All first-round series except San Antonio/Memphis have been decided.
Serieses?
Easiest battle is Chicago over Atlanta in 5.
Closest series is the Los Angeles over Dallas in 6.
Praise for The Basketball Distribution:
"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN
Not Exactly On Hiatus
Hello all!
I am currently finishing up my 8th semester at Appalachian State, and graduating in a couple of weeks.
I've been busy with non-basketball...or at least I've been attempting to be busy with non-basketball.
I'll be writing a bit for The Coolest Basketball Site (TM) this summer, which I am extremely excited about.
Anyways, here are my silly opinions on basketball as the playoffs begin:
-Nathan
I am currently finishing up my 8th semester at Appalachian State, and graduating in a couple of weeks.
I've been busy with non-basketball...or at least I've been attempting to be busy with non-basketball.
I'll be writing a bit for The Coolest Basketball Site (TM) this summer, which I am extremely excited about.
Anyways, here are my silly opinions on basketball as the playoffs begin:
- Kevin Love is NOT the MIP. He's not even in the 100 best players in the league. (Individual rebounds and Rebound% are not all that telling). And he is most DEFINITELY not the MVP *shudder*.
- Derrick Rose is not the MVP. Even if you're supposed to choose "Best player on the Best team," he does not appear to be that. He is a close overall candidate by some agreeable measures, however.
- Oh, and, with Harrison Barnes staying in Chapel Hill, the pre-season rankings will look something like this:
- #1: North Carolina
- #2: Ohio St.
- ...
- ...
- #1,000: Eventual National Champion
-Nathan
Playoff Odds as of April 8th
I simulated the NBA playoffs, under a few assumptions.
1) Memphis makes the playoffs
2) There are no tie-breakers and teams are seeded according to conference standings
2) The regularized +/- 2011 numbers are accurate
(5:38p EST) - NEW RESULTS, updated with estimated playoff minutes
EDIT: A bit on the method.
I took all players who aren't out for the season, and converted their minutes into estimated playoff minutes (per DSMok1's suggestion), which I then had to adjust to force each team's game minutes to sum to 240 total minutes.
I then looked at each player's regularized +/- numbers, and gave them a contribution of Projected Minutes% * (Offense+Defense).
I then set the league average to zero, and each team was given their own "RAPM" rating. This was used to simulate the playoffs via a spreadsheet made by DSMok1 which I modified.
1) Memphis makes the playoffs
2) There are no tie-breakers and teams are seeded according to conference standings
2) The regularized +/- 2011 numbers are accurate
(5:38p EST) - NEW RESULTS, updated with estimated playoff minutes
EDIT: A bit on the method.
I took all players who aren't out for the season, and converted their minutes into estimated playoff minutes (per DSMok1's suggestion), which I then had to adjust to force each team's game minutes to sum to 240 total minutes.
I then looked at each player's regularized +/- numbers, and gave them a contribution of Projected Minutes% * (Offense+Defense).
I then set the league average to zero, and each team was given their own "RAPM" rating. This was used to simulate the playoffs via a spreadsheet made by DSMok1 which I modified.
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About Me
- Nathan
- I wish my heart were as often large as my hands.