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Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN

NBA Projections v1.0 - "The Three Facets"

Happy NBA day everyone!

There are three different projections I have here.

-First is "playoff adjusted efficiency differential" - which estimates how a lineup minutes will alter during the playoffs and adjusts accordingly.
-Second is "regular season eff. differential" - which includes the raw lineup of players and minutes projections
-Third is projected wins, which takes the 2nd and applies it to this season's schedule.

-Yes, I did adjust Cleveland so Varejao gets more minutes and Clark gets less.
-Enjoy responsibly!

The Basketball Distribution Season Projections v0.2, (Earl Clark Edition)

-Slight somewhat arbitrary adjustment for Usage (i.e. Brooklyn's 112% usage ain't gonna work).
-Beasley's minutes cut from 30% to 10%
-Fixed some errant players that aren't projected to be in the league

The main issue I see here is that my minutes projection has Earl Clark fronting a TON of minutes for Cleveland, and that Varejao is (understandably) projected to sustain some injuries. I'll hopefully adjust this some. I also think my xRAPM projection for Earl Clark is unfairly low.

Added "Starters Wins Added" and "Bench Wins Added" which is the combined contribution of "wins above 41" by the starters (top-5 minutes) and bench (the rest).

The Basketball Distribution Season Projections v0.1, (The "Laugh it up, fuzzball" Edition)

I'll go ahead and admit right off the bat that this does not pass the laugh test.
For obvious reasons (Miami), my projections will make you chuckle a little.

While my player values are likely very accurate (projections for xRAPM), my minutes projections are not. I have a feeling that Ray Allen and Michael Beasley and Norris Cole will all get less playing time this season than my source for minutes suggests.
EDIT: IMPORTANT OTHER NOTICE: This doesn't take into account offenses who won't be able to use as many possessions as their new players inherently use (i.e. Brooklyn).

Without further ado, here they be:

Eff differential = Expected win differential based on projected xRAPM and projected minutes for all players.
pWins = Pythagorean wins, or, the # of wins expected were all teams to play an even schedule
>Avg Players = Total projected contribution of all above-zero xRAPM players
Total projected contribution of all below-zero xRAPM players
Bench win differential = how much the below average players on a team impact expected win total, versus the league average.

Miami's below-average players are...ahem...not awesome.


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