For all your fancy-pants statistical needs.

Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN


I finally bought Dean Oliver's book, "Basketball on Paper" -- and I think I am onto a breakthrough!

Dean Oliver actually uses a statistical formula based on standard deviation to prove the percent chance that a team will win a game! Unfortunately, Dean has not done nearly as much as Ken Pomeroy in terms of figuring out how to adjust statistics for quality of opponents. So currently I am working on a system that turns Kenpom's predictions into chance of win.

Dean Oliver's formula is as follows:

Win%=NormsDist(Point Margin/Standard Deviation of Point Margin)

so if I perhaps used Kenpom's predictions--

Chance of Win%=Normsdist(Predicted Point Margin/Standard Deviation of Actual Minus Predicted Point Margins of both Teams)

This gives us a good number (for example, 2008-2009 North Carolina posts an on-season 96.5%, whereas the Log5 formula puts them at 97.7%) -- but I am still unable to adjust for opponents' inconsistency. Oh well -- it's definitely a step in the right direction!

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I wish my heart were as often large as my hands.