The Sweet 16 and Beyond

Here are the results of my latest 10,000 simulations of the tournament.

Notable Notes:

Expected number of double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16:   2.5

Odds of all four 1-seeds making it to the Sweet 16:   27%

Odds of La Salle making it to the Sweet 16:   37%               

reg	sd		s16	e8	f4	title game	Champ	exp. Wins
E	1	Indiana	90%	69%	55%	36%	23%	3.74
S	3	Florida	78%	65%	44%	26%	16%	3.28
W	1	Gonzaga	78%	63%	41%	25%	14%	3.20
MW	1	Louisville	67%	52%	34%	20%	10%	2.83
W	2	Ohio St.	73%	51%	28%	15%	7%	2.74
S	4	Michigan	69%	42%	22%	11%	6%	2.50
MW	2	Duke	64%	41%	22%	11%	5%	2.43
E	2	Miami FL	70%	46%	16%	7%	3%	2.42
W	6	Arizona	82%	33%	13%	5%	1%	2.34
MW	3	Michigan St.	68%	31%	14%	6%	2%	2.21
E	4	Syracuse	76%	24%	13%	5%	2%	2.21
S	7	San Diego St.	82%	21%	7%	2%	1%	2.12
S	1	Kansas	58%	27%	12%	5%	2%	2.05
MW	4	St. Louis	65%	20%	9%	3%	1%	1.98
E	3	Marquette	58%	25%	7%	2%	1%	1.92
W	12	Mississippi	63%	18%	7%	2%	1%	1.92
MW	8	Colorado St.	33%	20%	10%	4%	2%	1.69
S	8	North Carolina	42%	17%	6%	2%	1%	1.68
MW	7	Creighton	36%	19%	8%	3%	1%	1.68
E	6	Butler	42%	15%	3%	1%	0%	1.62
S	5	Virginia Commonwealth	31%	13%	4%	1%	0%	1.51
E	7	Illinois	30%	13%	3%	1%	0%	1.47
W	10	Iowa St.	27%	14%	4%	1%	0%	1.47
W	13	La Salle	37%	7%	2%	0%	0%	1.46
MW	12	Oregon	35%	7%	2%	0%	0%	1.45
MW	6	Memphis	32%	9%	2%	1%	0%	1.43
S	11	Minnesota	22%	13%	5%	1%	0%	1.42
W	9	Wichita St.	22%	12%	4%	1%	0%	1.40
E	12	California	24%	3%	1%	0%	0%	1.28
W	14	Harvard	18%	3%	0%	0%	0%	1.21
S	15	Florida Gulf Coast	18%	1%	0%	0%	0%	1.19
E	9	Temple	10%	3%	1%	0%	0%	1.15

Simulated Tournament, Luck-Adjusted Style

Alright...so I did another 10,000 simulations, but I used a combination of my luck-adjustments and Ken Pomeroy's strength of schedule to come up with some decent results. Notably, turnovers (offensive and defensive) are far more important here.

		ro32	s16	e8	f4	title game	Champ	exp. Wins
1	Indiana	100%	85%	68%	58%	38%	26%	3.74
2	Florida	99%	81%	64%	43%	24%	15%	3.26
3	Louisville	100%	71%	59%	39%	23%	12%	3.03
4	Gonzaga	100%	67%	49%	33%	21%	11%	2.81
5	Ohio St.	97%	70%	49%	25%	13%	6%	2.60
6	Michigan	92%	73%	48%	25%	13%	7%	2.58
7	Duke	99%	69%	46%	24%	12%	5%	2.55
8	Miami FL	95%	67%	47%	15%	6%	2%	2.32
9	Syracuse	96%	72%	21%	13%	5%	2%	2.09
10	Kansas	99%	62%	29%	11%	4%	2%	2.07
11	Georgetown	97%	63%	19%	8%	3%	1%	1.90
12	Michigan St.	84%	56%	26%	11%	5%	2%	1.83
13	Wisconsin	73%	56%	24%	13%	7%	3%	1.76
14	New Mexico	88%	51%	19%	6%	2%	1%	1.67
15	Marquette	71%	46%	21%	5%	1%	0%	1.44
16	Arizona	73%	39%	15%	5%	2%	0%	1.34
17	Pittsburgh	73%	28%	17%	10%	5%	2%	1.34
18	St. Louis	75%	43%	11%	4%	1%	0%	1.34
19	North Carolina	75%	33%	12%	4%	1%	1%	1.26
20	Creighton	65%	23%	12%	5%	2%	1%	1.08
21	Oklahoma St.	61%	32%	7%	3%	1%	0%	1.04
22	North Carolina St.	74%	13%	7%	4%	1%	0%	0.99
23	Colorado St.	57%	18%	13%	7%	3%	1%	0.99
24	Virginia Commonwealth	67%	19%	8%	2%	1%	0%	0.97
25	Butler	56%	25%	9%	1%	0%	0%	0.91
26	San Diego St.	57%	23%	5%	1%	0%	0%	0.87
27	Kansas St.	60%	20%	4%	1%	0%	0%	0.86
28	Notre Dame	54%	17%	9%	3%	1%	0%	0.83
29	Nevada Las Vegas	59%	18%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0.81
30	Minnesota	58%	12%	6%	2%	1%	0%	0.79
31	Colorado	51%	16%	8%	1%	0%	0%	0.77
32	St. Mary's	44%	21%	8%	3%	1%	0%	0.76
33	Illinois	49%	15%	7%	1%	0%	0%	0.73
34	Iowa St.	46%	12%	6%	2%	1%	0%	0.67
35	Bucknell	44%	17%	5%	1%	0%	0%	0.67
36	Missouri	43%	11%	6%	3%	1%	0%	0.64
37	Memphis	42%	15%	4%	1%	0%	0%	0.62
38	Oklahoma	43%	14%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0.60
39	Oregon	39%	17%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0.59
40	UCLA	42%	7%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0.54
41	California	41%	10%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.51
42	Cincinnati	35%	8%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0.46
43	Mississippi	27%	15%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0.46
44	Davidson	29%	13%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0.46
45	Akron	33%	6%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.41
46	Belmont	27%	8%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.37
47	Wichita St.	27%	5%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0.35
48	New Mexico St.	25%	8%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.34
49	Villanova	25%	5%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.32
50	Boise St.	23%	6%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.31
51	Temple	26%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.29
52	Valparaiso	16%	5%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.22
53	La Salle	16%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.20
54	Middle Tennessee	14%	4%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.19
55	Harvard	12%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.14
56	South Dakota St.	8%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.10
57	Pacific	5%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.06
58	Montana	4%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.04
59	Florida Gulf Coast	3%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.04
60	Iona	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.04
61	Northwestern St.	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.01
62	Western Kentucky	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.01
63	Albany	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.01
64	Southern	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.00
65	Long Island	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.00
66	North Carolina A&T	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.00
67	Liberty	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.00

Simulated Tournament, LRMC Style

I simulated the NCAA tournament 10,000 times based on the LRMC ratings. Just a pure-point-margin version of Ken Pomeroy's table. Use responsibly!

		ro32	s16	e8	f4	title game	champ	Exp. Wins
1	Indiana	100%	87%	70%	55%	31%	19%	3.62
2	Florida	96%	85%	72%	52%	34%	22%	3.61
3	Gonzaga	100%	78%	63%	48%	31%	18%	3.37
4	Louisville	100%	77%	63%	41%	23%	11%	3.16
5	Kansas	99%	83%	53%	24%	12%	6%	2.77
6	Miami (FL)	95%	73%	54%	21%	8%	3%	2.55
7	Ohio St.	94%	71%	48%	21%	11%	4%	2.50
8	Duke	96%	57%	39%	21%	10%	4%	2.28
9	Michigan	87%	60%	30%	11%	5%	2%	1.95
10	Syracuse	90%	62%	19%	10%	3%	1%	1.85
11	Georgetown	90%	56%	14%	5%	2%	1%	1.67
12	Creighton	77%	37%	23%	11%	5%	2%	1.55
13	Michigan St.	79%	45%	18%	7%	3%	1%	1.52
14	Wisconsin	68%	49%	16%	9%	4%	1%	1.46
15	New Mexico	81%	41%	17%	5%	2%	0%	1.45
16	Saint Louis	73%	38%	10%	3%	1%	0%	1.26
17	Oklahoma St.	64%	38%	11%	4%	1%	0%	1.18
18	Marquette	56%	33%	13%	3%	1%	0%	1.05
19	VCU	65%	27%	9%	3%	1%	0%	1.05
20	UNLV	67%	27%	5%	2%	1%	0%	1.02
21	Arizona	53%	30%	12%	3%	1%	0%	1.01
22	Bucknell	58%	26%	9%	2%	0%	0%	0.95
23	Kansas St.	64%	24%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0.95
24	Pittsburgh	59%	15%	8%	4%	2%	1%	0.89
25	San Diego St.	57%	25%	5%	1%	0%	0%	0.88
26	Iowa St.	58%	18%	9%	2%	1%	0%	0.87
27	N.C. State	68%	11%	5%	2%	1%	0%	0.86
28	Belmont	47%	25%	9%	2%	1%	0%	0.84
29	North Carolina	64%	13%	4%	1%	0%	0%	0.81
30	Davidson	44%	24%	8%	2%	0%	0%	0.78
31	Minnesota	61%	10%	5%	1%	0%	0%	0.78
32	Colorado	53%	15%	7%	1%	0%	0%	0.76
33	Colorado St.	52%	12%	7%	3%	1%	0%	0.75
34	Middle Tenn. St.	35%	20%	8%	3%	1%	0%	0.68
35	Missouri	48%	10%	6%	2%	1%	0%	0.67
36	Memphis	40%	17%	5%	1%	0%	0%	0.64
37	Butler	42%	16%	4%	1%	0%	0%	0.64
38	Illinois	47%	11%	5%	1%	0%	0%	0.63
39	Oklahoma	43%	16%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0.62
40	Notre Dame	42%	10%	4%	1%	0%	0%	0.56
41	Oregon	36%	16%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0.55
42	Wichita St.	41%	7%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0.55
43	Mississippi	32%	17%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0.54
44	Akron	35%	10%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.48
45	UCLA	39%	4%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.46
46	St. Mary's	25%	12%	4%	1%	0%	0%	0.43
47	California	33%	9%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.43
48	Villanova	36%	4%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.42
49	New Mexico St.	27%	8%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.36
50	Temple	32%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.35
51	Cincinnati	23%	5%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.31
52	Boise St.	21%	6%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.28
53	Valparaiso	21%	6%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.28
54	Harvard	19%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.23
55	La Salle	15%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.19
56	South Dakota St.	13%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.17
57	Fla Gulf Coast	10%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.13
58	Montana	10%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.13
59	Iona	6%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.08
60	Pacific	5%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.06
61	Northwestern St.	4%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.05
62	Albany	4%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.04
63	West. Kentucky	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.01
64	Southern	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.00
65	LIU Brooklyn	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.00
66	Liberty	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.00
67	N.C. A&T	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.00

Exactly How Good Is R. Kelly?

YOU SEE ME RUNNIN' THROUGH THAT OPEN DOOOOR.

Before I begin, I must honor the fact that I am a die-hard Carolina fan. I bleed Carolina blue and I hate Duke the instant I wake up each morning. But that cannot change the impact of the beardy white man, R. Kelly.

You might remember last season that I tweeted LeHigh's praises in terms of their ability to possibly beat Duke, *even before the brackets came out*...but my statistics pushed LeHigh's odds way up when we learned that Kelly wouldn't make the LeHigh game...because in my system, he was definitely their best player.

I've heard a lot of claims from all sorts of people on how good R. Kelly is...the boys over at 99.9 The Fan (Raleigh represent...) seem to think that he has made Duke's defense impeccably better. I'm not so sure...but only because Ken Pomeroy mentioned that in a blog post.


By my SPR measure that estimates per-100-possession impact, he is the best player in the ACC (same as Daniel Myers' ASPM. But I am more interested in how much worse their defense got with him out. Let us investigate.

I looked at Duke's expected efficiency differential based on kenpom.com efficiency stats (and home-court advantage), versus how they actually played, and here's the difference we see:

So despite Kelly's immense impact on offense, we can tell that at least Duke's defense looks better with him on the floor. Sixty-four places better.