For all your fancy-pants statistical needs.

Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN

Cheapo All-stars

Here are the players with the most Wins Above Replacement (expanded to 82 games) for under $1 million. This is based on my new Adjusted Rating which is a combination of stats and +/-.



PlayerTeamPS%minsraw SPR(2.0) per 100on-offadjRatingWARP82Salary
1thomas,isaiahsacPG63%5.812.04.213.0$884,293.00
2parsons,chandlerhouSF70%2.21.11.39.2$926,500.00
3blair,dejuandalC44%3.41.21.66.2$884,293.00
4casspi,omrihouSF42%0.711.11.35.5$947,907.00
5middleton,khrismilSF56%-0.712.2-0.74.4$788,872.00
6tucker,p.j.phoSG65%-1.0-3.8-1.04.4$884,293.00
7henry,xavierlalSG42%-0.514.10.24.2$884,293.00
8beverley,patrickhouPG59%-1.84.9-0.94.0$788,872.00
9johnson,wesleylalSG54%-0.4-6.3-0.84.0$884,293.00
10farmar,jordanlalPG28%3.715.41.33.7$884,293.00
11green,draymondgswSF42%-1.26.3-0.43.6$875,500.00
12brooks,aaronhouPG26%1.9-6.50.32.7$884,293.00
13livingston,shaunbroPG46%-0.61.3-1.52.5$884,293.00
14williams,shawnelalSF37%-3.214.4-1.02.5$884,293.00
15crowder,jaedalSF37%-1.511.7-1.12.4$788,872.00
16mack,shelvinatlPG28%1.610.7-0.62.2$884,293.00
17fisher,derekoklPG27%-4.30.9-0.42.2$884,293.00
18leuer,jonmemPF27%1.70.8-0.62.1$900,000.00
19martin,kenyonnykPF31%0.410.9-1.12.0$884,293.00
20hummel,robbieminSF19%-3.50.0-0.81.4$490,180.00

Leaders in Points-Created

Hey All!

Using Dean Oliver's formula for estimated "assisted-shot%" (recounted here) and some other basic stats, I've come up with some handy quick-n-dirty numbers early in the 2014 (GAMES AS OF 11/18/2013)

"Points Created"
This number combines: Points from field-goals (not-assisted on), Points from free throws, and assists multiplied by the average points per team field goal made (typically around 2.1).

"Possessions Used"
This number combines: Field goal attempts minus assisted field-goal-makes, 44% of Free Throw Attempts, assists, and turnovers

From these I got Per-100-possession stats, including "Points Created Per 100 above positional average" to help normalize for position (especially useful for finding who the best passers & scorers are for their position). Also I'll be showing Points Created / Points Used (Points Per Possession).

Here you go!


Top-10 Most Possessions Used Per 100:



















Top-10 Points Created / Points Used (Points Per Possession):



















Top-10 Points Created Per 100:

















Top-10 Points Created Per 100 (Above Positional Average):



NBA Projections v1.0 - "The Three Facets"

Happy NBA day everyone!

There are three different projections I have here.

-First is "playoff adjusted efficiency differential" - which estimates how a lineup minutes will alter during the playoffs and adjusts accordingly.
-Second is "regular season eff. differential" - which includes the raw lineup of players and minutes projections
-Third is projected wins, which takes the 2nd and applies it to this season's schedule.








Notes:
-Yes, I did adjust Cleveland so Varejao gets more minutes and Clark gets less.
-Enjoy responsibly!

The Basketball Distribution Season Projections v0.2, (Earl Clark Edition)

Changes
-Slight somewhat arbitrary adjustment for Usage (i.e. Brooklyn's 112% usage ain't gonna work).
-Beasley's minutes cut from 30% to 10%
-Fixed some errant players that aren't projected to be in the league

The main issue I see here is that my minutes projection has Earl Clark fronting a TON of minutes for Cleveland, and that Varejao is (understandably) projected to sustain some injuries. I'll hopefully adjust this some. I also think my xRAPM projection for Earl Clark is unfairly low.

Added "Starters Wins Added" and "Bench Wins Added" which is the combined contribution of "wins above 41" by the starters (top-5 minutes) and bench (the rest).





The Basketball Distribution Season Projections v0.1, (The "Laugh it up, fuzzball" Edition)

I'll go ahead and admit right off the bat that this does not pass the laugh test.
For obvious reasons (Miami), my projections will make you chuckle a little.

While my player values are likely very accurate (projections for xRAPM), my minutes projections are not. I have a feeling that Ray Allen and Michael Beasley and Norris Cole will all get less playing time this season than my source for minutes suggests.
EDIT: IMPORTANT OTHER NOTICE: This doesn't take into account offenses who won't be able to use as many possessions as their new players inherently use (i.e. Brooklyn).


Without further ado, here they be:



Eff differential = Expected win differential based on projected xRAPM and projected minutes for all players.
pWins = Pythagorean wins, or, the # of wins expected were all teams to play an even schedule
>Avg Players = Total projected contribution of all above-zero xRAPM players
Total projected contribution of all below-zero xRAPM players
Bench win differential = how much the below average players on a team impact expected win total, versus the league average.









Miami's below-average players are...ahem...not awesome.

Projected xRAPM for 2014



MATH: I created a model based on aging curve, regression to the mean, and regression towards prior performance (up to 3 seasons in the past). A player with three seasons' worth of data will be slightly more accurate than one with two, etcetera. Those are the only factors this takes into account. The R^2 of the regression model for the ~2000 data points I used was around 0.75.

Enjoy!



Projected xRAPM (model)range (-1.5 to +1.5 SDs)
LeBron James9.57.5 / 11.5
Chris Paul7.75.7 / 9.8
Kevin Durant7.75.6 / 9.7
Tim Duncan6.34.2 / 8.3
Dwight Howard5.93.9 / 8.0
Kevin Love5.33.3 / 7.3
Marc Gasol5.03.0 / 7.0
James Harden4.92.8 / 6.9
Russell Westbrook4.92.8 / 6.9
Paul Millsap4.72.7 / 6.7
Blake Griffin4.72.6 / 6.7
Tyson Chandler4.42.4 / 6.5
Mike Conley4.42.4 / 6.4
Chris Andersen4.42.3 / 6.4
Amir Johnson4.32.2 / 6.3
Dwyane Wade4.12.1 / 6.2
Stephen Curry3.91.9 / 6.0
Joakim Noah3.91.9 / 5.9
Roy Hibbert3.71.7 / 5.7
Dirk Nowitzki3.71.6 / 5.7
Omer Asik3.71.6 / 5.7
Danilo Gallinari3.51.5 / 5.6
Kevin Garnett3.51.5 / 5.6
Andre Iguodala3.51.5 / 5.6
Manu Ginobili3.51.5 / 5.5
Andrew B3.41.4 / 5.4
Josh Smith3.41.3 / 5.4
Kyle Lowry3.31.3 / 5.4
Nene Hilario3.31.3 / 5.4
Rajon Rondo3.31.2 / 5.3
LaMarcus Aldridge3.21.2 / 5.3
Ricky Rubio3.11.1 / 5.1
DeAndre Jordan3.11.0 / 5.1
Paul George3.01.0 / 5.1
Anderson Varejao3.01.0 / 5.0
Greg Monroe3.01.0 / 5.0
Brook Lopez3.01.0 / 5.0
John Wall2.90.9 / 4.9
Paul Pierce2.90.9 / 4.9
Serge Ibaka2.80.8 / 4.8
Thaddeus Young2.70.7 / 4.7
Andre Drummond2.70.7 / 4.7
Derrick Favors2.60.6 / 4.6
Tiago Splitter2.40.3 / 4.4
Kobe Bryant2.30.3 / 4.3
DeMarcus Cousins2.30.3 / 4.3
Pau Gasol2.30.3 / 4.3
David West2.20.2 / 4.3
Larry Sanders2.20.1 / 4.2
Tony Parker2.10.1 / 4.2
Ersan Ilyasova2.10.1 / 4.1
Vince Carter2.10.1 / 4.1
Andrew Bogut2.00.0 / 4.0
Andrei Kirilenko2.00.0 / 4.0
Deron Williams2.00.0 / 4.0
Taj Gibson2.0-0.1 / 4.0
Kawhi Leonard1.8-0.2 / 3.8
Al-Farouq Aminu1.8-0.3 / 3.8
Chris Bosh1.7-0.3 / 3.8
Carmelo Anthony1.7-0.3 / 3.7
Kyrie Irving1.7-0.3 / 3.7
Anthony Davis1.7-0.3 / 3.7
Gerald Wallace1.7-0.4 / 3.7
George Hill1.7-0.4 / 3.7
Kenneth Faried1.6-0.4 / 3.7
Jrue Holiday1.6-0.4 / 3.7
Al Horford1.6-0.4 / 3.6
Kosta Koufos1.6-0.4 / 3.6
Luol Deng1.5-0.6 / 3.5
JaVale McGee1.5-0.6 / 3.5
Gordon Hayward1.5-0.6 / 3.5
Robin Lopez1.5-0.6 / 3.5
Brandan Wright1.4-0.6 / 3.4
Eric Bledsoe1.4-0.6 / 3.4
Greg 1.4-0.6 / 3.4
Ryan Anderson1.4-0.7 / 3.4
Zach Randolph1.2-0.8 / 3.2
Devin Harris1.1-0.9 / 3.1
Nick Collison1.0-1.0 / 3.1
Goran Dragic1.0-1.0 / 3.0
Emeka Okafor1.0-1.1 / 3.0
Danny Granger1.0-1.1 / 3.0
Bismack Biyombo0.9-1.1 / 2.9
Jimmy Butler0.9-1.1 / 2.9
Tristan Thompson0.9-1.1 / 2.9
Ekpe Udoh0.9-1.1 / 2.9
Damian Lillard0.9-1.2 / 2.9
Eric Gordon0.8-1.2 / 2.8
Ty Lawson0.8-1.2 / 2.8
Jason Kidd0.7-1.3 / 2.8
Nicolas Batum0.7-1.3 / 2.7
Steve Nash0.7-1.3 / 2.7
David Lee0.7-1.3 / 2.7
Al Jefferson0.7-1.3 / 2.7
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist0.6-1.4 / 2.7
Anthony Randolph0.6-1.4 / 2.6
Tony Allen0.6-1.4 / 2.6
Metta World Peace0.6-1.4 / 2.6
Nikola Pekovic0.6-1.4 / 2.6
Marcin Gortat0.6-1.5 / 2.6
Jeremy Lin0.6-1.5 / 2.6
J.R. Smith0.5-1.5 / 2.6
Chuck Hayes0.5-1.5 / 2.6
Jason Thompson0.5-1.5 / 2.6
Lamar Odom0.5-1.5 / 2.5
Jared Dudley0.5-1.5 / 2.5
Elton Brand0.5-1.5 / 2.5
Joe Johnson0.5-1.6 / 2.5
Spencer Hawes0.5-1.6 / 2.5
Raymond Felton0.5-1.6 / 2.5
Quincy Acy0.4-1.6 / 2.5
Wilson Chandler0.4-1.6 / 2.5
Patrick Beverley0.4-1.6 / 2.4
Tobias Harris0.4-1.6 / 2.4
Kemba Walker0.4-1.6 / 2.4
Andray Blatche0.4-1.6 / 2.4
Monta Ellis0.4-1.7 / 2.4
Rudy Gay0.4-1.7 / 2.4
Danny Green0.4-1.7 / 2.4
Tyreke Evans0.3-1.7 / 2.3
Isaiah Thomas0.2-1.8 / 2.3
Landry Fields0.2-1.8 / 2.2
Enes Kanter0.2-1.9 / 2.2
Gustavo Ayon0.2-1.9 / 2.2
Reggie Evans0.1-1.9 / 2.2
DeMarre Carroll0.1-1.9 / 2.1
Dorell Wright0.1-1.9 / 2.1
Jeff Teague0.1-1.9 / 2.1
Matt Barnes0.1-1.9 / 2.1
Kevin Martin0.1-1.9 / 2.1
Ed Davis0.0-2.0 / 2.1
Chase Budinger0.0-2.0 / 2.0
Thabo Sefolosha0.0-2.0 / 2.0
Mario Chalmers0.0-2.0 / 2.0
Samuel Dalembert0.0-2.0 / 2.0
Mike Dunleavy0.0-2.1 / 2.0
Marcus Camby-0.1-2.1 / 2.0
Kyle Korver-0.1-2.1 / 2.0
James Anderson-0.1-2.1 / 2.0
Chandler Parsons-0.1-2.1 / 1.9
Louis Williams-0.1-2.1 / 1.9
Brandon Roy-0.1-2.1 / 1.9
Brendan Haywood-0.1-2.2 / 1.9
Josh Harrellson-0.1-2.2 / 1.9
Pablo Prigioni-0.1-2.2 / 1.9
Nikola Vucevic-0.2-2.2 / 1.9
Hamed Haddadi-0.2-2.2 / 1.8
Jameer Nelson-0.2-2.2 / 1.8
Lance Stephenson-0.2-2.2 / 1.8
Jared Sullinger-0.2-2.2 / 1.8
Wesley Matthews-0.2-2.2 / 1.8
John Henson-0.3-2.3 / 1.8
Andre Miller-0.3-2.3 / 1.7
Klay Thompson-0.3-2.3 / 1.7
Shane Battier-0.4-2.4 / 1.7
Harrison Barnes-0.4-2.4 / 1.7
Jonas Valanciunas-0.4-2.4 / 1.7
Luc Mbah a Moute-0.4-2.4 / 1.6
C.J. Miles-0.4-2.4 / 1.6
Zaza Pachulia-0.4-2.5 / 1.6
Jermaine O'Neal-0.5-2.5 / 1.6
DeJuan Blair-0.5-2.5 / 1.6
O.J. Mayo-0.5-2.5 / 1.5
Jose Calderon-0.5-2.5 / 1.5
Matt Bonner-0.5-2.5 / 1.5
Corey Brewer-0.5-2.6 / 1.5
Rodney Stuckey-0.5-2.6 / 1.5
Trevor Ariza-0.5-2.6 / 1.5
Greg Smith-0.6-2.6 / 1.5
Luis Scola-0.6-2.6 / 1.5
Chauncey Billups-0.6-2.6 / 1.4
Kris Humphries-0.6-2.6 / 1.4
Jeff Adrien-0.7-2.7 / 1.4
Rasheed Wallace-0.7-2.7 / 1.3
Kyle O'Quinn-0.7-2.7 / 1.3
DeMar DeRozan-0.7-2.7 / 1.3
Ramon Sessions-0.7-2.7 / 1.3
Josh McRoberts-0.7-2.7 / 1.3
Bradley Beal-0.7-2.7 / 1.3
Jason Smith-0.7-2.8 / 1.3
Omri Casspi-0.8-2.8 / 1.3
Carlos Delfino-0.8-2.8 / 1.3
Glen Davis-0.8-2.8 / 1.2
Ronnie Brewer-0.8-2.8 / 1.2
John Salmons-0.8-2.8 / 1.2
Amare Stoudemire-0.8-2.8 / 1.2
Gerald Henderson-0.8-2.8 / 1.2
Alec Burks-0.8-2.8 / 1.2
Derrick Williams-0.8-2.9 / 1.2
Greivis Vasquez-0.8-2.9 / 1.2
Jonas Jerebko-0.9-2.9 / 1.2
Hasheem Thabeet-0.9-2.9 / 1.1
Antawn Jamison-0.9-2.9 / 1.1
Patrick Patterson-0.9-2.9 / 1.1
Ronny Turiaf-0.9-2.9 / 1.1
Dion Waiters-0.9-2.9 / 1.1
Lavoy Allen-0.9-3.0 / 1.1
Jordan Hamilton-1.0-3.0 / 1.1
Brandon Knight-1.0-3.0 / 1.1
Greg Stiemsma-1.0-3.0 / 1.1
Vladimir Radmanovic-1.0-3.0 / 1.0
Kenyon Martin-1.0-3.0 / 1.0
Brandon Jennings-1.0-3.0 / 1.0
Boris Diaw-1.0-3.0 / 1.0
Tyler Hansbrough-1.0-3.1 / 1.0
Trevor Booker-1.0-3.1 / 1.0
Carlos Boozer-1.1-3.1 / 0.9
J.J. Hickson-1.1-3.1 / 0.9
Jeremy Evans-1.1-3.1 / 0.9
Jordan Hill-1.1-3.1 / 0.9
Julyan Stone-1.1-3.1 / 0.9
Martell Webster-1.1-3.2 / 0.9
Toney Douglas-1.1-3.2 / 0.9
Shaun Livingston-1.1-3.2 / 0.9
Marvin Williams-1.1-3.2 / 0.9
Avery Bradley-1.1-3.2 / 0.9
Malcolm Lee-1.2-3.2 / 0.9
Iman Shumpert-1.2-3.2 / 0.9
Austin Daye-1.2-3.2 / 0.9
Tayshaun Prince-1.2-3.2 / 0.9
Draymond Green-1.2-3.2 / 0.8
Jodie Meeks-1.2-3.2 / 0.8
Bernard James-1.2-3.2 / 0.8
Chris Kaman-1.2-3.2 / 0.8
Darren Collison-1.2-3.2 / 0.8
Malcolm Thomas-1.2-3.3 / 0.8
Samardo Samuels-1.2-3.3 / 0.8
Tornike Shengelia-1.3-3.3 / 0.8
Festus Ezeli-1.3-3.3 / 0.8
Jarrett Jack-1.3-3.3 / 0.8
Jamal Crawford-1.3-3.3 / 0.8
Dominique Jones-1.3-3.3 / 0.7
Ivan Johnson-1.3-3.3 / 0.7
Kirk Hinrich-1.3-3.3 / 0.7
Joel Anthony-1.3-3.3 / 0.7
Jason Maxiell-1.3-3.3 / 0.7
Nate Robinson-1.3-3.3 / 0.7
Jeff Green-1.4-3.4 / 0.7
Quincy Miller-1.4-3.4 / 0.7
Markieff Morris-1.4-3.4 / 0.6
Shawn Marion-1.4-3.4 / 0.6
Brandon Rush-1.4-3.4 / 0.6
Cole Aldrich-1.4-3.4 / 0.6
Kevin Jones-1.4-3.4 / 0.6
Kendrick Perkins-1.4-3.4 / 0.6
Jeremy Tyler-1.5-3.5 / 0.6
Hedo Turkoglu-1.5-3.5 / 0.6
Nazr Mohammed-1.5-3.5 / 0.6
Alonzo Gee-1.5-3.5 / 0.6
Jared Jeffries-1.5-3.5 / 0.5
Ian Mahinmi-1.5-3.5 / 0.5
Khris Middleton-1.5-3.5 / 0.5
Perry Jones-1.5-3.5 / 0.5
Al Harrington-1.5-3.5 / 0.5
Justin Holiday-1.5-3.5 / 0.5
Jerryd Bayless-1.5-3.5 / 0.5
Charlie Villanueva-1.5-3.5 / 0.5
Courtney Lee-1.5-3.5 / 0.5
A.J. Price-1.5-3.5 / 0.5
Jason Richardson-1.5-3.6 / 0.5
Chris Singleton-1.5-3.6 / 0.5
Kwame Brown-1.6-3.6 / 0.5
Tyler Honeycutt-1.6-3.6 / 0.5
Beno Udrih-1.6-3.6 / 0.5
Anthony Tolliver-1.6-3.6 / 0.5
Damion James-1.6-3.6 / 0.5
Andris Biedrins-1.6-3.6 / 0.5
Drew Gooden-1.6-3.6 / 0.4
Ray Allen-1.6-3.6 / 0.4
DaJuan Summers-1.6-3.6 / 0.4
Evan Turner-1.6-3.6 / 0.4
C.J. Watson-1.6-3.6 / 0.4
Dante Cunningham-1.6-3.6 / 0.4
Henry Sims-1.6-3.6 / 0.4
Jeff Pendergraph-1.6-3.6 / 0.4
Mike Miller-1.6-3.7 / 0.4
Daniel Orton-1.6-3.7 / 0.4
Josh Selby-1.6-3.7 / 0.4
Luke Ridnour-1.6-3.7 / 0.4
Jared Cunningham-1.7-3.7 / 0.4
Terrence Jones-1.7-3.7 / 0.4
J.J. Redick-1.7-3.7 / 0.3
Jason Terry-1.7-3.7 / 0.3
Devin Ebanks-1.7-3.7 / 0.3
Chris Wilcox-1.7-3.7 / 0.3
Louis Amundson-1.7-3.7 / 0.3
Darko Milicic-1.7-3.7 / 0.3
Alexey Shved-1.7-3.7 / 0.3
Carl Landry-1.7-3.7 / 0.3
P.J. Tucker-1.7-3.8 / 0.3
Fab Melo-1.8-3.8 / 0.3
Jae Crowder-1.8-3.8 / 0.3
Arnett Moultrie-1.8-3.8 / 0.3
Kyle Singler-1.8-3.8 / 0.2
Tyrus Thomas-1.8-3.8 / 0.2
Aron Baynes-1.8-3.8 / 0.2
Quincy Pondexter-1.8-3.8 / 0.2
Arron Afflalo-1.8-3.8 / 0.2
Kent Bazemore-1.8-3.9 / 0.2
Maurice Harkless-1.8-3.9 / 0.2
Francisco Garcia-1.9-3.9 / 0.2
Evan Fournier-1.9-3.9 / 0.2
Kris Joseph-1.9-3.9 / 0.1
Darius Johnson-Odom-1.9-3.9 / 0.1
Andrew Nicholson-1.9-3.9 / 0.1
Tyler Zeller-1.9-3.9 / 0.1
Shavlik Randolph-1.9-3.9 / 0.1
Tony Wroten-1.9-4.0 / 0.1
D.J. White-1.9-4.0 / 0.1
Reggie Jackson-1.9-4.0 / 0.1
Steve Novak-2.0-4.0 / 0.1
Cory Joseph-2.0-4.0 / 0.1
Rodrigue Beaubois-2.0-4.0 / 0.1
Viacheslav Kravtsov-2.0-4.0 / 0.0
Scott Machado-2.0-4.0 / 0.0
Meyers Leonard-2.0-4.0 / 0.0
Jeremy Lamb-2.0-4.0 / 0.0
Marreese Speights-2.0-4.1 / 0.0
Jan Vesely-2.0-4.1 / 0.0
Mike Scott-2.0-4.1 / 0.0
Jon Leuer-2.0-4.1 / 0.0
Chris Quinn-2.0-4.1 / 0.0
Andrea Bargnani-2.1-4.1 / 0.0
Robert Sacre-2.1-4.1 / -0.1
Marcus Thornton-2.1-4.1 / -0.1
Brandon Bass-2.1-4.1 / -0.1
Richard Jefferson-2.1-4.1 / -0.1
Dexter Pittman-2.1-4.1 / -0.1
DeSagana Diop-2.1-4.1 / -0.1
Sebastian Telfair-2.1-4.1 / -0.1
Tim Ohlbrecht-2.1-4.1 / -0.1
Miles Plumlee-2.1-4.1 / -0.1
Jarvis Varnado-2.1-4.1 / -0.1
Luke Babbitt-2.1-4.2 / -0.1
Shelvin Mack-2.2-4.2 / -0.1
Jamaal Tinsley-2.2-4.2 / -0.1
Maalik Wayns-2.2-4.2 / -0.1
Ryan Hollins-2.2-4.2 / -0.1
Chris Copeland-2.2-4.2 / -0.1
Lance Thomas-2.2-4.2 / -0.2
Justin Dentmon-2.2-4.2 / -0.2
Garrett Temple-2.2-4.2 / -0.2
Wayne Ellington-2.2-4.3 / -0.2
Corey Maggette-2.3-4.3 / -0.2
Udonis Haslem-2.3-4.3 / -0.3
James Jones-2.3-4.3 / -0.3
Josh Akognon-2.3-4.3 / -0.3
Thomas Robinson-2.3-4.3 / -0.3
Travis Outlaw-2.3-4.3 / -0.3
Jeff Taylor-2.3-4.4 / -0.3
Eric Maynor-2.3-4.4 / -0.3
Caron Butler-2.3-4.4 / -0.3
Terrence Williams-2.4-4.4 / -0.3
Patrick Mills-2.4-4.4 / -0.3
James Johnson-2.4-4.4 / -0.4
Kevin Murphy-2.4-4.4 / -0.4
Tyshawn Taylor-2.4-4.4 / -0.4
Reggie Williams-2.4-4.4 / -0.4
Diante Garrett-2.5-4.5 / -0.4
Derek Fisher-2.5-4.5 / -0.4
Chris Douglas-Roberts-2.5-4.5 / -0.4
Earl Watson-2.5-4.5 / -0.5
Cartier Martin-2.5-4.6 / -0.5
Earl Barron-2.6-4.6 / -0.5
DeAndre Liggins-2.6-4.6 / -0.6
John Lucas-2.6-4.6 / -0.6
Byron Mullens-2.6-4.6 / -0.6
Jose Barea-2.6-4.6 / -0.6
Stephen Jackson-2.6-4.6 / -0.6
Eddy Curry-2.6-4.6 / -0.6
D.J. Augustin-2.6-4.7 / -0.6
Marcus Morris-2.6-4.7 / -0.6
Aaron Gray-2.6-4.7 / -0.6
Dominic McGuire-2.6-4.7 / -0.6
Xavier Henry-2.6-4.7 / -0.6
Orlando Johnson-2.6-4.7 / -0.6
Jordan Crawford-2.6-4.7 / -0.6
Troy Murphy-2.7-4.7 / -0.6
Darius Miller-2.7-4.7 / -0.6
Damien Wilkins-2.7-4.7 / -0.6
Quentin Richardson-2.7-4.7 / -0.6
Solomon Jones-2.7-4.7 / -0.7
Luke Walton-2.7-4.7 / -0.7
Luke Zeller-2.7-4.7 / -0.7
Ben Hansbrough-2.7-4.7 / -0.7
Josh Childress-2.7-4.7 / -0.7
Marquis Daniels-2.7-4.8 / -0.7
Nick Young-2.7-4.8 / -0.7
Donatas Motiejunas-2.7-4.8 / -0.7
Roger Mason-2.7-4.8 / -0.7
Josh Howard-2.8-4.8 / -0.8
Terrel Harris-2.8-4.8 / -0.8
Rashard Lewis-2.8-4.8 / -0.8
Ishmael Smith-2.8-4.9 / -0.8
Lazar Hayward-2.8-4.9 / -0.8
Mo Williams-2.9-4.9 / -0.8
Kevin Seraphin-2.9-4.9 / -0.9
Timofey Mozgov-2.9-5.0 / -0.9
Joel Przybilla-2.9-5.0 / -0.9
Mickael Gelabale-3.0-5.0 / -0.9
Marco Belinelli-3.0-5.0 / -0.9
Hakim Warrick-3.0-5.0 / -0.9
Austin Rivers-3.0-5.0 / -0.9
Nolan Smith-3.0-5.0 / -1.0
Randy Foye-3.0-5.0 / -1.0
Steve Blake-3.0-5.0 / -1.0
Shannon Brown-3.0-5.0 / -1.0
Will Conroy-3.0-5.0 / -1.0
Mike James-3.0-5.0 / -1.0
Michael Beasley-3.0-5.1 / -1.0
Jimmer Fredette-3.0-5.1 / -1.0
Kurt Thomas-3.0-5.1 / -1.0
Terrence Ross-3.0-5.1 / -1.0
DeQuan Jones-3.1-5.1 / -1.0
Daniel Gibson-3.1-5.1 / -1.1
Mirza Teletovic-3.1-5.1 / -1.1
Cory Higgins-3.1-5.1 / -1.1
Marquis Teague-3.1-5.1 / -1.1
Leandro Barbosa-3.1-5.2 / -1.1
Keyon Dooling-3.2-5.2 / -1.1
Kendall Marshall-3.2-5.2 / -1.2
John Jenkins-3.2-5.2 / -1.2
Nando De Colo-3.2-5.2 / -1.2
Gary Neal-3.2-5.2 / -1.2
Gerald Green-3.2-5.2 / -1.2
Brian Roberts-3.3-5.3 / -1.2
Charles Jenkins-3.3-5.3 / -1.3
Victor Claver-3.3-5.4 / -1.3
Keith Bogans-3.3-5.4 / -1.3
Linas Kleiza-3.4-5.4 / -1.3
Darius Morris-3.4-5.4 / -1.4
E'Twaun Moore-3.4-5.4 / -1.4
Alan Anderson-3.4-5.4 / -1.4
Kim English-3.4-5.4 / -1.4
Daequan Cook-3.4-5.4 / -1.4
Joel Freeland-3.4-5.5 / -1.4
Wesley Johnson-3.5-5.5 / -1.4
Mickael Pietrus-3.5-5.5 / -1.5
Darrell Arthur-3.5-5.5 / -1.5
MarShon Brooks-3.5-5.5 / -1.5
Matt Carroll-3.5-5.5 / -1.5
Dahntay Jones-3.5-5.5 / -1.5
Will Bynum-3.5-5.5 / -1.5
Earl Clark-3.5-5.6 / -1.5
Aaron Brooks-3.6-5.6 / -1.5
Jason Collins-3.6-5.6 / -1.5
Chris Duhon-3.6-5.7 / -1.6
Anthony Morrow-3.6-5.7 / -1.6
Ronnie Price-3.6-5.7 / -1.6
Grant Hill-3.7-5.7 / -1.6
Johan Petro-3.7-5.7 / -1.7
Donald Sloan-3.8-5.8 / -1.7
Juwan Howard-3.8-5.8 / -1.8
Jerry Stackhouse-3.8-5.8 / -1.8
Andrew Goudelock-3.9-5.9 / -1.9
Will Barton-3.9-5.9 / -1.9
Sam Young-3.9-5.9 / -1.9
DeShawn Stevenson-4.0-6.0 / -2.0
Jannero Pargo-4.0-6.1 / -2.0
Willie Green-4.1-6.2 / -2.1
Sasha Pavlovic-4.2-6.2 / -2.2
Richard Hamilton-4.2-6.2 / -2.2
Doron Lamb-4.3-6.3 / -2.2
James White-4.3-6.3 / -2.3
Royal Ivey-4.5-6.5 / -2.5
Ben Gordon-4.8-6.8 / -2.8
Norris Cole-5.0-7.0 / -3.0
Jeremy Pargo-5.1-7.2 / -3.1

Fourteen Scorers Remain (Sort of)

Assuming that the final four teams in the NBA playoffs are Miami, Indiana, San Antonio, and Memphis, (a big assumption) there are only 14 players with at least 100 minutes played who are taking at least 20% of their team's true-shooting attempts.

Sorted by points per 48 in the playoffs (LeBron has probably been hurt here by slower play, Parker vice versa).



PlayerPosTmTS%SA%Pts/48TS% - Avg
Tony ParkerPGSAS54.0%30.5%23.40.5%
LeBron JamesPFMIA62.5%28.1%22.39.0%
Tim DuncanCSAS50.3%27.1%19.4-3.2%
Manu GinobiliSGSAS51.2%24.8%18.1-2.2%
Jerryd BaylessPGMEM50.3%24.3%17.1-3.2%
Zach RandolphPFMEM56.0%24.2%19.02.6%
Paul GeorgeSFIND51.5%23.3%16.1-1.9%
Mike ConleyPGMEM53.2%22.8%16.9-0.2%
Dwyane WadeSGMIA47.4%22.6%13.6-6.1%
David WestPFIND54.3%21.9%16.00.8%
Ray AllenSGMIA65.4%21.8%18.211.9%
Marc GasolCMEM57.0%21.5%17.13.6%
George HillPGIND55.5%21.3%15.82.0%
Chris BoshCMIA56.8%20.6%14.93.3%



Also, check out Miami...

PlayerPosTmTS%SA%Pts/48TS% - Avg
LeBron JamesPFMIA62.5%28.1%22.39.0%
Chris AndersenCMIA78.0%18.8%18.724.5%
Ray AllenSGMIA65.4%21.8%18.211.9%
Norris ColePGMIA77.3%15.2%15.023.9%
Chris BoshCMIA56.8%20.6%14.93.3%
Dwyane WadeSGMIA47.4%22.6%13.6-6.1%
Udonis HaslemPFMIA59.7%16.0%12.26.3%
Mario ChalmersPGMIA52.4%14.5%9.7-1.0%
Shane BattierSFMIA43.2%14.9%8.2-10.2%

The Sweet 16 and Beyond


Here are the results of my latest 10,000 simulations of the tournament.

Notable Notes:
Expected number of double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16:   2.5
Odds of all four 1-seeds making it to the Sweet 16:   27%
Odds of La Salle making it to the Sweet 16:   37%               

regsds16e8f4title gameChampexp. Wins
E1Indiana90%69%55%36%23%3.74
S3Florida78%65%44%26%16%3.28
W1Gonzaga78%63%41%25%14%3.20
MW1Louisville67%52%34%20%10%2.83
W2Ohio St.73%51%28%15%7%2.74
S4Michigan69%42%22%11%6%2.50
MW2Duke64%41%22%11%5%2.43
E2Miami FL70%46%16%7%3%2.42
W6Arizona82%33%13%5%1%2.34
MW3Michigan St.68%31%14%6%2%2.21
E4Syracuse76%24%13%5%2%2.21
S7San Diego St.82%21%7%2%1%2.12
S1Kansas58%27%12%5%2%2.05
MW4St. Louis65%20%9%3%1%1.98
E3Marquette58%25%7%2%1%1.92
W12Mississippi63%18%7%2%1%1.92
MW8Colorado St.33%20%10%4%2%1.69
S8North Carolina42%17%6%2%1%1.68
MW7Creighton36%19%8%3%1%1.68
E6Butler42%15%3%1%0%1.62
S5Virginia Commonwealth31%13%4%1%0%1.51
E7Illinois30%13%3%1%0%1.47
W10Iowa St.27%14%4%1%0%1.47
W13La Salle37%7%2%0%0%1.46
MW12Oregon35%7%2%0%0%1.45
MW6Memphis32%9%2%1%0%1.43
S11Minnesota22%13%5%1%0%1.42
W9Wichita St.22%12%4%1%0%1.40
E12California24%3%1%0%0%1.28
W14Harvard18%3%0%0%0%1.21
S15Florida Gulf Coast18%1%0%0%0%1.19
E9Temple10%3%1%0%0%1.15

Simulated Tournament, Luck-Adjusted Style

Alright...so I did another 10,000 simulations, but I used a combination of my luck-adjustments and Ken Pomeroy's strength of schedule to come up with some decent results. Notably, turnovers (offensive and defensive) are far more important here.



ro32s16e8f4title gameChampexp. Wins
1Indiana100%85%68%58%38%26%3.74
2Florida99%81%64%43%24%15%3.26
3Louisville100%71%59%39%23%12%3.03
4Gonzaga100%67%49%33%21%11%2.81
5Ohio St.97%70%49%25%13%6%2.60
6Michigan92%73%48%25%13%7%2.58
7Duke99%69%46%24%12%5%2.55
8Miami FL95%67%47%15%6%2%2.32
9Syracuse96%72%21%13%5%2%2.09
10Kansas99%62%29%11%4%2%2.07
11Georgetown97%63%19%8%3%1%1.90
12Michigan St.84%56%26%11%5%2%1.83
13Wisconsin73%56%24%13%7%3%1.76
14New Mexico88%51%19%6%2%1%1.67
15Marquette71%46%21%5%1%0%1.44
16Arizona73%39%15%5%2%0%1.34
17Pittsburgh73%28%17%10%5%2%1.34
18St. Louis75%43%11%4%1%0%1.34
19North Carolina75%33%12%4%1%1%1.26
20Creighton65%23%12%5%2%1%1.08
21Oklahoma St.61%32%7%3%1%0%1.04
22North Carolina St.74%13%7%4%1%0%0.99
23Colorado St.57%18%13%7%3%1%0.99
24Virginia Commonwealth67%19%8%2%1%0%0.97
25Butler56%25%9%1%0%0%0.91
26San Diego St.57%23%5%1%0%0%0.87
27Kansas St.60%20%4%1%0%0%0.86
28Notre Dame54%17%9%3%1%0%0.83
29Nevada Las Vegas59%18%3%1%0%0%0.81
30Minnesota58%12%6%2%1%0%0.79
31Colorado51%16%8%1%0%0%0.77
32St. Mary's44%21%8%3%1%0%0.76
33Illinois49%15%7%1%0%0%0.73
34Iowa St.46%12%6%2%1%0%0.67
35Bucknell44%17%5%1%0%0%0.67
36Missouri43%11%6%3%1%0%0.64
37Memphis42%15%4%1%0%0%0.62
38Oklahoma43%14%2%1%0%0%0.60
39Oregon39%17%3%1%0%0%0.59
40UCLA42%7%3%1%0%0%0.54
41California41%10%1%0%0%0%0.51
42Cincinnati35%8%3%1%0%0%0.46
43Mississippi27%15%3%1%0%0%0.46
44Davidson29%13%3%0%0%0%0.46
45Akron33%6%1%0%0%0%0.41
46Belmont27%8%2%0%0%0%0.37
47Wichita St.27%5%2%1%0%0%0.35
48New Mexico St.25%8%1%0%0%0%0.34
49Villanova25%5%1%0%0%0%0.32
50Boise St.23%6%1%0%0%0%0.31
51Temple26%2%0%0%0%0%0.29
52Valparaiso16%5%1%0%0%0%0.22
53La Salle16%3%0%0%0%0%0.20
54Middle Tennessee14%4%1%0%0%0%0.19
55Harvard12%2%0%0%0%0%0.14
56South Dakota St.8%2%0%0%0%0%0.10
57Pacific5%1%0%0%0%0%0.06
58Montana4%1%0%0%0%0%0.04
59Florida Gulf Coast3%1%0%0%0%0%0.04
60Iona3%0%0%0%0%0%0.04
61Northwestern St.1%0%0%0%0%0%0.01
62Western Kentucky1%0%0%0%0%0%0.01
63Albany1%0%0%0%0%0%0.01
64Southern0%0%0%0%0%0%0.00
65Long Island0%0%0%0%0%0%0.00
66North Carolina A&T0%0%0%0%0%0%0.00
67Liberty0%0%0%0%0%0%0.00

Simulated Tournament, LRMC Style

I simulated the NCAA tournament 10,000 times based on the LRMC ratings. Just a pure-point-margin version of Ken Pomeroy's table. Use responsibly!



ro32s16e8f4title gamechampExp. Wins
1Indiana100%87%70%55%31%19%3.62
2Florida96%85%72%52%34%22%3.61
3Gonzaga100%78%63%48%31%18%3.37
4Louisville100%77%63%41%23%11%3.16
5Kansas99%83%53%24%12%6%2.77
6Miami (FL)95%73%54%21%8%3%2.55
7Ohio St.94%71%48%21%11%4%2.50
8Duke96%57%39%21%10%4%2.28
9Michigan87%60%30%11%5%2%1.95
10Syracuse90%62%19%10%3%1%1.85
11Georgetown90%56%14%5%2%1%1.67
12Creighton77%37%23%11%5%2%1.55
13Michigan St.79%45%18%7%3%1%1.52
14Wisconsin68%49%16%9%4%1%1.46
15New Mexico81%41%17%5%2%0%1.45
16Saint Louis73%38%10%3%1%0%1.26
17Oklahoma St.64%38%11%4%1%0%1.18
18Marquette56%33%13%3%1%0%1.05
19VCU65%27%9%3%1%0%1.05
20UNLV67%27%5%2%1%0%1.02
21Arizona53%30%12%3%1%0%1.01
22Bucknell58%26%9%2%0%0%0.95
23Kansas St.64%24%4%2%1%0%0.95
24Pittsburgh59%15%8%4%2%1%0.89
25San Diego St.57%25%5%1%0%0%0.88
26Iowa St.58%18%9%2%1%0%0.87
27N.C. State68%11%5%2%1%0%0.86
28Belmont47%25%9%2%1%0%0.84
29North Carolina64%13%4%1%0%0%0.81
30Davidson44%24%8%2%0%0%0.78
31Minnesota61%10%5%1%0%0%0.78
32Colorado53%15%7%1%0%0%0.76
33Colorado St.52%12%7%3%1%0%0.75
34Middle Tenn. St.35%20%8%3%1%0%0.68
35Missouri48%10%6%2%1%0%0.67
36Memphis40%17%5%1%0%0%0.64
37Butler42%16%4%1%0%0%0.64
38Illinois47%11%5%1%0%0%0.63
39Oklahoma43%16%2%1%0%0%0.62
40Notre Dame42%10%4%1%0%0%0.56
41Oregon36%16%3%1%0%0%0.55
42Wichita St.41%7%4%2%1%0%0.55
43Mississippi32%17%3%1%0%0%0.54
44Akron35%10%2%0%0%0%0.48
45UCLA39%4%2%0%0%0%0.46
46St. Mary's25%12%4%1%0%0%0.43
47California33%9%1%0%0%0%0.43
48Villanova36%4%1%0%0%0%0.42
49New Mexico St.27%8%1%0%0%0%0.36
50Temple32%2%1%0%0%0%0.35
51Cincinnati23%5%2%0%0%0%0.31
52Boise St.21%6%1%0%0%0%0.28
53Valparaiso21%6%1%0%0%0%0.28
54Harvard19%4%0%0%0%0%0.23
55La Salle15%4%0%0%0%0%0.19
56South Dakota St.13%3%0%0%0%0%0.17
57Fla Gulf Coast10%3%0%0%0%0%0.13
58Montana10%2%0%0%0%0%0.13
59Iona6%2%0%0%0%0%0.08
60Pacific5%1%0%0%0%0%0.06
61Northwestern St.4%1%0%0%0%0%0.05
62Albany4%1%0%0%0%0%0.04
63West. Kentucky1%0%0%0%0%0%0.01
64Southern0%0%0%0%0%0%0.00
65LIU Brooklyn0%0%0%0%0%0%0.00
66Liberty0%0%0%0%0%0%0.00
67N.C. A&T0%0%0%0%0%0%0.00

Exactly How Good Is R. Kelly?

YOU SEE ME RUNNIN' THROUGH THAT OPEN DOOOOR.
Before I begin, I must honor the fact that I am a die-hard Carolina fan. I bleed Carolina blue and I hate Duke the instant I wake up each morning. But that cannot change the impact of the beardy white man, R. Kelly.

You might remember last season that I tweeted LeHigh's praises in terms of their ability to possibly beat Duke, *even before the brackets came out*...but my statistics pushed LeHigh's odds way up when we learned that Kelly wouldn't make the LeHigh game...because in my system, he was definitely their best player.

I've heard a lot of claims from all sorts of people on how good R. Kelly is...the boys over at 99.9 The Fan (Raleigh represent...) seem to think that he has made Duke's defense impeccably better. I'm not so sure...but only because Ken Pomeroy mentioned that in a blog post.


By my SPR measure that estimates per-100-possession impact, he is the best player in the ACC (same as Daniel Myers' ASPM. But I am more interested in how much worse their defense got with him out. Let us investigate.

I looked at Duke's expected efficiency differential based on kenpom.com efficiency stats (and home-court advantage), versus how they actually played, and here's the difference we see:




So despite Kelly's immense impact on offense, we can tell that at least Duke's defense looks better with him on the floor. Sixty-four places better.



All-Overrated and All-Underrated NBA Teams, 2013


All-Underrated Squad
Nate Robinson, PG
Andre Iguodala, SG
Thaddeus Young, SF
Nick Collison, PF
Kevin Garnett, C

All-Overrated Squad
Deron Williams, PG
JR Smith, SG
Klay Thompson, SF
Earl Clark, PF
Javale McGee, C

BOOM.

Followers

About Me

I wish my heart were as often large as my hands.