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Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN

Fixing Kenpom.....

This year,'s stats weren't as accurate as I had hoped in predicting the tournament....

But fortunately, I have come up with a stat that fixes some of the errors....
The biggest two problems I found were:
1) that Memphis' best defenses (and Gonzaga's best offenses) came from absolutely crushing terrible teams. Beating Poop St. by 9000 or my Cat by 2390209 isn't exactly an important stat, kenpom.
2) Your Pyth is only adjusted by schedule for your opponents, and not your opponents' opponents. In this way, beating Gonzaga is worth more than beating North Carolina........

But I came up with a fairly good stat for #2! I used Kenpom's derivation for adjusting averages and added a step to it to add opponents' opponents. The new stat is:

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency=Raw Offensive Efficiency * Opponents' Opponents' Raw Offensive Efficiency / Opponents' Raw Defensive Efficiency


Adjusted Defensive Efficiency=Raw Defensive Efficiency * Opponents' Opponents' Raw Defensive Efficiency / Opponents' Raw Offensive Efficiency

This is important because: if (for offense) you only adjust to your opponents' raw defensive efficiency, you assume that their raw defensive efficiency is the best measure of how they really play!

1 comment:

  1. I emailed Ken about this. His numbers adjust for this! My bad.



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