I've simulated the NCAA tournament 10,000 times with the following specifications
-Miss. Valley State out.
-Injured/disqualified players out.
-Minutes adjusted (better players getting more and vice versa).
-Home-court advantage adjusted for.
-Lucky efficiency accounted for (somewhat)..i.e. TO% and Defensive Rebound% are worth more than "usual," for example.
Using all of this, I created a bracket cheat sheet. Guaranteed to beat Pomeroy, Sagarin, and the LRMC!*
Enjoy, and use responsibly. Don't gamble with this stuff.
*-OK, not really guaranteed.