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Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN

Top 10 Offensive Impact Players, as of 12/2

I've updated the formula slightly* since I wrote the essay for the College Basketball Prospectus preview this year. Offensive Ratings, usage, and strength of schedule all from

Offensive impact estimates how much a player's contributions (by usage & efficiency) impact his team's offense above average (i.e. a +13 player would make an average team score 1.13 PPP, if the league average was 1 PPP).

PlayerTeamYearORTG%USGadjusted Offensive Impact
1Marcus DenmonMissouriSr143.324.213.0
2Damian LillardWeber St.Jr125.731.712.8
3Steven PledgerOklahomaJr146.521.711.9
4Darius Johnson-OdomMarquetteSr134.725.111.7
5Ricardo RatliffeMissouriSr142.922.511.6
6Doug McDermottCreightonSo127.228.711.6
7Anthony DrmicBoise St.Fr135.424.211.0
8Trae GoldenTennesseeSo122.630.511.0
9Tahj TateDelaware St.Fr120.831.210.9
10Justin EdwardsMaineFr130.225.910.8

I expect more Major-Conference heavy hitters to top this list soon. We've all taken the oath of small sample sizes here, right?

I don't feel comfortable sharing more than the top-10 because many players with Top-50 Offensive Impact numbers are cut out by not having high enough Offensive Ratings (for example: Jordan Taylor, at least at the moment) to be grouped on Pomeroy's site. But I don't have the time to input every NCAA player manually.

The coefficients for ORTG, Usage, and ORTG*Usage are still the same, but I used a more theory-based adjustment for strength of schedule. Also I added a term that helps predict team ORTG better (the numbers were too small so each player gets boosted by 1ish).

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