Each team is ranked by their expected # of wins.
-Odds come from 10,000 simulations of the tournament, taking into account injuries, Four Factors adjustments, pace, and if the teams have a very close rating - free throw%. I have updated the sheet to include an adjustment for shortened lineups (i.e. best players playing).
-Sleeper Rating is a rating from 1 to 5 that measures total volatility above Expected Wins, with successive rounds being weighted twice as much (i.e. using ESPN scoring). It's a good measure for teams with statistical ability to go further than my Exp. Wins suggests.
-Sleeper Rating is a rating from 1 to 5 that measures total volatility above Expected Wins, with successive rounds being weighted twice as much (i.e. using ESPN scoring). It's a good measure for teams with statistical ability to go further than my Exp. Wins suggests.
LARGE POOL PICK VALUE = (a team's odds - the public's expected odds )x total point value
This highlights high-value picks versus the field (namely, ESPN's bracket challenge)
VALUE + EXPECTED POINTS = Total Point Value + Large Pool Pick Value
This highlights high-value picks versus the field (namely, ESPN's bracket challenge)
VALUE + EXPECTED POINTS = Total Point Value + Large Pool Pick Value
This is a slightly more conservative version of "Large Pool Pick Value"
All statistics from kenpom.com except injury estimates from fivethirtyeight.com
Enjoy responsibly!
