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Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN

Team Impacts, Part Deux

I know I haven't recently been naming any teams, any players, or any specific patient!

Per David Hess's suggestion, I am now adjusting in an 'error-free' and strength-of-schedule-adjusted environment. To do this, we plug in a team's statistical offensive efficiency (different from the regression model)

St.Offense=(avgFGpoints + avgFTpoints)/avgPoss

This one has a lower error than the model since it includes FT% and raw FG%. The only error involved in the equation comes from rounding , miscalculated possessions, and lack of adjustment for 'team' rebounds. So instead of comparing regressed efficiencies with actual efficiencies, I compare statistical offense minus same with the league average replaced for a certain Factor. However, the factors are labeled differently this time around per the deduced equation.

1) FG% and eFG% (eFG% does not accurately count missed vs. made shots)
2) TO%
3) OR%
2) FT% and FTR% (FTR does not accurately count made free throws)

However, I adjust this for estimated strength of schedule (Adj Factor = Adj. Offense / St. Offense) to more accurately represent how the team plays.

So the end result is:
Impact of factor(s)=Adj.Offense - [St.Offense with factor(s) replaced with average]*Adj.Factor

Here's the results in HTML and editable/searchable Excel format.


  1. Quick since using phone: doesn't this have same issue, that any diff between actual efficiency and predicted efficiency (using correct FF values) will show up in full for all four factor-impacts? No Excel now, so I can't see how large this effect is. What are Tulane's impacts? That would be a good test.

  2. Never mind, checked the HTML. Tulane seems pretty close. Is the statistical offense super accurate or something?

  3. I commented on the accuracy of 'statistical' efficiencies in this post :)

    But I used the methodology outlined by your suggestion in this: I don't use actual offense minus factor impact, I use statistical offense minus factor impact (i.e. the same idea as (eFG - league avg eFG)xcoefficient)

    This comment posted from my new CR-48! Eh ohh!

  4. Oops, I see that now. That's what I get for trying to read/post in the middle of the vegetable section of a Chinese market.



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