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The Sweet 16 and Beyond


Here are the results of my latest 10,000 simulations of the tournament.

Notable Notes:
Expected number of double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16:   2.5
Odds of all four 1-seeds making it to the Sweet 16:   27%
Odds of La Salle making it to the Sweet 16:   37%               

regsds16e8f4title gameChampexp. Wins
E1Indiana90%69%55%36%23%3.74
S3Florida78%65%44%26%16%3.28
W1Gonzaga78%63%41%25%14%3.20
MW1Louisville67%52%34%20%10%2.83
W2Ohio St.73%51%28%15%7%2.74
S4Michigan69%42%22%11%6%2.50
MW2Duke64%41%22%11%5%2.43
E2Miami FL70%46%16%7%3%2.42
W6Arizona82%33%13%5%1%2.34
MW3Michigan St.68%31%14%6%2%2.21
E4Syracuse76%24%13%5%2%2.21
S7San Diego St.82%21%7%2%1%2.12
S1Kansas58%27%12%5%2%2.05
MW4St. Louis65%20%9%3%1%1.98
E3Marquette58%25%7%2%1%1.92
W12Mississippi63%18%7%2%1%1.92
MW8Colorado St.33%20%10%4%2%1.69
S8North Carolina42%17%6%2%1%1.68
MW7Creighton36%19%8%3%1%1.68
E6Butler42%15%3%1%0%1.62
S5Virginia Commonwealth31%13%4%1%0%1.51
E7Illinois30%13%3%1%0%1.47
W10Iowa St.27%14%4%1%0%1.47
W13La Salle37%7%2%0%0%1.46
MW12Oregon35%7%2%0%0%1.45
MW6Memphis32%9%2%1%0%1.43
S11Minnesota22%13%5%1%0%1.42
W9Wichita St.22%12%4%1%0%1.40
E12California24%3%1%0%0%1.28
W14Harvard18%3%0%0%0%1.21
S15Florida Gulf Coast18%1%0%0%0%1.19
E9Temple10%3%1%0%0%1.15

Simulated Tournament, Luck-Adjusted Style

Alright...so I did another 10,000 simulations, but I used a combination of my luck-adjustments and Ken Pomeroy's strength of schedule to come up with some decent results. Notably, turnovers (offensive and defensive) are far more important here.



ro32s16e8f4title gameChampexp. Wins
1Indiana100%85%68%58%38%26%3.74
2Florida99%81%64%43%24%15%3.26
3Louisville100%71%59%39%23%12%3.03
4Gonzaga100%67%49%33%21%11%2.81
5Ohio St.97%70%49%25%13%6%2.60
6Michigan92%73%48%25%13%7%2.58
7Duke99%69%46%24%12%5%2.55
8Miami FL95%67%47%15%6%2%2.32
9Syracuse96%72%21%13%5%2%2.09
10Kansas99%62%29%11%4%2%2.07
11Georgetown97%63%19%8%3%1%1.90
12Michigan St.84%56%26%11%5%2%1.83
13Wisconsin73%56%24%13%7%3%1.76
14New Mexico88%51%19%6%2%1%1.67
15Marquette71%46%21%5%1%0%1.44
16Arizona73%39%15%5%2%0%1.34
17Pittsburgh73%28%17%10%5%2%1.34
18St. Louis75%43%11%4%1%0%1.34
19North Carolina75%33%12%4%1%1%1.26
20Creighton65%23%12%5%2%1%1.08
21Oklahoma St.61%32%7%3%1%0%1.04
22North Carolina St.74%13%7%4%1%0%0.99
23Colorado St.57%18%13%7%3%1%0.99
24Virginia Commonwealth67%19%8%2%1%0%0.97
25Butler56%25%9%1%0%0%0.91
26San Diego St.57%23%5%1%0%0%0.87
27Kansas St.60%20%4%1%0%0%0.86
28Notre Dame54%17%9%3%1%0%0.83
29Nevada Las Vegas59%18%3%1%0%0%0.81
30Minnesota58%12%6%2%1%0%0.79
31Colorado51%16%8%1%0%0%0.77
32St. Mary's44%21%8%3%1%0%0.76
33Illinois49%15%7%1%0%0%0.73
34Iowa St.46%12%6%2%1%0%0.67
35Bucknell44%17%5%1%0%0%0.67
36Missouri43%11%6%3%1%0%0.64
37Memphis42%15%4%1%0%0%0.62
38Oklahoma43%14%2%1%0%0%0.60
39Oregon39%17%3%1%0%0%0.59
40UCLA42%7%3%1%0%0%0.54
41California41%10%1%0%0%0%0.51
42Cincinnati35%8%3%1%0%0%0.46
43Mississippi27%15%3%1%0%0%0.46
44Davidson29%13%3%0%0%0%0.46
45Akron33%6%1%0%0%0%0.41
46Belmont27%8%2%0%0%0%0.37
47Wichita St.27%5%2%1%0%0%0.35
48New Mexico St.25%8%1%0%0%0%0.34
49Villanova25%5%1%0%0%0%0.32
50Boise St.23%6%1%0%0%0%0.31
51Temple26%2%0%0%0%0%0.29
52Valparaiso16%5%1%0%0%0%0.22
53La Salle16%3%0%0%0%0%0.20
54Middle Tennessee14%4%1%0%0%0%0.19
55Harvard12%2%0%0%0%0%0.14
56South Dakota St.8%2%0%0%0%0%0.10
57Pacific5%1%0%0%0%0%0.06
58Montana4%1%0%0%0%0%0.04
59Florida Gulf Coast3%1%0%0%0%0%0.04
60Iona3%0%0%0%0%0%0.04
61Northwestern St.1%0%0%0%0%0%0.01
62Western Kentucky1%0%0%0%0%0%0.01
63Albany1%0%0%0%0%0%0.01
64Southern0%0%0%0%0%0%0.00
65Long Island0%0%0%0%0%0%0.00
66North Carolina A&T0%0%0%0%0%0%0.00
67Liberty0%0%0%0%0%0%0.00

Simulated Tournament, LRMC Style

I simulated the NCAA tournament 10,000 times based on the LRMC ratings. Just a pure-point-margin version of Ken Pomeroy's table. Use responsibly!



ro32s16e8f4title gamechampExp. Wins
1Indiana100%87%70%55%31%19%3.62
2Florida96%85%72%52%34%22%3.61
3Gonzaga100%78%63%48%31%18%3.37
4Louisville100%77%63%41%23%11%3.16
5Kansas99%83%53%24%12%6%2.77
6Miami (FL)95%73%54%21%8%3%2.55
7Ohio St.94%71%48%21%11%4%2.50
8Duke96%57%39%21%10%4%2.28
9Michigan87%60%30%11%5%2%1.95
10Syracuse90%62%19%10%3%1%1.85
11Georgetown90%56%14%5%2%1%1.67
12Creighton77%37%23%11%5%2%1.55
13Michigan St.79%45%18%7%3%1%1.52
14Wisconsin68%49%16%9%4%1%1.46
15New Mexico81%41%17%5%2%0%1.45
16Saint Louis73%38%10%3%1%0%1.26
17Oklahoma St.64%38%11%4%1%0%1.18
18Marquette56%33%13%3%1%0%1.05
19VCU65%27%9%3%1%0%1.05
20UNLV67%27%5%2%1%0%1.02
21Arizona53%30%12%3%1%0%1.01
22Bucknell58%26%9%2%0%0%0.95
23Kansas St.64%24%4%2%1%0%0.95
24Pittsburgh59%15%8%4%2%1%0.89
25San Diego St.57%25%5%1%0%0%0.88
26Iowa St.58%18%9%2%1%0%0.87
27N.C. State68%11%5%2%1%0%0.86
28Belmont47%25%9%2%1%0%0.84
29North Carolina64%13%4%1%0%0%0.81
30Davidson44%24%8%2%0%0%0.78
31Minnesota61%10%5%1%0%0%0.78
32Colorado53%15%7%1%0%0%0.76
33Colorado St.52%12%7%3%1%0%0.75
34Middle Tenn. St.35%20%8%3%1%0%0.68
35Missouri48%10%6%2%1%0%0.67
36Memphis40%17%5%1%0%0%0.64
37Butler42%16%4%1%0%0%0.64
38Illinois47%11%5%1%0%0%0.63
39Oklahoma43%16%2%1%0%0%0.62
40Notre Dame42%10%4%1%0%0%0.56
41Oregon36%16%3%1%0%0%0.55
42Wichita St.41%7%4%2%1%0%0.55
43Mississippi32%17%3%1%0%0%0.54
44Akron35%10%2%0%0%0%0.48
45UCLA39%4%2%0%0%0%0.46
46St. Mary's25%12%4%1%0%0%0.43
47California33%9%1%0%0%0%0.43
48Villanova36%4%1%0%0%0%0.42
49New Mexico St.27%8%1%0%0%0%0.36
50Temple32%2%1%0%0%0%0.35
51Cincinnati23%5%2%0%0%0%0.31
52Boise St.21%6%1%0%0%0%0.28
53Valparaiso21%6%1%0%0%0%0.28
54Harvard19%4%0%0%0%0%0.23
55La Salle15%4%0%0%0%0%0.19
56South Dakota St.13%3%0%0%0%0%0.17
57Fla Gulf Coast10%3%0%0%0%0%0.13
58Montana10%2%0%0%0%0%0.13
59Iona6%2%0%0%0%0%0.08
60Pacific5%1%0%0%0%0%0.06
61Northwestern St.4%1%0%0%0%0%0.05
62Albany4%1%0%0%0%0%0.04
63West. Kentucky1%0%0%0%0%0%0.01
64Southern0%0%0%0%0%0%0.00
65LIU Brooklyn0%0%0%0%0%0%0.00
66Liberty0%0%0%0%0%0%0.00
67N.C. A&T0%0%0%0%0%0%0.00

Exactly How Good Is R. Kelly?

YOU SEE ME RUNNIN' THROUGH THAT OPEN DOOOOR.
Before I begin, I must honor the fact that I am a die-hard Carolina fan. I bleed Carolina blue and I hate Duke the instant I wake up each morning. But that cannot change the impact of the beardy white man, R. Kelly.

You might remember last season that I tweeted LeHigh's praises in terms of their ability to possibly beat Duke, *even before the brackets came out*...but my statistics pushed LeHigh's odds way up when we learned that Kelly wouldn't make the LeHigh game...because in my system, he was definitely their best player.

I've heard a lot of claims from all sorts of people on how good R. Kelly is...the boys over at 99.9 The Fan (Raleigh represent...) seem to think that he has made Duke's defense impeccably better. I'm not so sure...but only because Ken Pomeroy mentioned that in a blog post.


By my SPR measure that estimates per-100-possession impact, he is the best player in the ACC (same as Daniel Myers' ASPM. But I am more interested in how much worse their defense got with him out. Let us investigate.

I looked at Duke's expected efficiency differential based on kenpom.com efficiency stats (and home-court advantage), versus how they actually played, and here's the difference we see:




So despite Kelly's immense impact on offense, we can tell that at least Duke's defense looks better with him on the floor. Sixty-four places better.



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About Me

I wish my heart were as often large as my hands.