Before we begin: credit to the numbers here go out to Daniel Myers @DSMok1 and his NCAA statistical plus-minus sheet. I have my own version (which I made about a day before his :), but it didnt' respond to Sports-Reference's reformatting very well.
If we assume that Melo's minutes get replaced by Christmas, and also slightly replaced by James Southerland, we see the following:
Efficiency Margin per 100 (with Melo having high Minutes%): 31.7
Efficiency Margin per 100 (with Melo's minutes replaced by Christmas, then Southerland): 30.4
This is a difference of -1.3 points per 100 possessions, or just -0.82 points per game, in total point margin. So Syracuse moves from a (rough statistical estimate:) #6 team to a #9 team.
Why does this happen?
I will show you.
I am just making some guesses here, but:
-Melo was playing 58% of Cuse's minutes beforehand...he missed a few games. So I bump this up to 74% to compensate/guesstimate.
-Also to compensate, I bump underrated James Southerland's minutes down by 0.1%, and Christmas' minutes down by 16%.
So we then get the following:
Orange are okay! Just probably underrated by impressionable bracketeers.
- ► 2013 (12)
- ▼ March (4)
- ► 2011 (53)
- ► 2010 (25)