Recent Tw-happenings

I've been posting all kinds of nonsense to twitter lately. Here are some of the more informative tweets:

1) Lineup stuff:

•  J.E. has released the first public Adjusted Lineup data. 
• The Big 3 (+2 specific players) is the 3rd worst lineup in the NBA (see above), and Miami used this lineup in the playoffs.
• This is confirmed by the fact that said lineup only scores more points than their opponents 40% of the time.

2) Jason Kidd has played the best defense (of Miami & Dallas players) during the playoffs.

3) Nick Collison is not represented well by box-score or advanced box-score statistics.

4) I put together Lebron James' year-by-year Statistical and Actual Regularized +/- numbers since '08.

Most (& Least) Valuable Players in the 2011 Playoffs, Pre-Finals Edition

EDIT: I have also posted the most & least efficient players to Google Docs (as many of the poor performances don't make it into the bottom 25 as such players lost their series).


Here are the top & bottom 25, respectively. (These are not adjusted for opponent quality).

The numbers are based on my statistical plus-minus numbers, which I convert to wins via the "Pythagorean" formula. (Although I give each player the same baseline "team" value here for simplicity).

	Player	Tm	win% added per game	playoff wins added
1	LeBron James	MIA	18.9%	2.84
2	Kevin Durant	OKC	16.5%	2.80
3	Dirk Nowitzki	DAL	14.5%	2.17
4	Dwyane Wade	MIA	12.3%	1.85
5	Jason Kidd	DAL	10.7%	1.60
6	James Harden	OKC	9.2%	1.56
7	Derrick Rose	CHI	9.6%	1.54
8	Chris Bosh	MIA	8.3%	1.25
9	Joakim Noah	CHI	6.8%	1.09
10	Chris Paul	NOH	17.7%	1.06
11	Zach Randolph	MEM	7.7%	1.00
12	Jason Terry	DAL	6.3%	0.95
13	Kevin Garnett	BOS	10.4%	0.94
14	Ray Allen	BOS	10.2%	0.91
15	Luol Deng	CHI	5.0%	0.80
16	Russell Westbrook	OKC	4.2%	0.71
17	Marc Gasol	MEM	4.8%	0.62
18	Nick Collison	OKC	3.3%	0.57
19	Shawn Marion	DAL	3.4%	0.51
20	Paul Pierce	BOS	5.4%	0.48
21	Rajon Rondo	BOS	5.3%	0.48
22	Marcus Camby	POR	7.2%	0.43
23	Dwight Howard	ORL	7.1%	0.43
24	Danny Granger	IND	8.4%	0.42
25	Tyson Chandler	DAL	2.8%	0.42

And the worst:

	Player	Tm	win% added per game	playoff wins added
1	Mike Bibby	MIA	-6.1%	-0.92
2	Kendrick Perkins	OKC	-5.1%	-0.86
3	DeShawn Stevenson	DAL	-3.9%	-0.58
4	Amare Stoudemire	NYK	-12.8%	-0.51
5	Marco Belinelli	NOH	-8.5%	-0.51
6	Sam Young	MEM	-3.6%	-0.47
7	Richard Jefferson	SAS	-7.1%	-0.43
8	J.J. Redick	ORL	-7.1%	-0.42
9	Joe Johnson	ATL	-3.5%	-0.42
10	Glen Davis	BOS	-4.4%	-0.39
11	Joel Anthony	MIA	-2.4%	-0.36
12	Emeka Okafor	NOH	-5.9%	-0.35
13	Jarrett Jack	NOH	-5.6%	-0.34
14	Tyler Hansbrough	IND	-6.7%	-0.34
15	Wilson Chandler	DEN	-6.6%	-0.33
16	Marvin Williams	ATL	-2.7%	-0.33
17	Landry Fields	NYK	-7.6%	-0.30
18	Jason Collins	ATL	-2.4%	-0.28
19	Raymond Felton	DEN	-5.7%	-0.28
20	Willie Green	NOH	-4.6%	-0.28
21	Arron Afflalo	DEN	-9.2%	-0.28
22	Lamar Odom	LAL	-2.7%	-0.27
23	J.R. Smith	DEN	-5.5%	-0.27
24	Bill Walker	NYK	-6.5%	-0.26
25	Antonio McDyess	SAS	-4.1%	-0.25

NBA PLAYOFF PLAYER RATINGS as of 5/24

Earlier today, I made a prediction formula (regression) that predicts a player's Adjusted Plus-Minus based only on the advanced stats which Basketball-Reference spits out*

The following is their estimated Adjusted Plus-Minus, their total (pace-adjusted) personal point differential, and their total value to their team per 100 possessions (eRAPM * ~Min%).

Player	Tm	~poss. played	eRAPM	total value	value per 100
LeBron James	MIA	1183	6.9	82.1	6.2
Kevin Durant	OKC	1308	6.2	81.6	5.4
Dwyane Wade	MIA	1071	5.7	61.5	4.6
Dirk Nowitzki	DAL	1048	5.7	59.7	4.5
Derrick Rose	CHI	1170	4.4	51.9	3.7
Jason Kidd	DAL	937	4.4	41.7	3.2
James Harden	OKC	967	3.9	38.2	2.5
Chris Bosh	MIA	1070	3.1	33.5	2.5
Jason Terry	DAL	883	3.8	33.4	2.5
Chris Paul	NOH	482	6.7	32.1	5.7
Zach Randolph	MEM	992	2.9	29.1	2.4
Kevin Garnett	BOS	632	4.4	27.5	3.2
Joakim Noah	CHI	967	2.8	27.5	1.9
Ray Allen	BOS	696	3.9	26.8	3.2
Luol Deng	CHI	1255	1.9	23.8	1.7
Marc Gasol	MEM	1000	1.8	18.1	1.5
Russell Westbrook	OKC	1145	1.4	15.7	1.0
Paul Pierce	BOS	661	2.1	14.0	1.6
Tyson Chandler	DAL	833	1.7	13.9	1.0
Rajon Rondo	BOS	665	2.1	13.8	1.6
Marcus Camby	POR	322	3.9	12.6	2.2
Dwight Howard	ORL	497	2.5	12.5	2.2
Danny Granger	IND	353	3.5	12.2	2.6
Jameer Nelson	ORL	416	2.9	11.9	2.1
Nick Collison	OKC	723	1.6	11.7	0.8
Manu Ginobili	SAS	335	3.3	11.2	2.4
Gerald Wallace	POR	436	2.4	10.6	1.9
Kobe Bryant	LAL	682	1.5	10.6	1.1
Shawn Marion	DAL	840	1.1	9.2	0.7
Serge Ibaka	OKC	917	1.0	9.1	0.6
LaMarcus Aldridge	POR	497	1.8	9.0	1.6
Ronnie Brewer	CHI	451	1.8	8.0	0.6
Andrew Bynum	LAL	617	1.2	7.6	0.8
Ron Artest	LAL	553	1.2	6.8	0.8
Taj Gibson	CHI	501	1.3	6.6	0.5
Carlos Boozer	CHI	927	0.7	6.6	0.5
Eric Maynor	OKC	383	1.7	6.5	0.4
Ty Lawson	DEN	322	1.8	5.9	1.2
Kirk Hinrich	ATL	333	1.8	5.9	1.0
Jose Barea	DAL	463	1.2	5.7	0.4
Jrue Holiday	PHI	362	1.5	5.6	1.2
Carmelo Anthony	NYK	299	1.6	4.8	1.3
Jeff Teague	ATL	459	1.0	4.6	0.6
Greivis Vasquez	MEM	274	1.7	4.5	0.4
Nene Hilario	DEN	312	1.3	4.2	0.9
Pau Gasol	LAL	690	0.6	4.1	0.4
Trevor Ariza	NOH	464	0.8	3.7	0.6
Andre Miller	POR	374	0.9	3.2	0.6
Brandon Roy	POR	266	1.0	2.5	0.4
James Jones	MIA	524	0.5	2.5	0.2
Elton Brand	PHI	357	0.7	2.5	0.5
Derek Fisher	LAL	626	0.4	2.3	0.2
George Hill	SAS	364	0.5	1.9	0.3
Thabo Sefolosha	OKC	636	0.3	1.8	0.1
Ryan Anderson	ORL	283	0.5	1.5	0.3
Josh Smith	ATL	844	0.1	0.7	0.1
Peja Stojakovic	DAL	607	0.1	0.5	0.0
Al Horford	ATL	902	0.0	0.3	0.0
Matt Barnes	LAL	252	0.1	0.2	0.0
Darrell Arthur	MEM	387	0.0	0.2	0.0
Brendan Haywood	DAL	451	0.0	0.1	0.0
Jermaine O'Neal	BOS	380	0.0	0.1	0.0
Jamal Crawford	ATL	690	-0.1	-0.4	0.0
Matt Bonner	SAS	237	-0.2	-0.5	-0.1
Jason Richardson	ORL	295	-0.2	-0.7	-0.1
Shawne Williams	NYK	195	-0.5	-0.9	-0.2
Shannon Brown	LAL	320	-0.4	-1.3	-0.1
Mario Chalmers	MIA	613	-0.3	-1.6	-0.1
Keith Bogans	CHI	553	-0.3	-1.7	-0.1
Steve Blake	LAL	279	-0.8	-2.2	-0.3
Andre Iguodala	PHI	351	-0.6	-2.2	-0.5
C.J. Watson	CHI	251	-0.9	-2.3	-0.2
O.J. Mayo	MEM	698	-0.4	-2.7	-0.2
Louis Williams	PHI	251	-1.2	-3.1	-0.7
Tony Parker	SAS	426	-0.7	-3.1	-0.6
Brandon Bass	ORL	268	-1.2	-3.3	-0.6
Kenyon Martin	DEN	285	-1.2	-3.3	-0.7
Jodie Meeks	PHI	241	-1.4	-3.3	-0.7
Paul George	IND	256	-1.5	-3.8	-0.8
Darren Collison	IND	281	-1.5	-4.3	-0.9
Daequan Cook	OKC	368	-1.2	-4.4	-0.3
Nazr Mohammed	OKC	285	-1.6	-4.5	-0.3
Nicolas Batum	POR	291	-1.5	-4.5	-0.8
Tony Allen	MEM	674	-0.7	-4.6	-0.4
Carl Landry	NOH	410	-1.2	-4.8	-0.8
Gary Neal	SAS	214	-2.3	-4.8	-0.9
Toney Douglas	NYK	216	-2.3	-4.9	-1.3
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	MIA	200	-2.5	-5.0	-0.6
Danilo Gallinari	DEN	285	-1.8	-5.1	-1.1
Wesley Matthews	POR	389	-1.4	-5.6	-1.0
Mike Conley	MEM	977	-0.6	-5.8	-0.5
Tim Duncan	SAS	409	-1.4	-5.8	-1.0
Shane Battier	MEM	653	-0.9	-5.8	-0.5
Omer Asik	CHI	285	-2.1	-5.9	-0.4
Zaza Pachulia	ATL	376	-1.6	-6.0	-0.6
Thaddeus Young	PHI	245	-2.5	-6.0	-1.3
Kyle Korver	CHI	507	-1.2	-6.1	-0.4
Delonte West	BOS	328	-2.0	-6.4	-0.8
Hedo Turkoglu	ORL	403	-1.6	-6.6	-1.2
Roy Hibbert	IND	254	-2.6	-6.6	-1.4
Jeff Green	BOS	333	-2.1	-7.1	-0.8
Antonio McDyess	SAS	279	-2.6	-7.2	-1.3
Lamar Odom	LAL	551	-1.4	-7.9	-0.8
Raymond Felton	DEN	293	-2.8	-8.2	-1.7
Jason Collins	ATL	304	-2.7	-8.2	-0.7
Marvin Williams	ATL	416	-2.3	-9.5	-0.8
Wilson Chandler	DEN	222	-4.3	-9.5	-2.0
Jarrett Jack	NOH	214	-4.6	-9.8	-1.7
Tyler Hansbrough	IND	316	-3.1	-9.8	-2.1
Emeka Okafor	NOH	362	-2.8	-10.3	-1.8
Glen Davis	BOS	368	-3.1	-11.4	-1.3
Joe Johnson	ATL	958	-1.3	-12.0	-1.1
Joel Anthony	MIA	817	-1.5	-12.1	-0.9
J.J. Redick	ORL	231	-5.3	-12.3	-2.2
Richard Jefferson	SAS	339	-3.7	-12.4	-2.2
Sam Young	MEM	493	-2.7	-13.5	-1.1
DeShawn Stevenson	DAL	395	-3.7	-14.6	-1.1
Marco Belinelli	NOH	333	-4.5	-14.8	-2.6
Amare Stoudemire	NYK	258	-5.9	-15.2	-4.0
Mike Bibby	MIA	601	-4.0	-24.2	-1.8
Kendrick Perkins	OKC	869	-2.9	-25.3	-1.7

I also found the relative team ratings during the playoffs according to this system:

Tm	Est. Efficiency Margin
DAL	11.31
MIA	10.15
OKC	8.59
CHI	7.65
BOS	6.74
POR	4.92
LAL	2.18
MEM	1.59
ORL	0.51
NOH	-0.70
PHI	-1.38
ATL	-1.49
IND	-2.63
SAS	-3.25
DEN	-3.40
NYK	-4.29

MATH:

 *I used Basketball Reference's '07-'11 career advanced stats and Engalmann's Regularized three-year offensive and defensive +/-, for all players with >1000 minutes played. I made a regression (with no intercept), gradually weaning out variables with a P-value of >.05, and the following is the result:

(Offense has an R^2 of ~.6, Defense of ~.4)

coefficient	value
TRB%	3.282424852
ORB%	-1.704972232
DRB%	-1.550130287
STL%	1.12274153
ORTGxUsg	1.062903376
USG%	-0.945778193
TS% out of 100	-0.361792241
BLK%	0.247314245
eFG% out of 100	0.135585541
ORTG	0.085543135
TOV%	0.078829447
DRTG	-0.036343776

Win Shares per 48 Minutes versus Easy Player Ratings

Since Win-Shares per 48 minutes and my Easy Player Ratings use the exact same data (although EPR also adds minutes per game) to calculate player "efficiency," I thought I would compare the two.

I took all NBA players from in the 3-point era who played more than 1000 minutes and looked at their WS/48 and EPR values. From there, I just had a look at the top 100 in Win-Shares per 48.

Most notably, David Robinson (3.36 EPR) beats out Michael Jordan (3.27 EPR), barely -- this is somewhat intuitive, as Jordan's old years in Washington significantly decrease his "average," likely from his poor defensive numbers.




Now here are the 10 players in the top 100 who WS/48 comparatively likes the most:

	Player	From	To	USG%	ORtg	Points Prod Per 100	DRtg	MP		WS/48	(rk)		EPR	(rk)	difference
1	Leon Powe	2007	2011	20.4	115	23.46	103	13.9		0.174	33		1.17	88	-55
2	Steve Mix	1980	1983	21.7	113	24.521	103	17.2		0.168	39		1.18	87	-48
3	Marcin Gortat	2008	2011	15.3	116	17.748	102	17.2		0.162	46		1.17	89	-43
4	Steve Nash	1997	2011	21.2	119	25.228	110	31.3		0.168	39		1.22	80	-41
5	Kevin Love	2009	2011	22.1	117	25.857	109	29.8		0.163	45		1.19	86	-41
6	Mark Price	1987	1998	22.8	116	26.448	109	29.9		0.158	52		1.14	93	-41
7	Ryan Anderson	2009	2011	20.7	115	23.805	105	18.9		0.157	53		1.08	94	-41
8	Amir Johnson	2006	2011	14.3	122	17.446	107	17.8		0.154	61		0.80	99	-38
9	Carl Landry	2008	2011	20.5	117	23.985	108	24.9		0.155	60		1.04	95	-35
10	Todd MacCulloch	2000	2003	17.7	113	20.001	100	15.4		0.166	43		1.32	74	-31

Unfortunately, Steve Nash's lower usage and nearly non-existent defensive stats underrate him in EPR. Personally, I think Nash is in the top 5 offensive players of all time, which his usage and Offensive Rating do not capture well. Not sure where the rest of these guys fall - it could be because of low minutes-played, but that term is not worth all that much.


Here is a look at the players in the top 100 who the EPR system likes more than WS/48:

	Player	From	To	USG%	ORtg	Points Prod Per 100	DRtg	MP		WS/48	(rk)		EPR	(rk)	difference
1	Patrick Ewing*	1986	2002	28	106	29.68	99	34.3		0.15	77		1.83	28	49
2	Jack Sikma	1980	1991	20.9	110	22.99	102	33.7		0.149	82		1.58	44	38
3	Scottie Pippen*	1988	2004	22.5	108	24.3	102	34.9		0.146	94		1.49	57	37
4	Eddie Jones	1995	2008	20.1	111	22.311	103	34.4		0.147	89		1.52	53	36
5	Dennis Rodman*	1987	2000	11.4	114	12.996	100	31.7		0.15	77		1.59	42	35
6	Horace Grant	1988	2004	15.2	117	17.784	104	33.2		0.147	89		1.51	54	35
7	Dikembe Mutombo	1992	2009	15	111	16.65	99	30.8		0.153	69		1.72	35	34
8	Jeff Ruland	1982	1993	22.3	109	24.307	102	33.4		0.149	82		1.53	51	31
9	Dominique Wilkins*	1983	1999	30.3	112	33.936	108	35.5		0.148	85		1.45	60	25
10	Peja Stojakovic	1999	2011	21.5	114	24.51	106	33.5		0.147	89		1.41	66	23

EPR likes moderately high usage at average offensive rating, which explains Ewing near the top. In my regression, Ewing's efficiency + usage is above the threshold of having negative (relative) impact. Not quite sure what to make of the rest.



At any rate, here is the entire list of the top 100 players by WS/48

Player	From	To	USG%	ORtg	Points Prod Per 100	DRtg	MP		WS/48	(rk)		EPR	(rk)
David Robinson*	1990	2003	26.2	116	30.39	96	34.7		0.25	1		3.36	1
Michael Jordan*	1985	2003	33.3	118	39.29	103	38.3		0.25	1		3.27	2
LeBron James	2004	2011	31.8	115	36.57	102	40.1		0.227	4		2.94	3
Tim Duncan	1998	2011	27.8	110	30.58	95	35.8		0.216	6		2.92	4
Larry Bird*	1980	1992	26.5	115	30.48	101	38.4		0.203	13		2.69	5
Chris Paul	2006	2011	23.8	121	28.80	104	37.1		0.233	3		2.67	6
Dirk Nowitzki	1999	2011	27	117	31.59	103	36.5		0.214	8		2.61	7
Karl Malone*	1986	2004	29.4	113	33.22	101	37.2		0.205	12		2.58	8
Magic Johnson*	1980	1996	22.3	121	26.98	104	36.7		0.225	5		2.53	9
Manu Ginobili	2003	2011	25.1	115	28.87	99	28.1		0.214	8		2.52	10
Shaquille O'Neal	1993	2011	29.5	113	33.34	101	34.7		0.208	11		2.49	11
Yao Ming	2003	2011	26.8	112	30.02	99	32.5		0.2	14		2.43	12
Dwight Howard	2005	2011	23.2	111	25.75	98	36		0.188	19		2.42	13
Charles Barkley*	1985	2000	24.8	119	29.51	105	36.7		0.216	6		2.39	14
Kevin Garnett	1996	2011	25.2	111	27.97	99	36.7		0.191	18		2.39	15
Hakeem Olajuwon*	1985	2002	27.1	108	29.27	98	35.7		0.177	30		2.23	16
Arvydas Sabonis*	1996	2003	22.9	112	25.65	97	24.2		0.2	14		2.23	17
Julius Erving*	1980	1987	26.9	112	30.13	102	34.1		0.182	22		2.08	18
Dwyane Wade	2004	2011	32.5	111	36.08	104	37.6		0.193	16		2.06	19
John Stockton*	1985	2003	18.9	121	22.87	104	31.8		0.209	10		2.05	20
Player	From	To	USG%	ORtg	Points Prod Per 100	DRtg	MP		WS/48	(rk)		EPR	(rk)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*	1980	1989	24.2	116	28.07	104	32.6		0.182	22		2.03	21
Pau Gasol	2002	2011	23.6	115	27.14	104	35.9		0.179	26		2.00	22
Kobe Bryant	1997	2011	31.5	112	35.28	105	36.4		0.187	20		1.97	23
Adrian Dantley*	1980	1991	26.8	120	32.16	110	36		0.192	17		1.95	24
Shawn Marion	2000	2011	21.1	111	23.42	101	36.3		0.162	46		1.91	25
Paul Pierce	1999	2011	27.8	110	30.58	103	37		0.167	41		1.84	26
Sidney Moncrief	1980	1991	20.6	119	24.51	105	30.2		0.187	20		1.83	27
Patrick Ewing*	1986	2002	28	106	29.68	99	34.3		0.15	77		1.83	28
Clyde Drexler*	1984	1998	25.4	114	28.96	105	34.6		0.173	34		1.82	29
Moses Malone*	1980	1995	26	114	29.64	105	33.5		0.179	26		1.82	30
Larry Nance	1982	1994	20.6	116	23.90	104	33.4		0.171	36		1.81	31
Amare Stoudemire	2003	2011	26.9	114	30.67	106	34.6		0.177	30		1.77	32
Kevin McHale*	1981	1993	22.4	118	26.43	106	31		0.18	24		1.77	33
Alonzo Mourning	1993	2008	25.6	108	27.65	100	31		0.166	43		1.74	34
Dikembe Mutombo	1992	2009	15	111	16.65	99	30.8		0.153	69		1.72	35
Brad Daugherty	1987	1994	22.2	114	25.31	105	36.5		0.156	56		1.70	36
Reggie Miller	1988	2005	21.6	121	26.14	109	34.3		0.176	32		1.68	37
Elton Brand	2000	2011	24	111	26.64	104	36.9		0.156	56		1.64	38
Chauncey Billups	1998	2011	22	118	25.96	107	32.3		0.179	26		1.64	39
Carlos Boozer	2003	2011	23.9	111	26.53	103	32.6		0.159	51		1.63	40
Player	From	To	USG%	ORtg	Points Prod Per 100	DRtg	MP		WS/48	(rk)		EPR	(rk)
Chris Bosh	2004	2011	24.8	113	28.02	106	36.9		0.16	49		1.62	41
Dennis Rodman*	1987	2000	11.4	114	13.00	100	31.7		0.15	77		1.59	42
Greg Oden	2009	2010	19.7	117	23.05	103	22.1		0.18	24		1.58	43
Jack Sikma	1980	1991	20.9	110	22.99	102	33.7		0.149	82		1.58	44
Andrew Bynum	2006	2011	18.5	117	21.65	103	24.3		0.172	35		1.57	45
Bob Lanier*	1980	1984	21	112	23.52	102	28.1		0.161	48		1.57	46
Robert Parish*	1980	1997	21.2	113	23.96	103	29		0.157	53		1.56	47
Andrei Kirilenko	2002	2011	18.9	112	21.17	102	30.8		0.156	56		1.56	48
Artis Gilmore*	1980	1988	18.4	119	21.90	106	30.9		0.167	41		1.54	49
Bobby Jones	1980	1986	17.1	116	19.84	102	24.2		0.17	37		1.54	50
Jeff Ruland	1982	1993	22.3	109	24.31	102	33.4		0.149	82		1.53	51
Kevin Durant	2008	2011	29.8	111	33.08	107	38		0.154	61		1.53	52
Eddie Jones	1995	2008	20.1	111	22.31	103	34.4		0.147	89		1.52	53
Horace Grant	1988	2004	15.2	117	17.78	104	33.2		0.147	89		1.51	54
Dan Issel*	1980	1985	24.9	118	29.38	109	29.9		0.17	37		1.50	55
Kermit Washington	1980	1988	15.9	114	18.13	102	29.3		0.154	61		1.50	56
Scottie Pippen*	1988	2004	22.5	108	24.30	102	34.9		0.146	94		1.49	57
Al Horford	2008	2011	17.5	116	20.30	105	33.8		0.154	61		1.48	58
Kevin Johnson	1988	2000	22.6	118	26.67	109	34.1		0.178	29		1.47	59
Dominique Wilkins*	1983	1999	30.3	112	33.94	108	35.5		0.148	85		1.45	60
Player	From	To	USG%	ORtg	Points Prod Per 100	DRtg	MP		WS/48	(rk)		EPR	(rk)
Bill Laimbeer	1981	1994	16.9	115	19.44	104	31.8		0.149	82		1.43	61
Ray Allen	1997	2011	24.5	114	27.93	108	37		0.154	61		1.43	62
Joakim Noah	2008	2011	15.4	115	17.71	102	26.2		0.16	49		1.42	63
Nene Hilario	2003	2011	18.1	113	20.45	103	29.6		0.152	72		1.42	64
Blake Griffin	2011	2011	27.3	111	30.30	107	38		0.152	72		1.41	65
Peja Stojakovic	1999	2011	21.5	114	24.51	106	33.5		0.147	89		1.41	66
Tracy McGrady	1998	2011	29.6	108	31.97	104	33.7		0.154	61		1.40	67
Shawn Kemp	1990	2003	25	106	26.50	100	27.9		0.147	89		1.39	68
Brandon Roy	2007	2011	25.4	116	29.46	110	35.6		0.157	53		1.37	69
Marques Johnson	1980	1990	24	112	26.88	106	34		0.15	77		1.37	70
Player	From	To	USG%	ORtg	Points Prod Per 100	DRtg	MP		WS/48	(rk)		EPR	(rk)
Detlef Schrempf	1986	2001	20.3	117	23.75	107	29.6		0.156	56		1.33	71
Paul Millsap	2007	2011	19.7	114	22.46	104	26		0.151	74		1.32	72
Vince Carter	1999	2011	29	109	31.61	106	36.4		0.146	94		1.32	73
Todd MacCulloch	2000	2003	17.7	113	20.00	100	15.4		0.166	43		1.32	74
Mehmet Okur	2003	2011	21.6	113	24.41	105	29.1		0.146	94		1.31	75
Scot Pollard	1998	2008	12.5	114	14.25	99	16.5		0.153	69		1.27	76
Cedric Maxwell	1980	1988	16.9	118	19.94	106	28.7		0.154	61		1.27	77
Anderson Varejao	2005	2011	13.7	115	15.76	102	24.7		0.151	74		1.26	78
Gary Payton	1991	2007	22.5	111	24.98	106	35.3		0.148	85		1.24	79
Steve Nash	1997	2011	21.2	119	25.23	110	31.3		0.168	39		1.22	80
Player	From	To	USG%	ORtg	Points Prod Per 100	DRtg	MP		WS/48	(rk)		EPR	(rk)
Jeff Hornacek	1987	2000	19.7	117	23.05	108	31.5		0.154	61		1.21	81
Brad Miller	1999	2011	18.4	114	20.98	105	28.6		0.15	77		1.20	82
Serge Ibaka	2010	2011	15.9	115	18.29	103	22.8		0.153	69		1.20	83
Maurice Cheeks	1980	1993	15.4	117	18.02	106	31.8		0.146	94		1.19	84
Calvin Natt	1980	1990	21.3	114	24.28	107	31.4		0.146	94		1.19	85
Kevin Love	2009	2011	22.1	117	25.86	109	29.8		0.163	45		1.19	86
Steve Mix	1980	1983	21.7	113	24.52	103	17.2		0.168	39		1.18	87
Leon Powe	2007	2011	20.4	115	23.46	103	13.9		0.174	33		1.17	88
Marcin Gortat	2008	2011	15.3	116	17.75	102	17.2		0.162	46		1.17	89
Terrell Brandon	1992	2002	23.9	110	26.29	105	29.8		0.147	89		1.15	90
David Lee	2006	2011	19	117	22.23	108	31		0.148	85		1.14	91
Kevin Martin	2005	2011	24.7	117	28.90	111	31.2		0.151	74		1.14	92
Mark Price	1987	1998	22.8	116	26.45	109	29.9		0.158	52		1.14	93
Ryan Anderson	2009	2011	20.7	115	23.81	105	18.9		0.157	53		1.08	94
Carl Landry	2008	2011	20.5	117	23.99	108	24.9		0.155	60		1.04	95
Terry Porter	1986	2002	19.1	115	21.97	107	27.8		0.15	77		1.01	96
Ricky Pierce	1983	1998	25	116	29.00	110	24.4		0.146	94		0.96	97
Kiki Vandeweghe	1981	1993	23.6	119	28.08	113	30.3		0.148	85		0.96	98
Amir Johnson	2006	2011	14.3	122	17.45	107	17.8		0.154	61		0.80	99
Ty Lawson	2010	2011	19	118	22.42	110	23.6		0.146	94		0.69	100

Easy Player Rating System!

As a basketball statistician, I am thoroughly obsessed with Jeremias Engalmann's Adjusted Plus-Minus numbers.
As a basketball fan, I realize that most people are hesitant to even attempt to understand what's going on in Adjusted Plus-Minus.

To combine the two worlds, I have looked at the latest four individual seasons of data, and I have compared advanced basketball stats with the Adjusted Plus-Minus numbers. By using four advanced stats (easily found at Basketball-Reference.com: per game, per season, or per-career), we can estimate how much a player impacts their team, per possession.

Here are the four statistics:

-Minutes per Game
-Offensive Rating (ORTG)
-Usage% (Possessions used)
-Defensive Rating (DRTG)

I made a regression of values to predict the Adjusted Plus-Minus, and averaged each season from 2008-2011 (with players having 500 minutes or more). The result is the following:

=(0.035 x Minutes/Game) + (0.43 x (Usage%/100) x Offensive Rating) - (0.14 x Defensive Rating) - (0.44 x Usage%) + 13.8

For Dwight Howard, this season, we get:
37.6 Minutes per game
27.2% Usage
113 Offensive Rating
94 Defensive Rating

=(0.035 x 37.6) + (0.43 x 0.272 x 113) - (0.14 x 94) - (0.44 x 27.2) + 13.8
=1.316 + 13.21648 - 13.16 - 11.968 + 13.8
=3.2        --- (although it's 3.45 if you use the more precise numbers below)

[For stat-heads, the actual coefficients are:  Min/G: 0.034853, ORTG*Usg/100: 0.434141, DRTG: -0.13995, USG%: -0.43613]


So for the 2010-2011 regular season, I have calculated the predicted "Net Efficiency." This is simply our estimate of how much a player adds to his team's point differential per 100 possessions of offense & 100 possessions of defense. Also, I have calculated the estimated "Wins Added" by multiplying their efficiency by the % of minutes they played, and converting that number into a wins estimate (how many wins an average team would have gained from their performance).

Here are the results for 2010-2011 (Regular Season - players with 500 or more minutes).