Texas v. UNC

Ken Pomeroy's Stats predict Carolina to lose to Texas by 20 points. Here's my basic info you need to know on these 2 teams:

1) Texas' point margin vs. predicted has a standard deviation of about 8.07 points

2) North Carolina's point margin vs. predicted has a standard deviation of about 9.86

this gives us an average of 8.97 for both teams

which means that there is, according to the normal distribution:

-a 68.2% chance that Carolina's final margin is between {-11 and -29}

-a 95.4% chance that Carolina's final margin is between {-2 and -38}

Simply by using standard deviations, Carolina has a 1.29% chance of winning, less than Ken Pomeroy's estimation (using the Log5 method) of 5%