For all your fancy-pants statistical needs.

Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN

2016 NCAA Tournament Bracket Cheat Sheet (UPDATED 3/17)

2016 NCAA Tournament Bracket Cheat Sheet (UPDATED GOOGLE DOC 3/17)

Each team is ranked by their expected # of wins.

-Odds come from 10,000 simulations of the tournament, taking into account injuries, Four Factors adjustments, pace, and if the teams have a very close rating - free throw%.  I have updated the sheet to include an adjustment for shortened lineups (i.e. best players playing).

-Sleeper Rating is a rating from 1 to 5 that measures total volatility above Expected Wins, with successive rounds being weighted twice as much (i.e. using ESPN scoring). It's a good measure for teams with statistical ability to go further than my Exp. Wins suggests.

LARGE POOL PICK VALUE = (a team's odds  -  the public's expected odds )x total point value
This highlights high-value picks versus the field (namely, ESPN's bracket challenge)

VALUE + EXPECTED POINTS = Total Point Value + Large Pool Pick Value
This is a slightly more conservative version of "Large Pool Pick Value"

All statistics from except injury estimates from
Enjoy responsibly!


  1. Thanks! FYI -- there is a bug in Michigan St.'s row (row 59, col AB). It rates them as a bottom 10 team.

  2. Or is MSU being so overbet that it brings down their overall rating that much?

    1. Their rating is pretty high (+24.4). They are getting seriously over"bet" by ESPN's Who Picked Whom?

    2. The oddity is MSU's "to Championship game" rating (16.7) vs. its "Championship" rating (3.9). I'm talking about column O in the second tab in the latest sheet. Something seems off there..

    3. These aren't ratings, they are pick values. Betters are severely overpicking them relative to my system's odds. In order to win a large pool you need to find the best picks that people *aren't* picking. So it's a low value for large pools (Relatively speaking)

  3. Based on your rankings, do you just create your bracket by who is higher on your list will always beat who is lower on your list? I think it is a cool concept, just not sure how the best way to make a bracket around it would look.

    1. I've made a couple of updates. I think for a small pool you could do that if you arrange by Expected Wins. For a larger pool it's kind of up to you.

  4. FYI --



About Me

I wish my heart were as often large as my hands.