For all your fancy-pants statistical needs.

Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN

Some things to note.

I ran about 5,000 simulations of the bracket today in Excel, to find who was most likely to win the championship (the math was a little too complicated to enter in, so I just made a simulation program).

Here is a short list of some important things to know:

And here are some other things to note:
1) North Carolina's bracket is ridiculously difficult (Gonzaga and Arizona State are underseeded, and Oklahoma also poses a big threat.
2) I guess you could say that Connecticut's bracket is ridiculously difficult, because Memphis is the overwhelming favorite to win the NC in general.

Here are my top-10 predicted closest games:

1. Marquette v. Missouri - 2nd round
2. ASU v. Oklahoma - Sweet 16
3. Syracuse v. ASU - 2nd round
4. Kansas v. WVU - 2nd round
5. FSU v. Wisconsin - 1st round
6. Louisville v. WVU - elite 8
7. Tennessee v. Oklahoma St. - 1st round
8. Memphis v. Pittsburgh - championship game
9. Washington v. Purdue - 2nd round
10. Gonzaga v. North Carolina - sweet 16



About Me

I wish my heart were as often large as my hands.