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Win Shares per 48 Minutes versus Easy Player Ratings


Since Win-Shares per 48 minutes and my Easy Player Ratings use the exact same data (although EPR also adds minutes per game) to calculate player "efficiency," I thought I would compare the two.

I took all NBA players from in the 3-point era who played more than 1000 minutes and looked at their WS/48 and EPR values. From there, I just had a look at the top 100 in Win-Shares per 48.

Most notably, David Robinson (3.36 EPR) beats out Michael Jordan (3.27 EPR), barely -- this is somewhat intuitive, as Jordan's old years in Washington significantly decrease his "average," likely from his poor defensive numbers.




Now here are the 10 players in the top 100 who WS/48 comparatively likes the most:
PlayerFromToUSG%ORtgPoints Prod Per 100DRtgMPWS/48(rk)EPR(rk)difference
1Leon Powe2007201120.411523.4610313.90.174331.1788-55
2Steve Mix1980198321.711324.52110317.20.168391.1887-48
3Marcin Gortat2008201115.311617.74810217.20.162461.1789-43
4Steve Nash1997201121.211925.22811031.30.168391.2280-41
5Kevin Love2009201122.111725.85710929.80.163451.1986-41
6Mark Price1987199822.811626.44810929.90.158521.1493-41
7Ryan Anderson2009201120.711523.80510518.90.157531.0894-41
8Amir Johnson2006201114.312217.44610717.80.154610.8099-38
9Carl Landry2008201120.511723.98510824.90.155601.0495-35
10Todd MacCulloch2000200317.711320.00110015.40.166431.3274-31

Unfortunately, Steve Nash's lower usage and nearly non-existent defensive stats underrate him in EPR. Personally, I think Nash is in the top 5 offensive players of all time, which his usage and Offensive Rating do not capture well. Not sure where the rest of these guys fall - it could be because of low minutes-played, but that term is not worth all that much.


Here is a look at the players in the top 100 who the EPR system likes more than WS/48:



PlayerFromToUSG%ORtgPoints Prod Per 100DRtgMPWS/48(rk)EPR(rk)difference
1Patrick Ewing*198620022810629.689934.30.15771.832849
2Jack Sikma1980199120.911022.9910233.70.149821.584438
3Scottie Pippen*1988200422.510824.310234.90.146941.495737
4Eddie Jones1995200820.111122.31110334.40.147891.525336
5Dennis Rodman*1987200011.411412.99610031.70.15771.594235
6Horace Grant1988200415.211717.78410433.20.147891.515435
7Dikembe Mutombo199220091511116.659930.80.153691.723534
8Jeff Ruland1982199322.310924.30710233.40.149821.535131
9Dominique Wilkins*1983199930.311233.93610835.50.148851.456025
10Peja Stojakovic1999201121.511424.5110633.50.147891.416623

EPR likes moderately high usage at average offensive rating, which explains Ewing near the top. In my regression, Ewing's efficiency + usage is above the threshold of having negative (relative) impact. Not quite sure what to make of the rest.



At any rate, here is the entire list of the top 100 players by WS/48

PlayerFromToUSG%ORtgPoints Prod Per 100DRtgMPWS/48(rk)EPR(rk)
David Robinson*1990200326.211630.399634.7
0.251
3.361
Michael Jordan*1985200333.311839.2910338.3
0.251
3.272
LeBron James2004201131.811536.5710240.1
0.2274
2.943
Tim Duncan1998201127.811030.589535.8
0.2166
2.924
Larry Bird*1980199226.511530.4810138.4
0.20313
2.695
Chris Paul2006201123.812128.8010437.1
0.2333
2.676
Dirk Nowitzki199920112711731.5910336.5
0.2148
2.617
Karl Malone*1986200429.411333.2210137.2
0.20512
2.588
Magic Johnson*1980199622.312126.9810436.7
0.2255
2.539
Manu Ginobili2003201125.111528.879928.1
0.2148
2.5210
Shaquille O'Neal1993201129.511333.3410134.7
0.20811
2.4911
Yao Ming2003201126.811230.029932.5
0.214
2.4312
Dwight Howard2005201123.211125.759836
0.18819
2.4213
Charles Barkley*1985200024.811929.5110536.7
0.2166
2.3914
Kevin Garnett1996201125.211127.979936.7
0.19118
2.3915
Hakeem Olajuwon*1985200227.110829.279835.7
0.17730
2.2316
Arvydas Sabonis*1996200322.911225.659724.2
0.214
2.2317
Julius Erving*1980198726.911230.1310234.1
0.18222
2.0818
Dwyane Wade2004201132.511136.0810437.6
0.19316
2.0619
John Stockton*1985200318.912122.8710431.8
0.20910
2.0520
PlayerFromToUSG%ORtgPoints Prod Per 100DRtgMP
WS/48(rk)
EPR(rk)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*1980198924.211628.0710432.6
0.18222
2.0321
Pau Gasol2002201123.611527.1410435.9
0.17926
2.0022
Kobe Bryant1997201131.511235.2810536.4
0.18720
1.9723
Adrian Dantley*1980199126.812032.1611036
0.19217
1.9524
Shawn Marion2000201121.111123.4210136.3
0.16246
1.9125
Paul Pierce1999201127.811030.5810337
0.16741
1.8426
Sidney Moncrief1980199120.611924.5110530.2
0.18720
1.8327
Patrick Ewing*198620022810629.689934.3
0.1577
1.8328
Clyde Drexler*1984199825.411428.9610534.6
0.17334
1.8229
Moses Malone*198019952611429.6410533.5
0.17926
1.8230
Larry Nance1982199420.611623.9010433.4
0.17136
1.8131
Amare Stoudemire2003201126.911430.6710634.6
0.17730
1.7732
Kevin McHale*1981199322.411826.4310631
0.1824
1.7733
Alonzo Mourning1993200825.610827.6510031
0.16643
1.7434
Dikembe Mutombo199220091511116.659930.8
0.15369
1.7235
Brad Daugherty1987199422.211425.3110536.5
0.15656
1.7036
Reggie Miller1988200521.612126.1410934.3
0.17632
1.6837
Elton Brand200020112411126.6410436.9
0.15656
1.6438
Chauncey Billups199820112211825.9610732.3
0.17926
1.6439
Carlos Boozer2003201123.911126.5310332.6
0.15951
1.6340
PlayerFromToUSG%ORtgPoints Prod Per 100DRtgMP
WS/48(rk)
EPR(rk)
Chris Bosh2004201124.811328.0210636.9
0.1649
1.6241
Dennis Rodman*1987200011.411413.0010031.7
0.1577
1.5942
Greg Oden2009201019.711723.0510322.1
0.1824
1.5843
Jack Sikma1980199120.911022.9910233.7
0.14982
1.5844
Andrew Bynum2006201118.511721.6510324.3
0.17235
1.5745
Bob Lanier*198019842111223.5210228.1
0.16148
1.5746
Robert Parish*1980199721.211323.9610329
0.15753
1.5647
Andrei Kirilenko2002201118.911221.1710230.8
0.15656
1.5648
Artis Gilmore*1980198818.411921.9010630.9
0.16741
1.5449
Bobby Jones1980198617.111619.8410224.2
0.1737
1.5450
Jeff Ruland1982199322.310924.3110233.4
0.14982
1.5351
Kevin Durant2008201129.811133.0810738
0.15461
1.5352
Eddie Jones1995200820.111122.3110334.4
0.14789
1.5253
Horace Grant1988200415.211717.7810433.2
0.14789
1.5154
Dan Issel*1980198524.911829.3810929.9
0.1737
1.5055
Kermit Washington1980198815.911418.1310229.3
0.15461
1.5056
Scottie Pippen*1988200422.510824.3010234.9
0.14694
1.4957
Al Horford2008201117.511620.3010533.8
0.15461
1.4858
Kevin Johnson1988200022.611826.6710934.1
0.17829
1.4759
Dominique Wilkins*1983199930.311233.9410835.5
0.14885
1.4560
PlayerFromToUSG%ORtgPoints Prod Per 100DRtgMP
WS/48(rk)
EPR(rk)
Bill Laimbeer1981199416.911519.4410431.8
0.14982
1.4361
Ray Allen1997201124.511427.9310837
0.15461
1.4362
Joakim Noah2008201115.411517.7110226.2
0.1649
1.4263
Nene Hilario2003201118.111320.4510329.6
0.15272
1.4264
Blake Griffin2011201127.311130.3010738
0.15272
1.4165
Peja Stojakovic1999201121.511424.5110633.5
0.14789
1.4166
Tracy McGrady1998201129.610831.9710433.7
0.15461
1.4067
Shawn Kemp199020032510626.5010027.9
0.14789
1.3968
Brandon Roy2007201125.411629.4611035.6
0.15753
1.3769
Marques Johnson198019902411226.8810634
0.1577
1.3770
PlayerFromToUSG%ORtgPoints Prod Per 100DRtgMP
WS/48(rk)
EPR(rk)
Detlef Schrempf1986200120.311723.7510729.6
0.15656
1.3371
Paul Millsap2007201119.711422.4610426
0.15174
1.3272
Vince Carter199920112910931.6110636.4
0.14694
1.3273
Todd MacCulloch2000200317.711320.0010015.4
0.16643
1.3274
Mehmet Okur2003201121.611324.4110529.1
0.14694
1.3175
Scot Pollard1998200812.511414.259916.5
0.15369
1.2776
Cedric Maxwell1980198816.911819.9410628.7
0.15461
1.2777
Anderson Varejao2005201113.711515.7610224.7
0.15174
1.2678
Gary Payton1991200722.511124.9810635.3
0.14885
1.2479
Steve Nash1997201121.211925.2311031.3
0.16839
1.2280
PlayerFromToUSG%ORtgPoints Prod Per 100DRtgMP
WS/48(rk)
EPR(rk)
Jeff Hornacek1987200019.711723.0510831.5
0.15461
1.2181
Brad Miller1999201118.411420.9810528.6
0.1577
1.2082
Serge Ibaka2010201115.911518.2910322.8
0.15369
1.2083
Maurice Cheeks1980199315.411718.0210631.8
0.14694
1.1984
Calvin Natt1980199021.311424.2810731.4
0.14694
1.1985
Kevin Love2009201122.111725.8610929.8
0.16345
1.1986
Steve Mix1980198321.711324.5210317.2
0.16839
1.1887
Leon Powe2007201120.411523.4610313.9
0.17433
1.1788
Marcin Gortat2008201115.311617.7510217.2
0.16246
1.1789
Terrell Brandon1992200223.911026.2910529.8
0.14789
1.1590
David Lee200620111911722.2310831
0.14885
1.1491
Kevin Martin2005201124.711728.9011131.2
0.15174
1.1492
Mark Price1987199822.811626.4510929.9
0.15852
1.1493
Ryan Anderson2009201120.711523.8110518.9
0.15753
1.0894
Carl Landry2008201120.511723.9910824.9
0.15560
1.0495
Terry Porter1986200219.111521.9710727.8
0.1577
1.0196
Ricky Pierce198319982511629.0011024.4
0.14694
0.9697
Kiki Vandeweghe1981199323.611928.0811330.3
0.14885
0.9698
Amir Johnson2006201114.312217.4510717.8
0.15461
0.8099
Ty Lawson201020111911822.4211023.6
0.14694
0.69100

1 comment:

  1. Do you have a page that shows how you calculate EPR? Also, what does the * mean next to some of the players?

    ReplyDelete

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