For all your fancy-pants statistical needs.

Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN

NCAA Teams' Bench Impact

Bench Impact = estimated total Bench Rating per 100 possessions x %Minutes - estimated Starters' Rating per 100 possessions x %Minutes

-Wyoming/Colorado's bench impact is low because of true disparity between their starting 5 and their bench.
-Ohio State's bench is actually decent, but their starting 5 is significantly better....
-Grambling suffers immensely by not playing Quincy Roberts more -- EDIT -- this was because of the transfer rules that prevented Q-Rob from playing the first half of the season, so technically he was on their "bench" when I ranked his minutes played back in January. His presence was definitely the most notable discrepancy in minutes played and overall value because of that.

Bottom 25

teambench impact
2South Carolina Upstate-10.31
4Green Bay-9.14
5Alabama State-9.08
6Florida International-9.01
7Ohio State-8.96
8Northern Iowa-8.90
11Cal Poly-8.62
13Texas State-8.56
14Tennessee State-8.18
15South Carolina-7.94
18Jackson State-7.84
19Southeast Missouri State-7.78
24St. Francis (NY)-7.57

Top 25

teambench impact
2South Alabama2.79
4Colorado State2.50
5Loyola Marymount2.46
6North Carolina-Greensboro1.75
7Texas Southern1.53
8Oklahoma State1.39
9Western Carolina1.03
10William & Mary1.00
13California-Santa Barbara0.85
14Maryland-Eastern Shore0.68
15Western Michigan0.51
17Southern Mississippi0.41
18Alcorn State0.35
19Southeastern Louisiana0.35
20Southern Methodist0.28
22Rhode Island0.26
23Miami (FL)0.24
25East Tennessee State0.13

Top 25 Players as of 1/18/2011

I have adjusted minutes% for teammate quality and injuries (I factor back in minutes played above or below what we would expect a coach to play them with a number I call SQZ: how much more or less a coach squeezes out of a player over the course of a game.)

True Impact per Game = Efficiency Impact x (expected min% while healthy, with average teammates)

 rankplayerteamORTGusage%DRTGTrue Impact per Game
1Kevin JonesWest Virginia129.624.292.59.6
2Jared SullingerOhio State128.926.3769.4
3Damian LillardWeber State136.
4Marcus DenmonMissouri140.523.293.98.6
5Thomas RobinsonKansas117.328.278.78.5
6Anthony DavisKentucky140.51873.68.1
7Doug McDermottCreighton127.731.61027.9
8Kenny BoyntonFlorida135.924.6102.87.6
9Dominique MorrisonOral Roberts13125.4103.17.4
10Will BartonMemphis1192694.47.3
11Cody ZellerIndiana13422.2907.2
12J'Covan BrownTexas122.628.2100.77.1
13John ShurnaNorthwestern117.527.4102.47.0
14Mike ScottVirginia127.128.782.36.9
15Jae CrowderMarquette124.623.384.66.7
16Isaiah CanaanMurray State130.326.495.86.6
17Deshaun ThomasOhio State124.823.889.76.6
18Hollis ThompsonGeorgetown12921.3936.6
19John JenkinsVanderbilt127.126.31016.6
20Nate WoltersSouth Dakota State121.230101.96.4
21Ricardo RatliffeMissouri138.222.491.56.3
22Jeremy LambConnecticut120.923.61006.2
23Drew CrawfordNorthwestern119.125.5104.76.2
24Jordan TaylorWisconsin115.824.586.76.2
25Jason ClarkGeorgetown117.526.189.86.0

Top 25 Freshies, as of 1/11/2012

EDIT: Misleading title. This only includes games through 1/11, not 1/13.

By team impact (estimated efficiency margin impact times % of possessions played).

rankplayerteamconfORTGusage%DRTGEff Imp.Team Imp.
1Anthony DavisKentuckySEC13418719.376.79
2Cody ZellerIndianaBig Ten13422869.636.50
3Kevin PangosGonzagaWCC13221977.755.88
4Michael Kidd-GilchristKentuckySEC12021855.964.60
5Sheldon McClellanTexasBig 1213221967.174.58
6Spencer DinWiddieColoradoPac-1212721965.963.76
7Trey BurkeMichiganBig Ten11025974.303.67
8D'Angelo HarrisonSt. John's (NY)Big East116241023.813.32
9Austin RiversDukeACC108261034.473.32
10Seth TuttleNorthern IowaMVC12319896.143.23
11Kentavious Caldwell-PopeGeorgiaSEC10927994.153.18
12Adam SmithNorth Carolina-WilmingtonCAA116271114.083.09
13Jonathan HolmesTexasBig 1212619945.533.06
14Anthony DrmicBoise StateMWC12324984.663.06
15Omari GrierFlorida AtlanticSun Belt130211056.583.04
16Justin EdwardsMaineAEC12026993.973.01
17Otto PorterGeorgetownBig East11616884.192.85
18Jordan TolbertTexas TechBig 1211331964.682.76
19Rodney HoodMississippi StateSEC125171003.192.69
20Andre DrummondConnecticutBig East11220943.832.59
21B.J. YoungArkansasSEC11727944.322.56
22P.J. HairstonNorth CarolinaACC12426937.682.50
23Quinn CookDukeACC137201027.872.48
24Quincy MillerBaylorBig 1210925884.022.34
25Michael CaffeyLong Beach StateBig West12015984.342.33

Top 51 Overall NCAA Players as of 1/10

Games through 1/10.
Team Impact = (Estimated Efficiency Impact per 100 possessions) x (% of Possessions played in)
Where offensive and defensive efficiency impacts are estimated* by using offensive and defensive rating (& offensive usage%) at, and strength of schedule from

rankplayerteamconfOffensive Impact (100)Defensive Impact (100)Total Impact (100)Team ImpactMin%
1Damian LillardWeber StateBig Sky13.5-0.413.111.084%
2Kevin JonesWest VirginiaBig East7.
3Doug McDermottCreightonMVC11.1-0.610.58.177%
4Dominique MorrisonOral RobertsSummit9.0-
5Jared SullingerOhio StateBig Ten8.04.812.87.861%
6Marcus DenmonMissouriBig
7Isaiah CanaanMurray StateOVC8.
8Will BartonMemphisCUSA6.
9Thomas RobinsonKansasBig
10Kenny BoyntonFloridaSEC10.0-
11Mike ScottVirginiaACC7.
12Jae CrowderMarquetteBig East6.
13Anthony DavisKentuckySEC4.
14Cody ZellerIndianaBig Ten7.
15Nate WoltersSouth Dakota StateSummit8.2-
16Jeremy LambConnecticutBig East6.
17Noah HartsockBrigham YoungWCC5.
18Colt RyanEvansvilleMVC6.
19Jarrod JonesBall StateMAC6.
20Larry AndersonLong Beach StateBig West5.
21John JenkinsVanderbiltSEC7.
22Doron LambKentuckySEC7.
23Ryan BroekhoffValparaisoHorizon7.
24Ryan KellyDukeACC7.
25Hollis ThompsonGeorgetownBig East6.
26Deshaun ThomasOhio StateBig Ten6.
27Kevin PangosGonzagaWCC6.
28Drew CrawfordNorthwesternBig Ten6.9-
29Steven PledgerOklahomaBig
30Kris JosephSyracuseBig East5.
31C.J. McCollumLehighPatriot6.
32Jordan TheodoreSeton HallBig East4.
33Brian ConklinSaint LouisA-
34J'Covan BrownTexasBig
35Reggie HamiltonOaklandSummit7.8-
36Chase TapleySan Diego StateMWC5.
37Langston GallowaySaint Joseph'sA-
38Allen CrabbeCaliforniaPac-
39John ShurnaNorthwesternBig Ten6.
40Deonte BurtonNevadaWAC6.
41Zack RosenPennsylvaniaIvy6.1-
42Erick GreenVirginia TechACC6.
43Julian MavungaMiami (OH)MAC4.
44Draymond GreenMichigan StateBig Ten3.
45Chace StanbackNevada-Las VegasMWC6.
46Anthony RaffaCoastal CarolinaBig South4.
47Robbie HummelPurdueBig Ten5.
48Trevor RelefordAlabamaSEC4.
49Ricardo RatliffeMissouriBig
50Robert CovingtonTennessee StateOVC6.
51Tyler ZellerNorth CarolinaACC4.

So, Lillard is the primary reason that an otherwise-extremely-mediocre offensive team (Pomeroy subscribers only) is #57th in the Pomeroys for offense. Weber's second-best offensive player (Scott Bamforth) uses 10% usage less, and is 10 points per 100 less efficient.

When I sum up all of Weber State's offensive contributions, we get +14.4. Their adjusted offensive rating is only +8 or so on, so it's my guess that (but if we just fit players' performances to their team ratings, we get some extremely ugly results, so I don't do that...I am basing it on last year's fit for Strength of Schedule, however). Even if we multiply each player's offensive value by 0.6 (which is roughly the same as 8/14.4), Lillard is still a top-25 player.

Mike Scott is still also an extremely good player as far as the eye can see, and is even underrated by his minutes (like Sullinger).

* Not going to reveal the regression equation just yet. Or ever :-)

No Apologies, Just Numbers

Okay, some apologies.

My prior post has sparked a little bit of interest/intrigue/outrage/fear among college basketball fans.
Never fear! Happier numbers are on the way.

First, let me reiterate that these are based on advanced stats only, such as offensive rating and defensive rating, from There are no plus-minus stats involved.

I realized that there were some pretty important adjustments that needed to be made. First, that players with extremely high numbers in any one category were being skewed.* Second, that the strength of schedule adjustment was a little counter-intuitive, and a little too strong. I adjusted my ratings thusly.

Unfortunately, the sample size for this season does not produce very intuitive results at the moment, which I should have mentioned in my last post (so please don't destroy me for anything that looks strange...just chew on it). For example, that Weber State's Damian Lillard is number one in the system. While I am a huge fan of Lillard and would have no problem listing him up there at the end of the year if things remain the same, I am wary of the fact that his team impact is two full points higher than the next-highest (and his per-possession impact is higher than Sullinger's). As major-conference teams improve their strength of schedules during conference play and players get more minutes, things will even out.

As proof that things will even out, here is last year's top-10 in terms of overall Team Impact (efficiency impact times minutes-on-the-floor%). We can call this the Holy Grail 3.0

Player School Impact(100)  Team Eff. Impact
Kemba Walker Connecticut 13.1 12.1
Jordan Taylor Wisconsin 12.4 11.2
Talor Battle Penn State 10.3 9.8
Jimmer Fredette Brigham Young 11.0 9.7
Jared Sullinger Ohio State 12.2 9.6
JaJuan Johnson Purdue 10.4 9.2
Derrick Williams Arizona 11.8 8.7
Jon Leuer Wisconsin 10.4 8.7
Ben Hansbrough Notre Dame 9.7 8.4
Jon Diebler Ohio State 9.3 8.3

I hope most people wouldn't have a problem with this list.

So here are the current numbers, which are now split into offense and defense...separated by the Top-26 Major Conference Players and the Top 26 not-so-Major Conferences. (Had to include the older Zeller. It's the law.)



Notice I refrained from ranking players by their per-possession numbers...I think these are more intuitive and represent Player-of-the-Year candidates (if your coach didn't play you enough, you unfortunately didn't impact your team enough).

And look, Hummel is on a list! Now everyone can be happy. Even me!

* My method involved dividing advanced statistics such as Steal%, Assist%, or Offensive Rating by their league average. My NBA numbers had extremely high sample sizes and didn't have any problem with skewed we have that problem a lot more, especially in smaller categories (such as Steal%) rather than larger categories (the more all-encompassing "Offensive Rating").

The Holy Grail 2.5: NCAA Player Ratings (1/4/2012)

EDIT: I have updated my methodology and made things a little easier to understand, I hope:

Now that uses the same advanced stats for NBA and College players, it has become very simple and straightforward to create a statistical +/- based on advanced stats for college players.


In order to adjust for college, I simply use each advanced stat* divided by its league average. Then, applying the same to college works well. I fit the 2010-2011 season's worth of raw statistical +/- data to each team's efficiency margin, and then to their adjusted efficiency margin. I then built a model that combines raw statistical +/- and team strength of schedule (simply Adjusted Efficiency Margin mins Raw Efficiency Margin, via to give us an "adjusted Statistical +/-" that we will call (as we have before) Efficiency Impact.


For each player, we can look at Efficiency Impact per 100-possessions, and Team Efficiency Impact(their efficiency impact times the % of their team's possessions they played in).

Here are the top 100 players in both of those categories. First, efficiency impact per 100 possessions (25% of teams' minutes played to qualify)

rankplayerteamEfficiency Impact/100
1Jared SullingerOhio State19.4
2Russ SmithLouisville16.8
3Thomas RobinsonKansas15.8
4Damian LillardWeber State15.8
5Mike ScottVirginia14.9
6Dion WaitersSyracuse14.7
7James SoutherlandSyracuse14.0
8JaMychal GreenAlabama13.9
9Cody ZellerIndiana13.7
10C.J. McCollumLehigh13.6
11Marcus DenmonMissouri13.4
12Anthony DavisKentucky13.2
13Jae CrowderMarquette13.2
14Jared BerggrenWisconsin13.1
15Isaiah CanaanMurray State12.9
16Jarrod JonesBall State12.8
17Brian ConklinSaint Louis12.5
18Jamaal FranklinSan Diego State12.4
19Ryan PearsonGeorge Mason12.1
20Herb PopeSeton Hall11.7
21Doug McDermottCreighton11.5
22Arsalan KazemiRice11.4
23Kevin JonesWest Virginia11.4
24Anthony RaffaCoastal Carolina11.3
25Miguel PaulEast Carolina11.3
26Chase TapleySan Diego State11.2
27Ricardo RatliffeMissouri11.2
28Ryan EvansWisconsin11.1
29Henry SimsGeorgetown11.1
30Draymond GreenMichigan State10.9
31Cody EllisSaint Louis10.8
32Luke MartinezWyoming10.6
33Jereal ScottStephen F. Austin10.6
34Noah HartsockBrigham Young10.5
35Mike MoserNevada-Las Vegas10.5
36Tyler ZellerNorth Carolina10.4
37Carlos LopezNevada-Las Vegas10.4
38Quinn CookDuke10.3
39Will BartonMemphis10.3
40Kris JosephSyracuse10.3
41Rob JonesSaint Mary's (CA)10.2
42Dominique SuttonNorth Carolina Central10.2
43Jordan TaylorWisconsin10.2
44Jason ClarkGeorgetown10.2
45Ian HummerPrinceton10.2
46Steven WernerSam Houston State10.1
47Leonard WashingtonWyoming10.1
48Robert CovingtonTennessee State10.1
49Drew GordonNew Mexico10.0
50P.J. HairstonNorth Carolina10.0
51Trevor RelefordAlabama9.9
52Tony MitchellAlabama9.9
53Ryan KellyDuke9.8
54William BufordOhio State9.8
55Terrell HollowayXavier9.7
56Kenny BoyntonFlorida9.7
57Harrison BarnesNorth Carolina9.7
58John HensonNorth Carolina9.7
59Terell ParksWestern Illinois9.6
60Victor OladipoIndiana9.6
61Carl HallWichita State9.5
62Deshaun ThomasOhio State9.4
63Davante GardnerMarquette9.4
64Ken HortonCentral Connecticut State9.4
65Javon McCreaBuffalo9.4
66Joe RaglandWichita State9.4
67D'Aundray BrownCleveland State9.4
68Michael Kidd-GilchristKentucky9.3
69Steven PledgerOklahoma9.3
70Donte PooleMurray State9.3
71Robbie HummelPurdue9.3
72Brandon FortenberrySoutheastern Louisiana9.3
73Doron LambKentucky9.3
74Khris MiddletonTexas A&M9.2
75Evan SmotryczMichigan9.1
76Jackie CarmichaelIllinois State9.1
77Jorge GutierrezCalifornia9.0
78Chace StanbackNevada-Las Vegas9.0
79Velton JonesRobert Morris9.0
80Jaquon ParkerCincinnati9.0
81Kenton WalkerSaint Mary's (CA)8.9
82Kevin PangosGonzaga8.9
83Erick GreenVirginia Tech8.9
84Quincy AcyBaylor8.8
85Nate WoltersSouth Dakota State8.8
86Mark LyonsXavier8.8
87Arnett MoultrieMississippi State8.8
88D.J. CooperOhio8.7
89Sheldon McClellanTexas8.7
90Jamar SamuelsKansas State8.7
91Hollis ThompsonGeorgetown8.7
92Trevor MbakweMinnesota8.7
93Reggie BullockNorth Carolina8.7
94Tony SnellNew Mexico8.7
95Jamal FentonNew Mexico8.7
96Brad WaldowSaint Mary's (CA)8.6
97Scott SaundersBelmont8.6
98Mike Dixon, Missouri8.6
99Maurice KempEast Carolina8.5
100Jamar GulleyMissouri State8.5

rankplayerteamTeam Efficiency ImpactEfficiency Impact/100Min%
1Thomas RobinsonKansas12.315.877.7%
2Damian LillardWeber State12.115.876.8%
3Jared SullingerOhio State11.819.461.0%
4Jarrod JonesBall State11.312.888.6%
5Mike ScottVirginia10.714.972.2%
6Marcus DenmonMissouri10.513.478.6%
7C.J. McCollumLehigh10.413.676.3%
8Kevin JonesWest Virginia10.111.488.8%
9Isaiah CanaanMurray State9.812.976.1%
10Herb PopeSeton Hall9.711.783.2%
11Anthony DavisKentucky9.513.272.3%
12Anthony RaffaCoastal Carolina9.511.384.1%
13Cody ZellerIndiana9.213.767.1%
14Chase TapleySan Diego State9.011.280.7%
15Jae CrowderMarquette9.013.268.2%
16Draymond GreenMichigan State8.810.980.9%
17Jordan TaylorWisconsin8.810.286.4%
18Ryan PearsonGeorge Mason8.812.172.9%
19Brian ConklinSaint Louis8.712.569.6%
20Jared BerggrenWisconsin8.713.166.7%
21Ian HummerPrinceton8.610.284.5%
22Will BartonMemphis8.610.383.2%
23Miguel PaulEast Carolina8.511.374.7%
24Rob JonesSaint Mary's (CA)8.410.282.2%
25Noah HartsockBrigham Young8.310.578.6%
26Doug McDermottCreighton8.211.571.1%
27William BufordOhio State8.29.883.5%
28Russ SmithLouisville8.216.848.4%
29Dominique SuttonNorth Carolina Central8.110.278.9%
30Tony MitchellAlabama7.99.980.0%
31Dion WaitersSyracuse7.814.753.2%
32Nate WoltersSouth Dakota State7.88.888.6%
33Ryan EvansWisconsin7.711.168.8%
34Robert CovingtonTennessee State7.610.175.5%
35Mike MoserNevada-Las Vegas7.610.572.5%
36Kenny BoyntonFlorida7.69.778.0%
37Ken HortonCentral Connecticut State7.69.480.4%
38JaMychal GreenAlabama7.513.954.0%
39D'Aundray BrownCleveland State7.59.480.4%
40Jason ClarkGeorgetown7.510.273.6%
41Arsalan KazemiRice7.511.465.2%
42Drew GordonNew Mexico7.410.074.0%
43Kris JosephSyracuse7.410.372.2%
44Terrell HollowayXavier7.49.776.0%
45Jordan TheodoreSeton Hall7.47.795.9%
46Jereal ScottStephen F. Austin7.410.669.8%
47Jamaal FranklinSan Diego State7.212.457.7%
48Trevor RelefordAlabama7.19.971.9%
49Michael Kidd-GilchristKentucky7.19.376.2%
50Doron LambKentucky7.19.376.2%
51Robbie HummelPurdue7.09.375.5%
52Deshaun ThomasOhio State7.09.474.2%
53Larry AndersonLong Beach State6.97.987.1%
54Tim FrazierPenn State6.97.789.2%
55Terell ParksWestern Illinois6.99.671.8%
56D.J. CooperOhio6.88.778.2%
57Jeremy LambConnecticut6.88.184.1%
58Kevin PangosGonzaga6.88.976.7%
59Langston GallowaySaint Joseph's6.87.985.8%
60Edwin FuquanSeton Hall6.87.689.7%
61Greg ManganoYale6.88.085.2%
62J'Covan BrownTexas6.88.084.6%
63Ricardo RatliffeMissouri6.811.260.5%
64Henry SimsGeorgetown6.811.161.0%
65Ryan BroekhoffValparaiso6.78.579.2%
66Erick GreenVirginia Tech6.78.975.4%
67Tyler ZellerNorth Carolina6.710.464.3%
68Velton JonesRobert Morris6.79.074.0%
69John HensonNorth Carolina6.69.768.8%
70Luke MartinezWyoming6.610.662.9%
71Donte PooleMurray State6.69.371.3%
72Isaiah WilkersonNJIT6.67.884.6%
73Jared CunninghamOregon State6.57.784.5%
74Dominique MorrisonOral Roberts6.57.388.6%
75Julian MavungaMiami (OH)6.45.9108.9%
76Steven PledgerOklahoma6.49.368.7%
77Drew CrawfordNorthwestern6.47.683.8%
78Quincy AcyBaylor6.38.871.9%
79Javon McCreaBuffalo6.39.467.4%
80Bradford BurgessVirginia Commonwealth6.37.980.0%
81Hollis ThompsonGeorgetown6.38.772.5%
82Leonard WashingtonWyoming6.310.162.3%
83Harrison BarnesNorth Carolina6.39.765.0%
84Jorge GutierrezCalifornia6.29.068.8%
85John JenkinsVanderbilt6.28.276.0%
86Ryan KellyDuke6.29.862.9%
87Aaron CraftOhio State6.28.077.7%
88Victor OladipoIndiana6.29.664.6%
89Matthew DellavedovaSaint Mary's (CA)6.26.891.1%
90Reggie HamiltonOakland6.17.285.9%
91Andre RobersonColorado6.18.571.8%
92Joe Harris Virginia6.18.075.9%
93Colt RyanEvansville6.07.580.7%
94Sean KilpatrickCincinnati6.07.184.4%
95Mike MuscalaBucknell6.07.678.8%
96Kerron JohnsonBelmont6.08.471.4%
97Tony SnellNew Mexico5.98.768.3%
98Chace StanbackNevada-Las Vegas5.99.065.8%
99Jeffery TaylorVanderbilt5.97.777.0%
100DeAndre KaneMarshall5.97.281.9%

Quite a few mid-majors at the top here, but the strength-of-schedule adjustment is well-calibrated. These will probably match somewhat closely to Pomeroy's "KPOY."

* - My raw regression involves Defensive Rating, Offensive Rating, Usage%, Assist%, and Steal%.

NCAA Power Ratings

I now have my own usually-updated NCAA power ratings. (Located at the top of the page).

These are simply based on point margin, and I adjust for consistency, recency, and which teams appear to play up or down to their opponents (i.e. fixing the issue of cupcake-killers), in the spirit of the work of DSMok1 aka Daniel.

"Original Rating" is basically SRS, simply adjusting a team's point differential by their opponent's point differential several layers down.

"Quality Rating" weighs each opponent/game by their "original rating" and whether or not a game was at home or away. The final result of a very difficult game is worth the most in this average, and the final result of a very easy game impacts this the least.

"Cupcake Rating" does the exact opposite of "quality rating."

Finally, each team is ranked by using my expected outcome (from Quality/Cupcake/Original ratings) against the top-25 "Original" teams. This gives us a basic idea of how teams might fare come March.


About Me

I wish my heart were as often large as my hands.