For all your fancy-pants statistical needs.

Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN

Updated Playoff Odds, 4/29

All first-round series except San Antonio/Memphis have been decided.


Easiest battle is Chicago over Atlanta in 5.
Closest series is the Los Angeles over Dallas in 6.

Not Exactly On Hiatus

Hello all!

I am currently finishing up my 8th semester at Appalachian State, and graduating in a couple of weeks.
I've been busy with non-basketball...or at least I've been attempting to be busy with non-basketball.

I'll be writing a bit for The Coolest Basketball Site (TM) this summer, which I am extremely excited about.

Anyways, here are my silly opinions on basketball as the playoffs begin:


Playoff Odds as of April 8th

I simulated the NBA playoffs, under a few assumptions.

1) Memphis makes the playoffs
2) There are no tie-breakers and teams are seeded according to conference standings
2) The regularized +/- 2011 numbers are accurate

(5:38p EST) - NEW RESULTS, updated with estimated playoff minutes

EDIT: A bit on the method.

I took all players who aren't out for the season, and converted their minutes into estimated playoff minutes (per DSMok1's suggestion), which I then had to adjust to force each team's game minutes to sum to 240 total minutes.

I then looked at each player's regularized +/- numbers, and gave them a contribution of Projected Minutes% * (Offense+Defense).

I then set the league average to zero, and each team was given their own "RAPM" rating. This was used to simulate the playoffs via a spreadsheet made by DSMok1 which I modified.


About Me

I wish my heart were as often large as my hands.