I simulated the NCAA tournament 10,000 times based on the LRMC ratings. Just a pure-point-margin version of Ken Pomeroy's table. Use responsibly!
ro32 | s16 | e8 | f4 | title game | champ | Exp. Wins | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Indiana | 100% | 87% | 70% | 55% | 31% | 19% | 3.62 |
2 | Florida | 96% | 85% | 72% | 52% | 34% | 22% | 3.61 |
3 | Gonzaga | 100% | 78% | 63% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 3.37 |
4 | Louisville | 100% | 77% | 63% | 41% | 23% | 11% | 3.16 |
5 | Kansas | 99% | 83% | 53% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2.77 |
6 | Miami (FL) | 95% | 73% | 54% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 2.55 |
7 | Ohio St. | 94% | 71% | 48% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 2.50 |
8 | Duke | 96% | 57% | 39% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2.28 |
9 | Michigan | 87% | 60% | 30% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1.95 |
10 | Syracuse | 90% | 62% | 19% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1.85 |
11 | Georgetown | 90% | 56% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1.67 |
12 | Creighton | 77% | 37% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1.55 |
13 | Michigan St. | 79% | 45% | 18% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1.52 |
14 | Wisconsin | 68% | 49% | 16% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1.46 |
15 | New Mexico | 81% | 41% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.45 |
16 | Saint Louis | 73% | 38% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.26 |
17 | Oklahoma St. | 64% | 38% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.18 |
18 | Marquette | 56% | 33% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.05 |
19 | VCU | 65% | 27% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.05 |
20 | UNLV | 67% | 27% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.02 |
21 | Arizona | 53% | 30% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.01 |
22 | Bucknell | 58% | 26% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.95 |
23 | Kansas St. | 64% | 24% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0.95 |
24 | Pittsburgh | 59% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0.89 |
25 | San Diego St. | 57% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.88 |
26 | Iowa St. | 58% | 18% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0.87 |
27 | N.C. State | 68% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0.86 |
28 | Belmont | 47% | 25% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0.84 |
29 | North Carolina | 64% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.81 |
30 | Davidson | 44% | 24% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.78 |
31 | Minnesota | 61% | 10% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.78 |
32 | Colorado | 53% | 15% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.76 |
33 | Colorado St. | 52% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.75 |
34 | Middle Tenn. St. | 35% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.68 |
35 | Missouri | 48% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0.67 |
36 | Memphis | 40% | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.64 |
37 | Butler | 42% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.64 |
38 | Illinois | 47% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.63 |
39 | Oklahoma | 43% | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.62 |
40 | Notre Dame | 42% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.56 |
41 | Oregon | 36% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.55 |
42 | Wichita St. | 41% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0.55 |
43 | Mississippi | 32% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.54 |
44 | Akron | 35% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.48 |
45 | UCLA | 39% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.46 |
46 | St. Mary's | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.43 |
47 | California | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.43 |
48 | Villanova | 36% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.42 |
49 | New Mexico St. | 27% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.36 |
50 | Temple | 32% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.35 |
51 | Cincinnati | 23% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.31 |
52 | Boise St. | 21% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.28 |
53 | Valparaiso | 21% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.28 |
54 | Harvard | 19% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.23 |
55 | La Salle | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.19 |
56 | South Dakota St. | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.17 |
57 | Fla Gulf Coast | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.13 |
58 | Montana | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.13 |
59 | Iona | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.08 |
60 | Pacific | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.06 |
61 | Northwestern St. | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.05 |
62 | Albany | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.04 |
63 | West. Kentucky | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.01 |
64 | Southern | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
65 | LIU Brooklyn | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
66 | Liberty | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
67 | N.C. A&T | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
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