pdf - Player Trades that would Maximize Team Wins for the last half of the season.
corresponding messy excel sheet
EDIT: I forgot to to the 'trade' itself in Excel. It assumes that an average player would affect each team the same way. Amare is the biggest name on the 'both-sides-win' top 15 players. Not Kobe Bryant.
There are only a handful of players who, by trading, increase the value of both teams. This is an application of Simpson's Paradox.
The main math involved is roughly based on 'impact' value (which I have outlined earlier) in tandem with expected wins added, where I converted team efficiency margin into wins. (Every efficiency margin increase per 100 possessions is worth roughly 2.5 wins).
- ► 2013 (12)
- ► 2012 (19)
- ▼ 2011 (53)
- ► 2010 (25)