For all your fancy-pants statistical needs.

Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN

Simulated Tournament, LRMC Style

I simulated the NCAA tournament 10,000 times based on the LRMC ratings. Just a pure-point-margin version of Ken Pomeroy's table. Use responsibly!



ro32s16e8f4title gamechampExp. Wins
1Indiana100%87%70%55%31%19%3.62
2Florida96%85%72%52%34%22%3.61
3Gonzaga100%78%63%48%31%18%3.37
4Louisville100%77%63%41%23%11%3.16
5Kansas99%83%53%24%12%6%2.77
6Miami (FL)95%73%54%21%8%3%2.55
7Ohio St.94%71%48%21%11%4%2.50
8Duke96%57%39%21%10%4%2.28
9Michigan87%60%30%11%5%2%1.95
10Syracuse90%62%19%10%3%1%1.85
11Georgetown90%56%14%5%2%1%1.67
12Creighton77%37%23%11%5%2%1.55
13Michigan St.79%45%18%7%3%1%1.52
14Wisconsin68%49%16%9%4%1%1.46
15New Mexico81%41%17%5%2%0%1.45
16Saint Louis73%38%10%3%1%0%1.26
17Oklahoma St.64%38%11%4%1%0%1.18
18Marquette56%33%13%3%1%0%1.05
19VCU65%27%9%3%1%0%1.05
20UNLV67%27%5%2%1%0%1.02
21Arizona53%30%12%3%1%0%1.01
22Bucknell58%26%9%2%0%0%0.95
23Kansas St.64%24%4%2%1%0%0.95
24Pittsburgh59%15%8%4%2%1%0.89
25San Diego St.57%25%5%1%0%0%0.88
26Iowa St.58%18%9%2%1%0%0.87
27N.C. State68%11%5%2%1%0%0.86
28Belmont47%25%9%2%1%0%0.84
29North Carolina64%13%4%1%0%0%0.81
30Davidson44%24%8%2%0%0%0.78
31Minnesota61%10%5%1%0%0%0.78
32Colorado53%15%7%1%0%0%0.76
33Colorado St.52%12%7%3%1%0%0.75
34Middle Tenn. St.35%20%8%3%1%0%0.68
35Missouri48%10%6%2%1%0%0.67
36Memphis40%17%5%1%0%0%0.64
37Butler42%16%4%1%0%0%0.64
38Illinois47%11%5%1%0%0%0.63
39Oklahoma43%16%2%1%0%0%0.62
40Notre Dame42%10%4%1%0%0%0.56
41Oregon36%16%3%1%0%0%0.55
42Wichita St.41%7%4%2%1%0%0.55
43Mississippi32%17%3%1%0%0%0.54
44Akron35%10%2%0%0%0%0.48
45UCLA39%4%2%0%0%0%0.46
46St. Mary's25%12%4%1%0%0%0.43
47California33%9%1%0%0%0%0.43
48Villanova36%4%1%0%0%0%0.42
49New Mexico St.27%8%1%0%0%0%0.36
50Temple32%2%1%0%0%0%0.35
51Cincinnati23%5%2%0%0%0%0.31
52Boise St.21%6%1%0%0%0%0.28
53Valparaiso21%6%1%0%0%0%0.28
54Harvard19%4%0%0%0%0%0.23
55La Salle15%4%0%0%0%0%0.19
56South Dakota St.13%3%0%0%0%0%0.17
57Fla Gulf Coast10%3%0%0%0%0%0.13
58Montana10%2%0%0%0%0%0.13
59Iona6%2%0%0%0%0%0.08
60Pacific5%1%0%0%0%0%0.06
61Northwestern St.4%1%0%0%0%0%0.05
62Albany4%1%0%0%0%0%0.04
63West. Kentucky1%0%0%0%0%0%0.01
64Southern0%0%0%0%0%0%0.00
65LIU Brooklyn0%0%0%0%0%0%0.00
66Liberty0%0%0%0%0%0%0.00
67N.C. A&T0%0%0%0%0%0%0.00

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