Memphis, #1?

I have an immense amount of trust in kenpom.com and the LRMC's ranking systems. In head-to-head, I will almost always choose what kenpom.com says.

But is Memphis better than North Carolina? Kenpom.com would like you to believe so. Personally, I'm pretty sure their stats are this way because they've done better than predicted four games in a row (they've won by an average of 12 points/100 possessions better than predicted in these last four games). Unfortunately, I'm afraid Kenpom.com adjusts too much for recency.

But on Scout.com, there is talk of them being ranked higher because of their exceedingly good performance against cupcakes, and "beating no real competition so far." This sounds like what many people felt about Kansas and Davidson about this time last year.....hm......

Anyways, I made a graph showing HOW cupcake-eatey Memphis is. This predicts how well they will do against specific competition (for reference, ~.85 and up is NCAA-atlarge tourney level competition, and .95 and up is top 10 teams).

(clik to enlarge)

I have added their predicted performance againinst Louisville and North Carolina for reference. According to their performances in the past, Kenpom only overpredicts Memphis by about 3.6  points per 100 possessions (which in a game against North Carolina, would translate to about 2.75 points).

And since Memphis is predicted to beat North Carolina by less than 1 point on a Neutral Court(in Kenpom's prediction formula), yes, Memphis is overrated.

But BARELY.