But lets look at the game-makers.
#1: Floor defense- This is Carolina's biggest factor that makes them better or worse than expected. In order to make up for those five points, Carolina would need to hold Duke to around 41.5 eFG% (Field Goal percentage with an extra 50% weight for 3-pointers). Unfortunately, I predict Duke to shoot ~50% eFG (which, I would predict on its own to Duke an extra six points).
#2: Turning the ball over- This is UNC's 2nd biggest x-factor. In order to make up for the five points they are predicted to lose by, they would need to turn the ball over on only 14.5% of the time. Unfortunately again, they are predicted to turn the ball over on ~22.5% of their possessions. This alone would give Duke an extra nine points.
#1: Floor defense: - Duke's defense correlates to changing the score almost as much as Carolina's. With the predicted 48% eFG that Carolina will likely shoot, Duke would be predicted to lose 3 points of their predicted 5 point margin.
#2: Offensive rebounds: - This is their 2nd- highest x-factor. By this alone, they are predicted to lose 2.3 points of their predicted 5 point margin.
Honestly, unless Roy makes some defense and ball-handling changes for Carolina, this game looks favored in Duke's direction. But as we all know, rivalries change the way things work.