For all your fancy-pants statistical needs.

Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN

Y2YWCF: A Quick Note on Regression to the Mean

"They gained Kevin Durant and they're going to win LESS games? No way!!"


This logic on its own is incorrect for many reasons. We will call it the Year to Year Win Correlation Fallacy (or Y2YWCF* for short).The most important reason this statement should be is because of is regression to the mean.

Single-year-win totals are subject to variance - for this example, we would statistically assume Warriors had some things go their way they probably won't have this season.

Here's the breakdown of year-to-year win totals, via basketball reference, since the 30-team ERA, (2011 adjusted for lockout):

(By prior year and following year, I just mean one year and the following year)

Using this chart, we can see how a typical team regresses.

In fact, a 73-win team would be expected to only win 61 games the following season!
And from a basic stats perspective**, adding Kevin Durant to a stacked team would not net an additional 12 wins.

In this dataset, 49% of all NBA teams regress towards 41.

"How many games will the Miami Heat win this season"
Ok. Here's some projections:

Year to year correlation (from the formula used in Part I):

My initial projection (a blend):


Most rating systems obviously had the Heat lower after losing their best player of ever, Dwyane Wade, for pride reasons. His BPM rating put his wins above replacement at +4.32 last season.

Miami also will probably have zero playing time from Bosh for (mostly?) health reasons, who was +4.86 Wins Above Replacement:

Oh yeah also Luol Deng is a Laker now. Last season he had +6.21 Wins Above Replacement for Miami.
FiveThirtyEight's Projection after 1 Win:

So....35 is still looking pretty good. Unless you're a Heat fan.

*- I was hoping for something catchier GSBLEWA31LEAD but I couldn't find a good way to make it fit.

*- Also from an advanced stats perspective (NetRating). The Warriors' Net Rating last season was lower than we would expect from the 73-win GSW team last yr (or you could say, their Win% was higher than their NetRtg expects). This is another important factor that we expect to regress, which I kind of mentioned at the beginning.

2016 NCAA Tournament Bracket Cheat Sheet (UPDATED 3/17)

2016 NCAA Tournament Bracket Cheat Sheet (UPDATED GOOGLE DOC 3/17)

Each team is ranked by their expected # of wins.

-Odds come from 10,000 simulations of the tournament, taking into account injuries, Four Factors adjustments, pace, and if the teams have a very close rating - free throw%.  I have updated the sheet to include an adjustment for shortened lineups (i.e. best players playing).

-Sleeper Rating is a rating from 1 to 5 that measures total volatility above Expected Wins, with successive rounds being weighted twice as much (i.e. using ESPN scoring). It's a good measure for teams with statistical ability to go further than my Exp. Wins suggests.

LARGE POOL PICK VALUE = (a team's odds  -  the public's expected odds )x total point value
This highlights high-value picks versus the field (namely, ESPN's bracket challenge)

VALUE + EXPECTED POINTS = Total Point Value + Large Pool Pick Value
This is a slightly more conservative version of "Large Pool Pick Value"

All statistics from except injury estimates from
Enjoy responsibly!

Updated NCAA Tournament Odds (2.0)

Made a slight change to my team ratings, giving slightly more weight (33% to be precise-ish) to a team's point differential. The remaining (67%) goes to efficiency differential, same as the last post.

Download the Spreadsheet Here

This version simply lists probabilities of getting to each round and expected ESPN scoring.

THE LEHIGH METHOD RETURNS: 2015 Bracket Cheat Sheet

I'm still stuck in the technological dark ages when it comes to sharing content. But I promise my analysis is as _____ as ever!

My simulations take into account rosters (rarely-used players getting less minutes), and luck-adjustment (aka The LeHigh Method which adjusts a team's four factors stats for which ones tend to be "luckier" than others).

Here's the excel sheet with my simulation results.

"PickMe" rating is a combination of three things:
-Which teams are projected to do better than typical seed expectation
-Which teams are highly volatile (can do significantly better than expected)
-The above two, weighted by typical round-by-round scoring (1st: 1, 2nd: 2, 3rd: 4, 4th: 8, 5th: 16, 6th: 32)

All data from and Thanks to @DSMok1 for helping me grab the data.

Who does RPM say will contribute the most to their teams each year.

Going to keep my mouth shut for the time being on my methodology on all this, but here's what my RPM projections combined with minutes projections think of players in 2015. Enjoy/berate me/etc.

PlayerPosExp. TmWins created (on Avg Tm)
LeBron JamesPFCLE19.7
Kevin DurantSFOKC18.1
Chris PaulPGLAC15.3
Stephen CurryPGGSW15.2
Kevin LovePFMIN14.0
Blake GriffinPFLAC13.8
Joakim NoahCCHI12.4
DeAndre JordanCLAC11.8
Russell WestbrookPGOKC11.8
Serge IbakaPFOKC11.7
Dwight HowardCHOU11.5
James HardenSGHOU11.4
Kyle LowryPGTOR11.4
LaMarcus AldridgePFPOR11.4
Dirk NowitzkiPFDAL11.2
Mike ConleyPGMEM11.1
Ricky RubioPGMIN10.9
Anthony DavisCNOP10.5
John WallPGWAS10.4
Andre IguodalaSFGSW10.4
Paul GeorgeSFIND10.1
Damian LillardPGPOR9.7
Goran DragicSGPHO9.6
Carmelo AnthonyPFNYK9.6
Marcin GortatCWAS9.4
Amir JohnsonPFTOR9.3
Andre DrummondCDET9.3
Marc GasolCMEM9.0
Tim DuncanCSAS8.9
Ty LawsonPGDEN8.6
Chris BoshCMIA8.6
DeMarcus CousinsCSAC8.5
Taj GibsonPFCHI8.3
Greg MonroePFDET8.2
Robin LopezCPOR8.1
Deron WilliamsPGBRK8.1
Al JeffersonCCHA8.1
Paul MillsapPFATL8.0
Isaiah ThomasPGPHO7.9
Kawhi LeonardSFSAS7.9
Channing FryePFORL7.8
Jrue HolidayPGNOP7.7
David WestPFIND7.6
Kemba WalkerPGCHA7.3
Eric BledsoePGPHO7.1
Chandler ParsonsSFDAL7.1
Monta EllisPGDAL7.0
Patrick BeverleyPGHOU7.0
Thaddeus YoungPFPHI7.0
Draymond GreenSFGSW6.9
Tyson ChandlerCDAL6.9
Luol DengSFMIA6.8
Brook LopezCBRK6.8
DeMarre CarrollSFATL6.8
Klay ThompsonSGGSW6.8
Anderson VarejaoCCLE6.7
Jimmy ButlerSGCHI6.7
Al HorfordCATL6.7
Danny GreenSGSAS6.7
Nikola PekovicCMIN6.6
George HillPGIND6.5
Zach RandolphPFMEM6.5
Dwyane WadeSGMIA6.5
Gordon HaywardSFUTA6.5
Nicolas BatumSFPOR6.4
Rudy GaySFSAC6.4
Lance StephensonSGIND6.3
Patty MillsPGSAS6.3
Tony ParkerPGSAS6.3
Roy HibbertCIND6.2
David LeePFGSW6.2
Nikola VucevicCORL6.2
Omer AsikCNOP6.1
Josh SmithSFDET6.1
Kyle KorverSGATL6.0
Tiago SplitterCSAS6.0
Vince CarterSGMEM5.9
Joe JohnsonSGBRK5.9
Paul PierceSFWAS5.9
Mike DunleavySFCHI5.9
Andrew BogutCGSW5.9
Kenneth FariedPFDEN5.8
Reggie JacksonPGOKC5.8
Manu GinobiliSGSAS5.7
Jared SullingerPFBOS5.7
DeMar DeRozanSGTOR5.6
Trevor ArizaSFHOU5.4
Nick CollisonPFOKC5.4
Derrick FavorsPFUTA5.3
Chris AndersenCMIA5.3
Mario ChalmersPGMIA5.2
Al-Farouq AminuSFNOP5.1
Michael Kidd-GilchristSFCHA5.1
Kosta KoufosCMEM4.9
Corey BrewerSFMIN4.9
Kyrie IrvingPGCLE4.9
Nene HilarioPFWAS4.8
Larry SandersCMIL4.8
Jason ThompsonPFSAC4.7
Josh McRobertsPFMIA4.7
Kevin GarnettCBRK4.7
Markieff MorrisPFPHO4.7
Greivis VasquezPGTOR4.7
J.R. SmithSFNYK4.6
Pau GasolCCHI4.6
Tony AllenSGMEM4.6
Brandan WrightCDAL4.5
Patrick PattersonPFTOR4.5
Victor OladipoPGORL4.5
Wesley MatthewsSGPOR4.4
Jeremy LinPGLAL4.3
Kyle O'QuinnCORL4.3
Jeff TeaguePGATL4.2
Raymond FeltonPGDAL4.2
Ryan AndersonPFNOP4.2
Alec BurksSGUTA4.2
Iman ShumpertSGNYK4.1
Terrence JonesPFHOU4.1
Boris DiawPFSAS4.1
Matt BarnesSFLAC4.0
Bradley BealSGWAS4.0
Jameer NelsonPG?3.9
Timofey MozgovCDEN3.8
Jae CrowderSFDAL3.7
Ryan KellyPFLAL3.7
Kobe BryantSGLAL3.6
Matthew DellavedovaSGCLE3.6
Rajon RondoPGBOS3.6
Dion WaitersSGCLE3.6
Andray BlatchePFBRK3.6
Andre MillerSGWAS3.5
P.J. TuckerSFPHO3.4
Jodie MeeksSGDET3.3
Spencer HawesCLAC3.3
Aaron GordonPFORL3.2
Giannis AntetokounmpoSFMIL3.2
Tyler ZellerCBOS3.2
J.J. RedickSGLAC3.2
Shaun LivingstonPGGSW3.1
Derrick RosePGCHI3.1
Andrei KirilenkoPFBRK3.1
Devin HarrisPGDAL3.1
C.J. MilesSGIND3.0
Jeff WitheyCNOP3.0
Thabo SefoloshaSGATL3.0
Samuel DalembertCNYK3.0
Nate WoltersPGMIL2.9
Pablo PrigioniPGNYK2.9
Marcus SmartPGBOS2.9
Tristan ThompsonPFCLE2.9
Marcus MorrisSFPHO2.9
Jabari ParkerSFMIL2.8
Trey BurkePGUTA2.8
Gerald WallaceSFBOS2.8
Ersan IlyasovaPFMIL2.8
Marvin WilliamsPFCHA2.7
Darren CollisonPGSAC2.7
Anthony TolliverPFCHA2.7
Jonas ValanciunasCTOR2.6
Courtney LeeSGMEM2.6
Wilson ChandlerSFDEN2.6
Nate RobinsonPGDEN2.6
Tobias HarrisPFORL2.6
Shelvin MackPGATL2.6
Avery BradleyPGBOS2.5
Kelly OlynykCBOS2.5
Jamal CrawfordSGLAC2.5
Zaza PachuliaCMIL2.5
Nick CalathesSGMEM2.4
Kevin MartinSGMIN2.4
Miles PlumleeCPHO2.4
Tyreke EvansSFNOP2.4
Chris KamanCPOR2.3
Michael Carter-WilliamsPGPHI2.3
Dante CunninghamSFMIN2.3
DeJuan BlairPFwas2.3
Shawn MarionSFDAL2.2
Kirk HinrichPGCHI2.2
Kyle SinglerSFDET2.2
Kendall MarshallPGLAL2.2
Mason PlumleePFBRK2.2
Kris HumphriesPFBOS2.2
Jose CalderonSGNYK2.2
Evan FournierSGORL2.2
Andrew WigginsSGCLE2.1
Lavoy AllenPFIND2.1
Jeremy LambSGOKC2.1
Steve NovakPFUTA2.1
Ramon SessionsPGMIL2.1
Gerald GreenSGPHO2.1
Elton BrandPFATL2.1
Kentavious Caldwell-PopeSGDET2.1
Randy FoyeSGDEN2.0
Julius RandlePFLAL2.0
James JohnsonSFMEM2.0
Matt BonnerPFSAS2.0
Martell WebsterSFWAS2.0
Glen DavisPFLAC2.0
Landry FieldsSFTOR1.9
Brandon BassPFBOS1.9
Pero AnticPFATL1.9
Jeff AdrienPFMIL1.9
Jeff AyresPFSAS1.9
Josh HarrellsonCDET1.9
Nick YoungSGLAL1.9
Terrence RossSGTOR1.9
Cody ZellerCCHA1.8
Ekpe UdohPFMIL1.8
Ed DavisPFMEM1.8
Henry SimsCPHI1.8
Chuck HayesCTOR1.8
Ray AllenSGMIA1.8
Jordan HillPFLAL1.8
Brandon KnightPGMIL1.8
Khris MiddletonSFMIL1.8
Darrell ArthurSFDEN1.7
Jared DudleySFLAC1.7
Danny GrangerSFMIA1.7
Gustavo AyonCATL1.7
Ian MahinmiCIND1.7
Rodney StuckeySGDET1.6
Dante ExumSGUTA1.6
Alexis AjincaCNOP1.6
C.J. WatsonPGIND1.6
Bismack BiyomboCCHA1.6
Jeremy EvansSFUTA1.6
Darius MillerSFNOP1.5
Alexey ShvedSGMIN1.5
Robbie HummelSF?1.5
Jason SmithPFNOP1.5
Ryan HollinsPFLAC1.5
Donatas MotiejunasPFHOU1.5
James AndersonSG?1.4
A.J. PriceSGMIN1.4
Steve NashPGLAL1.4
Greg SmithCDAL1.4
Brandon DaviesPFPHI1.4
Chris Douglas-RobertsSFCHA1.3
Andrew BynumCIND1.3
Gerald HendersonSGCHA1.3
Louis WilliamsPGTOR1.3
Beno UdrihSGMEM1.3
Jeff GreenSFBOS1.2
Rudy GobertCUTA1.2
Eric GordonSGNOP1.2
Kenyon MartinPFNYK1.1
Tayshaun PrinceSFMEM1.1
Jon LeuerPFMEM1.1
Luke BabbittPFNOP1.1
Cole AldrichCNYK1.1
Marco BelinelliSFSAS1.1
Greg StiemsmaCNOP1.1
Austin RiversSGNOP1.1
Jason MaxiellPF?1.1
Mike MillerSFCLE1.1
Gorgui DiengCMIN1.1
Wayne EllingtonSGNYK1.1
Quincy PondexterSGMEM1.1
Phil PresseyPGBOS1.1
Luc Richard Mbah a MoutePFMIN1.0
Elfrid PaytonPGORL1.0
Noah VonlehPGCHA1.0
Toure' MurryPGNYK1.0
Robert SacreCLAL1.0
Steve BlakePGPOR1.0
Aron BaynesCSAS1.0
Andre RobersonPFOKC1.0
Anthony MorrowSGOKC1.0
Omri CasspiPF?1.0
Xavier HenrySFLAL1.0
Quincy AcySFSAC1.0
Evan TurnerSFIND1.0
Chris JohnsonSFBOS1.0
Reggie EvansPFSAC1.0
Mirza TeletovicSFBRK1.0
Trevor BookerPFWAS0.9
Jordan CrawfordSGGSW0.9
Ronny TuriafPFMIN0.9
Derrick WilliamsSFSAC0.9
Brandon JenningsPGDET0.9
Ish SmithPGPHO0.9
Steven AdamsCOKC0.9
Tyler HansbroughPFTOR0.9
Jonas JerebkoPFDET0.9
Shavlik RandolphPFPHO0.9
Chase BudingerSFMIN0.9
Chris CopelandSFIND0.9
C.J. McCollumSGPOR0.9
Jermaine O'NealPFGSW0.8
Dorell WrightSFPOR0.8
Arron AfflaloSGDEN0.8
Toney DouglasPGMIA0.8
Perry JonesPFOKC0.8
Ray McCallumPGSAC0.8
Hasheem ThabeetCOKC0.8
Quincy MillerSFDEN0.8
Cory JosephSGSAS0.7
Troy DanielsSGHOU0.7
Joel AnthonyCBOS0.7
Jerryd BaylessPGBOS0.7
Garrett TempleSGWAS0.7
Luis ScolaPFIND0.7
Jarvis VarnadoPFPHI0.7
Jordan FarmarPGLAC0.7
Joel FreelandCPOR0.7
Luigi DatomeSFDET0.7
Nik StauskasSGSAC0.7
Harrison BarnesSFGSW0.7
Dario ŠarićPFPHI0.6
Thomas RobinsonPFPOR0.6
John HensonPFMIL0.6
Mo WilliamsPGPOR0.6
Kevin SeraphinCWAS0.6
Allen CrabbeSGPOR0.6
Solomon HillSFIND0.6
D.J. AugustinPGDET0.6
Robert CovingtonSFHOU0.6
Al HarringtonPFWAS0.5
Jordan HamiltonSFHOU0.5
Marcus ThorntonSGBOS0.5
John SalmonsSGNOP0.5
Carl LandryPFSAC0.5
Malcolm ThomasPFUTA0.5
Hedo TurkogluSFLAC0.5
Ian ClarkSGUTA0.5
Jan VeselyPFDEN0.4
Shane LarkinPGNYK0.4
Jarrett JackPGBRK0.4
Enes KanterCUTA0.4
Rashard LewisSFMIA0.4
Dewayne DedmonCORL0.4
Miroslav RaduljicaCMIL0.4
O.J. MayoSGMIL0.4
Victor ClaverSFPOR0.4
Leandro BarbosaPGPHO0.4
Tornike ShengeliaSFCHI0.4
Casper WarePGPHI0.4
T.J. WarrenSFPHO0.4
Francisco GarciaSFHOU0.4
James JonesSFMIA0.4
Dwight BuycksPGTOR0.4
Glen Rice Jr.SGWAS0.4
Ricky LedoSGDAL0.3
Austin DayeSFSAS0.3
Nando De ColoSFTOR0.3
Charlie VillanuevaPFDET0.3
Damion JamesSFSAS0.3
Justin HamiltonCMIA0.3
Carrick FelixSGCLE0.3
Drew GoodenCWAS0.3
Jamaal FranklinSGMEM0.3
Royce WhitePFSAC0.3
J.J. HicksonPFDEN0.2
Tony MitchellSFMIL0.2
Tony MitchellPFDET0.2
Carlos BoozerPFCHI0.2
Seth CurryPGCLE0.2
D.J. StephensSGMIL0.2
Aaron BrooksPGDEN0.2
J.J. BareaPGMIN0.2
Richard JeffersonSFDAL0.2
Zach LaVinePGMIN0.2
Earl WatsonPGPOR0.2
Doug McDermottSFCHI0.2
Scotty HopsonSG?0.2
Andris BiedrinsCUTA0.1
Cartier MartinSFDET0.1
Jason CollinsCBRK0.1
Alan AndersonSFBRK0.1
James NunnallySFPHI0.1
Alex LenCPHO0.1
James YoungSGBOS0.1
Adreian PaynePFATL0.1
Udonis HaslemPFMIA0.1
Ronnie PriceSG?0.1
Dionte ChristmasSFPHO0.1
Clint CapelaPFHOU0.1
Chris BabbSGBOS0.1
Julyan StoneSGTOR0.1
Josh PowellFHOU0.1
P.J. HairstonSFCHA0.1
Mustafa ShakurPGOKC0.1
Nazr MohammedCCHI0.0
Bernard JamesCDAL0.0
Chauncey BillupsSG?0.0
Jusuf NurkićCDEN0.0
Tyler EnnisPGPHO0.0
Brian RobertsPGCHA0.0
Gary HarrisSGDEN0.0
Bruno CabocloSFTOR0.0
Mitch McGaryPFOKC0.0
Jordan AdamsSGMEM0.0
Travis OutlawSFSAC0.0
Rodney HoodSGUTA0.0
Shabazz NapierPGMIA0.0
Bogdan BogdanovićSGBRK0.0
C.J. WilcoxSGLAC0.0
Josh HuestisSFOKC0.0
Kyle AndersonPFSAS0.0
Damien InglisSFMIL0.0
K.J. McDanielsSFPHI0.0
Joe HarrisSGCLE0.0
Cleanthony EarlySFNYK0.0
Jarnell StokesPFMEM0.0
Johnny O'Bryant IIIPFMIL0.0
DeAndre DanielsSFTOR0.0
Spencer DinwiddiePGDET0.0
Jerami GrantSFPHI0.0
Nikola JokićCDEN0.0
Nick JohnsonSGHOU0.0
Walter TavaresCATL0.0
Mike ScottPFATL0.0
Markel BrownSGBRK0.0
Dwight PowellPFCLE0.0
Jordan ClarksonPGLAL0.0
Russ SmithPGNOP0.0
Cameron BairstowCCHI0.0
Alec BrownCPHO0.0
Thanasis AntetokounmpoSFNYK0.0
Lamar PattersonSGATL0.0
Vasilije MicićPGPHI0.0
Joel EmbiidCPHI0.0
Nemanja DangubićSGSAS0.0
Semaj ChristonPGCHA0.0
Roy Devyn MarbleSFORL0.0
Louis LabeyriePFNYK0.0
Jordan McRaeSGPHI0.0
Glenn Robinson IIISFMIN0.0
Alessandro GentileSFMIN0.0
Cory JeffersonPFBRK0.0
Xavier ThamesPGBRK0.0
Vitor FaveraniCBOS0.0
Reggie BullockSFLAC0.0
Melvin ElyC?0.0
Brandon RushSGUTA0.0
Amar'e StoudemireCNYK0.0
Keith BogansSGBOS0.0
Willie GreenSGORL-0.1
Chris SingletonSFWAS-0.1
Jeremy TylerCNYK-0.1
Jannero PargoPGCHA-0.1
Jorge GutierrezPGBRK-0.1
Rasual ButlerSGIND-0.1
JaVale McGeeCDEN-0.1
Ognjen KuzmicCGSW-0.1
Anthony RandolphPFORL-0.1
Andrea BargnaniCNYK-0.1
Andrew NicholsonPFORL-0.2
Aaron GrayCDET-0.2
Hollis ThompsonSFPHI-0.2
Greg OdenCMIA-0.2
D.J. WhitePFCHA-0.2
Otto Porter Jr.SFWAS-0.2
Norris ColePGMIA-0.2
Jimmer FredetteSGCHI-0.2
MarShon BrooksSGLAL-0.3
Erik MurphyCCHI-0.3
Will BynumPGDET-0.3
Peyton SivaSGDET-0.3
Gal MekelPGDAL-0.3
Mike MuscalaCATL-0.3
Meyers LeonardCPOR-0.3
Isaiah CanaanPGHOU-0.4
Marreese SpeightsCGSW-0.4
Arnett MoultriePFPHI-0.4
Michael BeasleySFMIA-0.4
Luke RidnourPGCHA-0.4
Will BartonSGPOR-0.4
Maurice HarklessSFORL-0.4
E'Twaun MooreSGORL-0.4
Wesley JohnsonSFLAL-0.5
Nemanja NedovicSGGSW-0.5
Shabazz MuhammadSGMIN-0.5
Kent BazemoreSGATL-0.5
Doron LambSG?-0.5
Diante GarrettPGTOR-0.5
Kendrick PerkinsCOKC-0.6
Caron ButlerSFDET-0.6
Gary NealSGCHA-0.6
Archie GoodwinSGPHO-0.6
Sergey KarasevSFBRK-0.7
Jeff TaylorSFCHA-0.7
John JenkinsSGATL-0.8
Alonzo GeeSF?-0.8
Anthony BennettSFCLE-0.8
Donald SloanSGIND-1.0
Tony WrotenSGPHI-1.1
Shannon BrownSGNYK-1.2
Marquis TeagueSGBRK-1.3
Tony SnellSGCHI-1.4
Byron MullensCPHI-1.5
Dennis SchroderPGATL-1.9
Tim Hardaway Jr.SGNYK-2.1
Ben McLemoreSGSAC-2.3
Elliot WilliamsSGPHI-2.4


About Me

I wish my heart were as often large as my hands.