	26.67	109	34.1		0.178	29		1.47	59
Dominique Wilkins*	1983	1999	30.3	112	33.94	108	35.5		0.148	85		1.45	60
Player	From	To	USG%	ORtg	Points Prod Per 100	DRtg	MP		WS/48	(rk)		EPR	(rk)
Bill Laimbeer	1981	1994	16.9	115	19.44	104	31.8		0.149	82		1.43	61
Ray Allen	1997	2011	24.5	114	27.93	108	37		0.154	61		1.43	62
Joakim Noah	2008	2011	15.4	115	17.71	102	26.2		0.16	49		1.42	63
Nene Hilario	2003	2011	18.1	113	20.45	103	29.6		0.152	72		1.42	64
Blake Griffin	2011	2011	27.3	111	30.30	107	38		0.152	72		1.41	65
Peja Stojakovic	1999	2011	21.5	114	24.51	106	33.5		0.147	89		1.41	66
Tracy McGrady	1998	2011	29.6	108	31.97	104	33.7		0.154	61		1.40	67
Shawn Kemp	1990	2003	25	106	26.50	100	27.9		0.147	89		1.39	68
Brandon Roy	2007	2011	25.4	116	29.46	110	35.6		0.157	53		1.37	69
Marques Johnson	1980	1990	24	112	26.88	106	34		0.15	77		1.37	70
Player	From	To	USG%	ORtg	Points Prod Per 100	DRtg	MP		WS/48	(rk)		EPR	(rk)
Detlef Schrempf	1986	2001	20.3	117	23.75	107	29.6		0.156	56		1.33	71
Paul Millsap	2007	2011	19.7	114	22.46	104	26		0.151	74		1.32	72
Vince Carter	1999	2011	29	109	31.61	106	36.4		0.146	94		1.32	73
Todd MacCulloch	2000	2003	17.7	113	20.00	100	15.4		0.166	43		1.32	74
Mehmet Okur	2003	2011	21.6	113	24.41	105	29.1		0.146	94		1.31	75
Scot Pollard	1998	2008	12.5	114	14.25	99	16.5		0.153	69		1.27	76
Cedric Maxwell	1980	1988	16.9	118	19.94	106	28.7		0.154	61		1.27	77
Anderson Varejao	2005	2011	13.7	115	15.76	102	24.7		0.151	74		1.26	78
Gary Payton	1991	2007	22.5	111	24.98	106	35.3		0.148	85		1.24	79
Steve Nash	1997	2011	21.2	119	25.23	110	31.3		0.168	39		1.22	80
Player	From	To	USG%	ORtg	Points Prod Per 100	DRtg	MP		WS/48	(rk)		EPR	(rk)
Jeff Hornacek	1987	2000	19.7	117	23.05	108	31.5		0.154	61		1.21	81
Brad Miller	1999	2011	18.4	114	20.98	105	28.6		0.15	77		1.20	82
Serge Ibaka	2010	2011	15.9	115	18.29	103	22.8		0.153	69		1.20	83
Maurice Cheeks	1980	1993	15.4	117	18.02	106	31.8		0.146	94		1.19	84
Calvin Natt	1980	1990	21.3	114	24.28	107	31.4		0.146	94		1.19	85
Kevin Love	2009	2011	22.1	117	25.86	109	29.8		0.163	45		1.19	86
Steve Mix	1980	1983	21.7	113	24.52	103	17.2		0.168	39		1.18	87
Leon Powe	2007	2011	20.4	115	23.46	103	13.9		0.174	33		1.17	88
Marcin Gortat	2008	2011	15.3	116	17.75	102	17.2		0.162	46		1.17	89
Terrell Brandon	1992	2002	23.9	110	26.29	105	29.8		0.147	89		1.15	90
David Lee	2006	2011	19	117	22.23	108	31		0.148	85		1.14	91
Kevin Martin	2005	2011	24.7	117	28.90	111	31.2		0.151	74		1.14	92
Mark Price	1987	1998	22.8	116	26.45	109	29.9		0.158	52		1.14	93
Ryan Anderson	2009	2011	20.7	115	23.81	105	18.9		0.157	53		1.08	94
Carl Landry	2008	2011	20.5	117	23.99	108	24.9		0.155	60		1.04	95
Terry Porter	1986	2002	19.1	115	21.97	107	27.8		0.15	77		1.01	96
Ricky Pierce	1983	1998	25	116	29.00	110	24.4		0.146	94		0.96	97
Kiki Vandeweghe	1981	1993	23.6	119	28.08	113	30.3		0.148	85		0.96	98
Amir Johnson	2006	2011	14.3	122	17.45	107	17.8		0.154	61		0.80	99
Ty Lawson	2010	2011	19	118	22.42	110	23.6		0.146	94		0.69	100