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Offensive Impacts

EDIT/UPDATE: This old formula has some truth to it, but I have a much more accurate method of describing this, as described in the College Basketball Prospectus 2011-201 book.

There's a very simple stat that estimates how much a player affects their team's overall offensive rating, using Dean Oliver's Individual Offensive Rating (as is posted for all teams' significant players on Kenpom.com)

Formula for offensive impact =
team ORTG - (team ORTG-(%poss*%min*ORTG))/(1-%poss*%min)


(Which estimates the impact a player has on his team's overall Offensive Rating)

Here it is for UNC and Duke:


North

Carolina
player %Min ORtg %Poss offensive

impact
Tyler Zeller 69.4 119.2 23.4 3.93
Reggie Bullock 32.2 106.3 20.7 0.54
Justin Watts 29.4 106.1 14.8 0.34
Leslie McDonald 35.3 97.7 18.7 -0.06
Kendall Marshall 35.9 95.5 19.2 -0.23
Harrison Barnes 69.4 96.8 22.9 -0.34
Justin Knox 37.2 93.9 24 -0.46
Dexter Strickland 62.8 93.7 17 -0.58
John Henson 61.6 94.6 25.5 -0.74
Larry Drew 63.8 76.8 14.6 -2.21
Duke player %Min ORtg %Poss offensive impact
Kyrie Irving 72.2 128.8 25.2 3.12
Andre Dawkins 57.8 144.3 13.2 2.44
Seth Curry 44.1 117.3 18 0.22
Ryan Kelly 35.9 116 13.5 0.07
Tyler Thornton 12.8 88.7 13.3 -0.45
Nolan Smith 76.6 113 27.5 -0.45
Josh Hairston 14.4 90.5 13 -0.46
Kyle Singler 78.8 112.1 21.2 -0.52
Miles Plumlee 36.6 90.3 17.8 -1.69
Mason Plumlee 66.3 101.6 21 -2.11


Now these stats don't exactly compare (a player with a +2 on a bad team is not as good as a player with +2 on a good team) - but this allows you to estimate what current substitutions do for a team, offensively (per 100 possessions).

3 comments:

  1. Perhaps most interesting is: Duke's offense is so good that Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith bring their average down.

    ReplyDelete
  2. The team ORTG you use, is that just the team's overall adjusted offensive efficiency?

    ReplyDelete
  3. The number you should use is Raw offensive efficiency, but I'm using the sum of each player's min%*poss%*ORTG (which is the raw offensive efficiencies of all the players pomeroy tracks) which is roughly the same as the Raw numbers, but doesn't include players with really low minutes.

    ReplyDelete

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