Game-Changers for NCAA Tourney Teams

Here we'll be taking a look at what is likely to alter a team's predicted final score (based on Ken Pomeroy's rankings - http://kenpom.com and the LRMC's rankings - http://www2.isye.gatech.edu/~jsokol/lrmc/)


The two things we'll be doing:

1)We'll describe what part of Ken Pomeroy's Four Factors stats (of a team's opponents) affects the predicted outcome. Relies on = is ranked high in, does not rely on= is ranked low in. All these numbers can be found on the team pages at Kenpom.com

2) We'll measure a team's predictability (in terms of consistency of actual versus expected point margin with an average value of 10.9).

-Duke: (#1 Pomeroy, #2 LRMC, #2 bLRMC)
-Predictability: +1.1 points above average
-When opponents' offense relies on heavy free-throw shooting, Duke fares better. (Correlation of +.34)
-When opponents' defense DOES NOT rely on heavy defensive rebounding, Duke fares worse. (Correlation of -.28)
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-Kansas: (#2 Pomeroy, #1 LRMC, #1 bLRMC)
-Predictability: -.2 points above average
-When opponents' offense relies on good field-goal shooting, Kansas fares worse. (Correlation of -.43)
-When opponents' offense relies on heavy offensive rebounding, Kansas fares better. (Correlation of +.33)

-When opponents' defense DOES NOT rely on field-goal percentage, Kansas fares worse. (Correlation of -.34)

-Wisconsin: (#3 Pomeroy, #13 LRMC, #9 bLRMC)
-Predictability: +.3 points above average

-When opponents' offense relies on good field-goal shooting, Wisconsin fares worse. (Correlation of -.31)
-When opponents' defense relies on field-goal %, Wisconsin fares better. (Correlation of +.24)

-Ohio St: (#4 Pomeroy, #7 LRMC, #5 bLRMC)
-Predictability: -.5 points above average

-When opponents' offense relies on good field-goal shooting, Ohio St. fares better. (Correlation of +.24)
-When opponents' defense DOES NOT rely on field-goal %, Ohio St. fares worse. (Correlation of -.30)