All first-round series except San Antonio/Memphis have been decided. Serieses? Easiest battle is Chicago over Atlanta in 5. Closest se...

Hello all! I am currently finishing up my 8th semester at Appalachian State, and graduating in a couple of weeks. I've been busy with...

I simulated the NBA playoffs, under a few assumptions. 1) Memphis makes the playoffs 2) There are no tie-breakers and teams are seeded ac...

The boys over at the APBR metrics board are asking who should be MVP. I think that if we use the ridge-adjusted plus minus ratings, we can g...

EDIT/UPDATE: I'm not very happy with the math here. I have constructed a very lazy RPI, that is more theoretically sound than the RPI. ...

The (real) NCAA tournament starts in about one hour. To kick it off, I present my Overtime% for the first round. Each game is ranked by th...

I've updated the LRMC simulation to only include Clemson, and weaken BYU & Belmont (by the equivalent of 1 point per 100 possessions...

The majority of huge-pool winners accurately predict the Final Four...here is a sampling of the top (seven) possible final fours that my LRM...

Here are  some more numbers to help you make your picks: "EW" means expected wins ('opening' round not included). -Over...

This post is dedicated to my Mother, who wants my tournament picks :-D. I have looked at every pick and noted its overall value in ESPN'...

Wow, what a bracket. I'll be very quick here (forgive me if I miss something important) , as I've got to get moving on my official p...

As it gets down to crunch time for the teams who are on the bubble, and as the 68-team-field will be together in under 100 hours, I present ...

There are several teams who simultaneously impress statistical rankings, but do not impress poll-rankings. Here are all the teams who are in...

I've updated my Offensive Decision% formula to include Offensive Rebounds. A field goal attempt is now only considered one 'decision...

I have previously done work on estimating how much statistics (specifically, the Four Factors + 2 more) impact efficiency. My prior method ...

Just put together another round of player offensive ratings - data via KenPom.com . It adjusts for quality of defense and usage% - the final...

This is using my pre-tournament LRMC simulation from last year. See my last blog post for the method,. I still haven't come up with a g...

This is going to be a shortish post considering the amount of new analysis I'm introducing, but I would like to start offering some tool...

Finally, some good old fashioned statistics that don't have really good theory behind them! Often-times, when I'm watching a basketb...

EDIT/UPDATE: This formula, like Dean Oliver's is based on some good theory, but as I have examined it more, it is a very poor measure o...