I know I haven't recently been naming any teams, any players, or any specific cases...be patient!
Per David Hess's suggestion, I am now adjusting in an 'error-free' and strength-of-schedule-adjusted environment. To do this, we plug in a team's statistical offensive efficiency (different from the regression model)
St.Offense=(avgFGpoints + avgFTpoints)/avgPoss
This one has a lower error than the model since it includes FT% and raw FG%. The only error involved in the equation comes from rounding , miscalculated possessions, and lack of adjustment for 'team' rebounds. So instead of comparing regressed efficiencies with actual efficiencies, I compare statistical offense minus same with the league average replaced for a certain Factor. However, the factors are labeled differently this time around per the deduced equation.
1) FG% and eFG% (eFG% does not accurately count missed vs. made shots)
2) FT% and FTR% (FTR does not accurately count made free throws)
However, I adjust this for estimated strength of schedule (Adj Factor = Adj. Offense / St. Offense) to more accurately represent how the team plays.
So the end result is:
Impact of factor(s)=Adj.Offense - [St.Offense with factor(s) replaced with average]*Adj.Factor
Here's the results in HTML and editable/searchable Excel format.
- ► 2013 (12)
- ► 2012 (19)
- ► 2011 (53)
- ▼ December (5)