Sweeter than condensed milk.
Jibber-Jabber:
I don't hate Calipari a lot this year...
Hoos
Your Simple March Madness Playlist
Numbers:
MLSUOTFR
TSHT9TWGF
Low-Seeded Teams With Depth
High-Seeded Teams With...Shallowness
Cuse isn't much of a one-seed (Although this isn't because of Melo)
Parity!
Four-Factors goes 3 and 0.
Final Cheat Sheet (Updated)
Memphis v St Louis is unfortunate, I agree
Over and out.
2012 Bracket Cheat Sheet
Why yes, it is the most wonderful time of the year.
I've simulated the NCAA tournament 10,000 times with the following specifications
-Brigham Young out. Iona is out. I mistyped.
-Miss. Valley State out.
-Injured/disqualified players out.
-Minutes adjusted (better players getting more and vice versa).
-Home-court advantage adjusted for.
-Lucky efficiency accounted for (somewhat)..i.e. TO% and Defensive Rebound% are worth more than "usual," for example.
Using all of this, I created a bracket cheat sheet. Guaranteed to beat Pomeroy, Sagarin, and the LRMC!*
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/241759/TournamentCheatSheet.xlsx
Enjoy, and use responsibly. Don't gamble with this stuff.
*-OK, not really guaranteed.
I've simulated the NCAA tournament 10,000 times with the following specifications
-
-Miss. Valley State out.
-Injured/disqualified players out.
-Minutes adjusted (better players getting more and vice versa).
-Home-court advantage adjusted for.
-Lucky efficiency accounted for (somewhat)..i.e. TO% and Defensive Rebound% are worth more than "usual," for example.
Using all of this, I created a bracket cheat sheet. Guaranteed to beat Pomeroy, Sagarin, and the LRMC!*
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/241759/TournamentCheatSheet.xlsx
Enjoy, and use responsibly. Don't gamble with this stuff.
*-OK, not really guaranteed.
The Orange Are Okay.
Before we begin: credit to the numbers here go out to Daniel Myers @DSMok1 and his NCAA statistical plus-minus sheet. I have my own version (which I made about a day before his :), but it didnt' respond to Sports-Reference's reformatting very well.
If we assume that Melo's minutes get replaced by Christmas, and also slightly replaced by James Southerland, we see the following:
Efficiency Margin per 100 (with Melo having high Minutes%): 31.7
Efficiency Margin per 100 (with Melo's minutes replaced by Christmas, then Southerland): 30.4
This is a difference of -1.3 points per 100 possessions, or just -0.82 points per game, in total point margin. So Syracuse moves from a (rough statistical estimate:) #6 team to a #9 team.
Why does this happen?
I will show you.
I am just making some guesses here, but:
-Melo was playing 58% of Cuse's minutes beforehand...he missed a few games. So I bump this up to 74% to compensate/guesstimate.
-Also to compensate, I bump underrated James Southerland's minutes down by 0.1%, and Christmas' minutes down by 16%.
So we then get the following:
Orange are okay! Just probably underrated by impressionable bracketeers.
If we assume that Melo's minutes get replaced by Christmas, and also slightly replaced by James Southerland, we see the following:
Efficiency Margin per 100 (with Melo having high Minutes%): 31.7
Efficiency Margin per 100 (with Melo's minutes replaced by Christmas, then Southerland): 30.4
This is a difference of -1.3 points per 100 possessions, or just -0.82 points per game, in total point margin. So Syracuse moves from a (rough statistical estimate:) #6 team to a #9 team.
Why does this happen?
I will show you.
I am just making some guesses here, but:
-Melo was playing 58% of Cuse's minutes beforehand...he missed a few games. So I bump this up to 74% to compensate/guesstimate.
-Also to compensate, I bump underrated James Southerland's minutes down by 0.1%, and Christmas' minutes down by 16%.
So we then get the following:
Orange are okay! Just probably underrated by impressionable bracketeers.
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