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Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN

New Stat: SLEASY%

SLEASY% (Super-Lazy-Estimate-of-Assisted-Shots,Yo%)

Based on Dean Oliver's realization that a player's % of shots assisted on is extremely close to:
=1.14*(Team Assists - Player Assists)/(Team Field Goals Made)

I plugged this into a large NBA player dataset, where:
Team Assists per 100 = 5*Average(Assists per 100)
Team Field Goals Made per 100= 4*Average(Field-Goals-Made-Per-100)+playerFGMper100

The logic is a little hazy, especially considering that the "team" assists are made up of 5 average players, but we are subtracting a non-average player. So it's lazy.

OK, from here, we can get a linear regression. The correlation is EXTREMELY high, but definitely misses the mark on a few players with very high field-goals made or assists dished per 100:

SLEASY% = 0.73 - 0.03xAssistsPer100 - 0.01xFieldGoalsMadePer100

In my 8-year dataset for the NBA through 2011, we find the following top and bottom 10:

Pretty straightforward...low usage players up-top, frequent shooting PGs at the bottom. Can't assist yourself! Or can you ??

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