Below and Above The Bubble

Here are the 15 teams that reside just below the bubble for the NCAA tournament according to rpiforecast.com.

(at large rank) Team, Conf., LRMC rank

(#50) Florida St., ACC, #37
(#51) Maryland, ACC, #22
(#52) Virginia Tech, ACC, #40
(#53) Gonzaga, WCC, #39

(#54) UTEP, CUSA, #62
(#55) Richmond, A10, #51
(#56) UCLA, P10, #60

(#57) Southern Miss, CUSA, #75
(#58) UAB, CUSA, #73

(#59) Duquesne, A10, #30

(#60) Miami FL, ACC, #66

(#61) Clemson, ACC, #55

(#62) Old Dominion, CAA, #72
(#63) Marshall, CUSA, #67

(#64) South Carolina, SEC, #97
(#65) Penn St., B10, #69

This is looking pretty bad for those top ACC teams - the three right below Duke, Carolina, and Boston College in at-large probability. The biggest travesty here is obviously Maryland, who is #22 in the LRMC and #14 in Pomeroy. However, if they sustain their impressive defensive efficiency, win @ Boston College, and end up with 21 wins (as Pomeroy's numbers expect), I think they'll make it in.

Now let's look at the other end of the spectrum (the last 15 in):

(#49) Northwestern, B10, #38
(#48) Butler, Horz., #31
(#47) Colorado St., MWC, #68
(#46) Georgia, SEC, #54
(#45) Xavier, A10, #78
(#44) Washington St., P10, #34
(#43) Temple, A10, #33

(#42) Central Florida, CUSA, #56
(#41) Boston College, ACC, #52
(#40) Colorado, B12, #57
(#39) Iowa St., B12, #35
(#38) St. Mary's, WCC, #15
(#37) Arizona, P10, #21
(#36) Utah St., WAC, #43
(#35) Marquette, BE, #20

Xavier grabbing an at-large bid as the #78 team makes me shudder, but what can you do.