Made a slight change to my team ratings, giving slightly more weight (33% to be precise-ish) to a team's point differential. The remaining (67%) goes to efficiency differential, same as the last post.
Download the Spreadsheet Here
This version simply lists probabilities of getting to each round and expected ESPN scoring.
THE LEHIGH METHOD RETURNS: 2015 Bracket Cheat Sheet
I'm still stuck in the technological dark ages when it comes to sharing content. But I promise my analysis is as _____ as ever!
My simulations take into account rosters (rarely-used players getting less minutes), and luck-adjustment (aka The LeHigh Method which adjusts a team's four factors stats for which ones tend to be "luckier" than others).
Here's the excel sheet with my simulation results.
"PickMe" rating is a combination of three things:
-Which teams are projected to do better than typical seed expectation
-Which teams are highly volatile (can do significantly better than expected)
-The above two, weighted by typical round-by-round scoring (1st: 1, 2nd: 2, 3rd: 4, 4th: 8, 5th: 16, 6th: 32)
All data from sports-reference.com and kenpom.com. Thanks to @DSMok1 for helping me grab the S-R.com data.
My simulations take into account rosters (rarely-used players getting less minutes), and luck-adjustment (aka The LeHigh Method which adjusts a team's four factors stats for which ones tend to be "luckier" than others).
Here's the excel sheet with my simulation results.
"PickMe" rating is a combination of three things:
-Which teams are projected to do better than typical seed expectation
-Which teams are highly volatile (can do significantly better than expected)
-The above two, weighted by typical round-by-round scoring (1st: 1, 2nd: 2, 3rd: 4, 4th: 8, 5th: 16, 6th: 32)
All data from sports-reference.com and kenpom.com. Thanks to @DSMok1 for helping me grab the S-R.com data.
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