There's a very simple stat that estimates how much a player affects their team's overall offensive rating, using Dean Oliver's Individual Offensive Rating (as is posted for all teams' significant players on Kenpom.com)
Formula for offensive impact =
team ORTG - (team ORTG-(%poss*%min*ORTG))/(1-%poss*%min)
(Which estimates the impact a player has on his team's overall Offensive Rating)
Here it is for UNC and Duke:
North Carolina | player | %Min | ORtg | %Poss | offensive impact | |||
Tyler Zeller | 69.4 | 119.2 | 23.4 | 3.93 | ||||
Reggie Bullock | 32.2 | 106.3 | 20.7 | 0.54 | ||||
Justin Watts | 29.4 | 106.1 | 14.8 | 0.34 | ||||
Leslie McDonald | 35.3 | 97.7 | 18.7 | -0.06 | ||||
Kendall Marshall | 35.9 | 95.5 | 19.2 | -0.23 | ||||
Harrison Barnes | 69.4 | 96.8 | 22.9 | -0.34 | ||||
Justin Knox | 37.2 | 93.9 | 24 | -0.46 | ||||
Dexter Strickland | 62.8 | 93.7 | 17 | -0.58 | ||||
John Henson | 61.6 | 94.6 | 25.5 | -0.74 | ||||
Larry Drew | 63.8 | 76.8 | 14.6 | -2.21 | ||||
Duke | player | %Min | ORtg | %Poss | offensive impact | |||
Kyrie Irving | 72.2 | 128.8 | 25.2 | 3.12 | ||||
Andre Dawkins | 57.8 | 144.3 | 13.2 | 2.44 | ||||
Seth Curry | 44.1 | 117.3 | 18 | 0.22 | ||||
Ryan Kelly | 35.9 | 116 | 13.5 | 0.07 | ||||
Tyler Thornton | 12.8 | 88.7 | 13.3 | -0.45 | ||||
Nolan Smith | 76.6 | 113 | 27.5 | -0.45 | ||||
Josh Hairston | 14.4 | 90.5 | 13 | -0.46 | ||||
Kyle Singler | 78.8 | 112.1 | 21.2 | -0.52 | ||||
Miles Plumlee | 36.6 | 90.3 | 17.8 | -1.69 | ||||
Mason Plumlee | 66.3 | 101.6 | 21 | -2.11 | ||||
Now these stats don't exactly compare (a player with a +2 on a bad team is not as good as a player with +2 on a good team) - but this allows you to estimate what current substitutions do for a team, offensively (per 100 possessions).
Perhaps most interesting is: Duke's offense is so good that Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith bring their average down.
ReplyDeleteThe team ORTG you use, is that just the team's overall adjusted offensive efficiency?
ReplyDeleteThe number you should use is Raw offensive efficiency, but I'm using the sum of each player's min%*poss%*ORTG (which is the raw offensive efficiencies of all the players pomeroy tracks) which is roughly the same as the Raw numbers, but doesn't include players with really low minutes.
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