Adjusted Player "dWin%"

This is, as far as I know, the first publicly available Adjusted "Win%" metric for NBA players.

For a quick refresher, here's the theory:

1) Adjusted plus-minus data uses a regression equation to determine which player impacts team point margin the most, etc.
2) We can determine the probability of any team winning a game based on location (home or away), time left, and point margin. (I'm using Kupfer's old estimate).
3) According to this (and Ken Pomeroy, NCAA guru), there are certain points in the game with much more leverage than others.
4) Increasing your lead by 1 point is much more valuable to your team's win with 1 second left while the game is tied than at the beginning of the game when it is tied (i.e. clutch points>average points>"garbage time" points).

Using this, I have given each game substitution from the 2011 season play-by-play a "delta Win% per 100," showing the degree that each team's win% has changed. Using this instead of Efficiency Margin, I simply followed the steps in Eli Witus' golden blog post of old for the 2011 regular season.

I penalize high standard errors and reward low standard errors (by converting value+SE into a NormDist function then back into a value), thus making the system look slightly more like rAPM than APM.

You'll notice that some players have extremely high values that don't necessarily make sense; remember that in-game-Win-probability has a limit (it cannot exceed 100%). These rankings do not share that, (i.e. putting Dirk on an average team for a whole game would not win>120% of their games) since per-100 Win% can have extreme highs and lows. If you'd rather, simply move the decimal place over two spots to the left in your mind and consider that "delta Win% per possession."

Without further ado, here are the rankings:

	name	ReΔW%/100	ΔW%/100	SE
1	Nowitzki, Dirk	74.5%	63.2%	19.4%
2	Paul, Chris	74.4%	80.6%	24.7%
3	James, LeBron	70.2%	60.0%	19.5%
4	Ginobili, Manu	60.9%	49.4%	18.6%
5	Anderson, Ryan	60.3%	51.6%	19.6%
6	Howard, Dwight	60.0%	56.2%	21.4%
7	Jones, James	58.3%	47.9%	18.8%
8	Terry, Jason	58.3%	51.4%	20.1%
9	Gasol, Pau	53.8%	60.4%	25.7%
10	Davis, Baron	52.4%	45.3%	19.7%
11	Nash, Steve	49.8%	54.8%	25.1%
12	Garnett, Kevin	49.4%	55.2%	25.5%
13	Brand, Elton	49.4%	48.1%	22.3%
14	Wade, Dwyane	48.7%	48.4%	22.7%
15	Blatche, Andray	44.8%	38.0%	19.4%
16	Hilario, Nene	44.7%	38.4%	19.6%
17	Ibaka, Serge	44.3%	36.4%	18.8%
18	Millsap, Paul	44.2%	37.3%	19.3%
19	Tolliver, Anthony	43.3%	42.2%	22.3%
20	Duncan, Tim	43.1%	48.3%	25.6%
21	Hibbert, Roy	43.0%	60.4%	32.1%
22	Radmanovic, Vladimir	42.7%	36.9%	19.7%
23	Okafor, Emeka	42.3%	38.0%	20.5%
24	Fields, Landry	41.6%	31.5%	17.3%
25	Harris, Devin	41.0%	32.5%	18.1%
26	Wright, Dorell	40.3%	38.2%	21.7%
27	Collins, Jason	40.1%	43.8%	25.0%
28	Lowry, Kyle	40.0%	39.5%	22.6%
29	Calderon, Jose	39.7%	38.3%	22.0%
30	Farmar, Jordan	39.6%	31.7%	18.3%
31	Crawford, Jamal	39.2%	30.6%	17.8%
32	Martin, Kenyon	38.4%	33.8%	20.1%
33	Williams, Louis	37.1%	32.3%	19.8%
34	Watson, Earl	37.0%	31.9%	19.7%
35	Aldridge, LaMarcus	36.7%	39.0%	24.3%
36	O'Neal, Shaquille	36.4%	39.1%	24.6%
37	Foster, Jeff	36.1%	53.9%	34.1%
38	Collison, Nick	35.6%	32.1%	20.6%
39	Davis, Glen	34.6%	29.6%	19.5%
40	Miles, C.J.	34.5%	26.8%	17.7%
41	Jack, Jarrett	34.3%	27.9%	18.6%
42	Gordon, Eric	34.1%	29.2%	19.6%
43	Harrington, Al	34.1%	28.7%	19.2%
44	Wallace, Gerald	34.1%	23.4%	15.7%
45	House, Eddie	33.9%	33.8%	22.8%
46	Korver, Kyle	33.8%	33.3%	22.5%
47	McGee, JaVale	33.7%	27.0%	18.3%
48	Sefolosha, Thabo	33.7%	33.0%	22.4%
49	Mohammed, Nazr	33.5%	28.3%	19.3%
50	Bargnani, Andrea	32.7%	26.8%	18.7%
51	Young, Sam	31.8%	26.8%	19.3%
52	Chalmers, Mario	31.8%	29.9%	21.5%
53	Dunleavy, Mike	31.6%	33.8%	24.5%
54	Young, Thaddeus	31.4%	29.6%	21.5%
55	Arroyo, Carlos	31.3%	31.6%	23.1%
56	Turkoglu, Hedo	31.2%	22.9%	16.8%
57	Durant, Kevin	31.0%	32.3%	23.8%
58	Thompson, Jason	30.8%	25.6%	19.0%
59	Love, Kevin	30.6%	32.6%	24.3%
60	Gortat, Marcin	30.6%	26.2%	19.5%
61	Griffin, Blake	30.6%	29.6%	22.1%
62	Speights, Marreese	30.5%	34.1%	25.6%
63	Miller, Andre	30.4%	33.9%	25.4%
64	Chandler, Wilson	30.0%	21.3%	16.2%
65	Kidd, Jason	30.0%	34.5%	26.3%
66	Williams, Mo	29.8%	27.3%	21.0%
67	Boykins, Earl	29.7%	33.8%	26.0%
68	Ilyasova, Ersan	29.6%	25.8%	19.9%
69	Hill, George	29.5%	23.6%	18.3%
70	Deng, Luol	29.5%	33.0%	25.6%
71	Martin, Cartier	28.9%	31.9%	25.2%
72	Bogut, Andrew	28.5%	26.1%	20.9%
73	Randolph, Zach	28.5%	26.4%	21.2%
74	Jennings, Brandon	28.4%	30.2%	24.3%
75	Pierce, Paul	28.3%	28.9%	23.3%
76	Dooling, Keyon	28.0%	24.4%	19.9%
77	Curry, Stephen	27.5%	23.3%	19.4%
78	Johnson, Amir	27.4%	24.1%	20.1%
79	Foye, Randy	27.2%	23.5%	19.7%
80	Cousins, DeMarcus	26.9%	23.4%	19.8%
81	Barbosa, Leandro	26.3%	21.2%	18.5%
82	Walker, Bill	26.2%	25.8%	22.5%
83	Jeffries, Jared	26.2%	29.1%	25.4%
84	George, Paul	26.1%	30.3%	26.5%
85	Mayo, O.J.	26.1%	21.6%	18.9%
86	Hayes, Chuck	25.9%	26.5%	23.3%
87	Johnson, Joe	25.9%	23.0%	20.3%
88	Rose, Derrick	25.8%	43.2%	38.3%
89	Lewis, Rashard	25.7%	19.0%	16.9%
90	Odom, Lamar	25.1%	23.2%	21.1%
91	Jianlian, Yi	24.8%	22.6%	20.8%
92	Kirilenko, Andrei	24.7%	20.5%	18.9%
93	Lopez, Brook	24.7%	26.8%	24.8%
94	Fernandez, Rudy	24.5%	19.4%	18.1%
95	Bynum, Andrew	24.3%	24.4%	22.9%
96	Parker, Anthony	24.1%	22.0%	20.8%
97	Williams, Deron	23.8%	19.7%	19.0%
98	Harden, James	23.7%	23.2%	22.4%
99	Battier, Shane	23.4%	19.1%	18.7%
100	Turiaf, Ronny	22.6%	18.5%	18.7%
101	Budinger, Chase	22.6%	20.6%	20.9%
102	Henderson, Gerald	22.6%	17.9%	18.1%
103	Johnson, Wesley	22.5%	21.6%	22.0%
104	Andersen, Chris	22.2%	23.0%	23.7%
105	Greene, Donte	22.2%	20.6%	21.3%
106	Kaman, Chris	22.1%	22.4%	23.2%
107	Prince, Tayshaun	22.0%	19.7%	20.4%
108	Hawes, Spencer	21.9%	20.8%	21.7%
109	Dalembert, Samuel	21.6%	18.3%	19.3%
110	Anthony, Carmelo	21.3%	16.6%	17.8%
111	Morrow, Anthony	21.3%	18.5%	19.9%
112	Smith, Josh	21.1%	18.0%	19.5%
113	Bonner, Matt	20.9%	19.5%	21.4%
114	Williams, Marvin	20.8%	15.4%	16.9%
115	Beasley, Michael	20.8%	18.2%	20.1%
116	Monroe, Greg	20.4%	19.4%	21.7%
117	Matthews, Wes	20.2%	17.3%	19.6%
118	Bosh, Chris	20.0%	20.7%	23.7%
119	Williams, Shawne	20.0%	16.5%	18.8%
120	Bibby, Mike	19.8%	15.1%	17.4%
121	Smith, J.R.	19.6%	15.7%	18.3%
122	Thomas, Tyrus	19.5%	19.2%	22.6%
123	O'Neal, Jermaine	19.3%	25.1%	29.7%
124	Frye, Channing	19.2%	16.3%	19.3%
125	Miller, Brad	19.1%	20.3%	24.2%
126	Asik, Omer	18.5%	23.0%	28.4%
127	Allen, Tony	18.5%	15.9%	19.6%
128	Augustin, D.J.	18.4%	20.4%	25.3%
129	Felton, Raymond	18.2%	14.8%	18.5%
130	Gay, Rudy	18.2%	16.9%	21.2%
131	Gibson, Daniel	18.2%	15.6%	19.6%
132	Udrih, Beno	18.2%	16.1%	20.3%
133	Lee, Courtney	18.0%	17.5%	22.2%
134	Green, Jeff	17.8%	12.8%	16.5%
135	Fisher, Derek	17.6%	29.6%	38.4%
136	West, David	17.2%	16.0%	21.3%
137	Conley, Mike	17.1%	22.8%	30.5%
138	Udoh, Ekpe	17.1%	16.0%	21.3%
139	Bayless, Jerryd	17.0%	15.5%	20.9%
140	Gallinari, Danilo	16.5%	12.8%	17.7%
141	Stoudemire, Amare	16.5%	13.6%	18.9%
142	Granger, Danny	16.3%	18.5%	25.9%
143	Stojakovic, Peja	16.1%	16.9%	23.9%
144	Gordon, Ben	16.1%	14.4%	20.4%
145	Ellington, Wayne	16.0%	16.7%	23.9%
146	Jones, Dahntay	15.9%	22.2%	32.0%
147	Diaw, Boris	15.8%	14.1%	20.4%
148	Maxiell, Jason	15.8%	16.2%	23.5%
149	Daniels, Marquis	15.5%	16.2%	23.9%
150	McRoberts, Josh	15.3%	17.4%	25.9%
151	Lee, David	15.2%	12.9%	19.4%
152	Horford, Al	15.0%	13.5%	20.5%
153	Rush, Brandon	14.9%	16.3%	25.0%
154	Williams, Shelden	14.9%	13.8%	21.3%
155	Roy, Brandon	14.7%	12.8%	19.9%
156	Neal, Gary	14.2%	12.6%	20.2%
157	Wilcox, Chris	14.0%	14.1%	23.0%
158	Jones, Solomon	13.9%	23.3%	38.4%
159	White, D.J.	13.8%	14.7%	24.3%
160	Bledsoe, Eric	13.8%	12.4%	20.6%
161	Douglas-Roberts, Chris	13.7%	13.6%	22.6%
162	Hollins, Ryan	13.5%	13.8%	23.3%
163	Smith, Jason	13.2%	12.8%	22.1%
164	Villanueva, Charlie	13.2%	11.9%	20.6%
165	Gasol, Marc	13.2%	11.2%	19.5%
166	Meeks, Jodie	12.9%	10.3%	18.2%
167	Williams, Reggie	12.7%	9.7%	17.4%
168	Samuels, Samardo	12.7%	15.3%	27.6%
169	Livingston, Shaun	12.6%	13.3%	24.0%
170	Delfino, Carlos	12.3%	10.1%	18.8%
171	Hickson, J.J.	12.3%	11.5%	21.5%
172	Casspi, Omri	11.9%	10.3%	19.7%
173	Barea, Jose	11.8%	11.3%	22.0%
174	McGrady, Tracy	11.6%	10.3%	20.1%
175	Krstic, Nenad	11.5%	9.7%	19.2%
176	Petro, Johan	11.4%	13.1%	26.3%
177	Pietrus, Mickael	11.4%	9.9%	20.0%
178	Brown, Shannon	11.3%	12.9%	26.2%
179	Chandler, Tyson	11.2%	14.1%	28.9%
180	Teague, Jeff	11.1%	11.2%	22.9%
181	Brockman, Jon	11.1%	13.2%	27.3%
182	Splitter, Tiago	10.8%	11.7%	24.7%
183	Lawson, Ty	10.8%	8.5%	18.0%
184	Carter, Vince	10.6%	8.5%	18.3%
185	Booker, Trevor	10.5%	9.6%	20.9%
186	Sessions, Ramon	10.2%	9.6%	21.4%
187	Butler, Caron	10.1%	10.3%	23.3%
188	Lopez, Robin	9.9%	10.0%	23.1%
189	Richardson, Quentin	9.8%	9.4%	21.9%
190	Jefferson, Richard	9.7%	8.5%	20.2%
191	Pachulia, Zaza	9.5%	8.7%	20.9%
192	Parker, Tony	9.5%	9.6%	23.1%
193	Iguodala, Andre	9.3%	8.3%	20.2%
194	Daye, Austin	9.3%	7.5%	18.5%
195	Scola, Luis	9.1%	9.8%	24.6%
196	Perkins, Kendrick	9.1%	9.4%	23.5%
197	Noah, Joakim	9.1%	11.0%	27.6%
198	Afflalo, Arron	9.1%	7.2%	18.0%
199	Childress, Josh	9.1%	8.9%	22.5%
200	Ellis, Monta	8.5%	8.3%	22.2%
201	Harris, Manny	8.5%	8.7%	23.4%
202	Bass, Brandon	8.4%	6.7%	18.1%
203	Brewer, Ronnie	8.4%	8.3%	22.6%
204	McDyess, Antonio	8.4%	8.3%	22.6%
205	Hill, Grant	8.3%	8.0%	21.9%
206	Gibson, Taj	8.3%	7.9%	21.8%
207	Allen, Ray	8.2%	8.1%	22.8%
208	Brewer, Corey	8.1%	6.9%	19.3%
209	Stuckey, Rodney	7.8%	7.0%	20.5%
210	Holiday, Jrue	7.5%	6.8%	20.7%
211	Patterson, Patrick	7.4%	8.8%	27.1%
212	Watson, C.J.	7.3%	11.1%	34.6%
213	Warrick, Hakim	7.2%	6.0%	19.3%
214	Thornton, Al	6.8%	5.2%	17.3%
215	Cunningham, Dante	6.5%	5.0%	17.9%
216	Landry, Carl	6.1%	4.8%	17.9%
217	Vujacic, Sasha	6.1%	4.9%	18.3%
218	Posey, James	5.9%	7.6%	29.6%
219	Brown, Kwame	5.8%	4.9%	19.4%
220	Graham, Joey	5.7%	6.3%	25.1%
221	Martin, Kevin	5.3%	5.7%	24.7%
222	Garcia, Francisco	5.1%	4.5%	20.1%
223	Thomas, Kurt	5.1%	6.2%	27.6%
224	Salmons, John	4.7%	4.2%	20.4%
225	Richardson, Jason	4.6%	3.5%	17.5%
226	Blake, Steve	4.5%	6.8%	34.5%
227	Smith, Craig	4.1%	4.8%	26.9%
228	Douglas, Toney	3.6%	2.8%	18.2%
229	Bogans, Keith	3.5%	4.1%	26.9%
230	Arthur, Darrell	3.3%	3.0%	20.8%
231	Artest, Ron	3.3%	3.5%	24.7%
232	Evans, Maurice	3.3%	2.5%	17.3%
233	Billups, Chauncey	3.0%	2.6%	20.1%
234	Varejao, Anderson	2.8%	3.5%	28.0%
235	Jefferson, Al	2.7%	2.7%	22.4%
236	Dragic, Goran	2.6%	2.5%	21.9%
237	Jordan, DeAndre	2.5%	2.0%	18.7%
238	Jackson, Stephen	2.3%	2.0%	19.6%
239	Williams, Jason	2.2%	3.4%	34.8%
240	Price, Ronnie	2.1%	2.2%	23.9%
241	Evans, Tyreke	1.8%	1.4%	18.0%
242	Butler, Rasual	1.4%	1.4%	22.6%
243	Arenas, Gilbert	1.2%	0.9%	17.3%
244	Boozer, Carlos	1.0%	1.0%	23.0%
245	Johnson, James	0.3%	0.3%	22.2%
246	Mills, Patrick	0.2%	0.3%	26.7%
247	Green, Willie	0.2%	0.1%	19.0%
248	Belinelli, Marco	0.1%	0.1%	20.3%
249	Miller, Mike	-0.1%	-0.1%	21.9%
250	Pekovic, Nikola	-0.9%	-0.9%	24.3%
251	Gooden, Drew	-1.0%	-1.1%	23.4%
252	Harangody, Luke	-1.1%	-1.3%	26.2%
253	Hamilton, Richard	-1.3%	-1.2%	21.2%
254	Crawford, Jordan	-1.4%	-1.4%	23.5%
255	Thornton, Marcus	-1.5%	-1.1%	17.0%
256	Randolph, Anthony	-1.5%	-1.7%	26.9%
257	Derozan, DeMar	-1.8%	-1.6%	20.0%
258	Rondo, Rajon	-1.8%	-1.8%	22.9%
259	Batum, Nicolas	-2.2%	-1.8%	18.6%
260	Maynor, Eric	-2.5%	-3.9%	34.8%
261	Jamison, Antawn	-2.6%	-2.5%	22.1%
262	Cook, Daequan	-3.0%	-3.6%	27.5%
263	Head, Luther	-3.3%	-3.7%	25.8%
264	Howard, Juwan	-3.6%	-4.4%	28.2%
265	Elson, Francisco	-3.7%	-4.4%	27.1%
266	Kleiza, Linas	-3.7%	-3.3%	20.3%
267	Young, Nick	-3.9%	-3.1%	18.4%
268	Wallace, Ben	-3.9%	-4.2%	24.7%
269	Nelson, Jameer	-4.0%	-4.2%	23.8%
270	Robinson, Nate	-4.4%	-4.7%	24.0%
271	Beaubois, Rodrigue	-4.5%	-5.8%	29.5%
272	Jeter, Eugene	-4.8%	-4.9%	23.6%
273	Wright, Julian	-4.8%	-4.7%	22.0%
274	Bryant, Kobe	-4.9%	-6.1%	28.5%
275	Cardinal, Brian	-5.0%	-5.9%	27.0%
276	Davis, Ed	-5.1%	-4.6%	20.6%
277	Ridnour, Luke	-5.2%	-10.6%	47.0%
278	Wilkins, Damien	-5.4%	-5.8%	24.4%
279	Brooks, Aaron	-5.4%	-4.8%	20.1%
280	Stevenson, DeShawn	-5.9%	-5.4%	21.0%
281	Amundson, Louis	-6.2%	-6.4%	23.6%
282	Telfair, Sebastian	-6.7%	-13.7%	47.0%
283	Westbrook, Russell	-6.7%	-10.7%	36.6%
284	Vasquez, Greivis	-6.9%	-9.1%	30.4%
285	Flynn, Jonny	-6.9%	-14.4%	47.5%
286	Seraphin, Kevin	-7.1%	-7.6%	24.5%
287	Mbah a Moute, Luc	-7.4%	-5.9%	18.2%
288	Humphries, Kris	-7.8%	-6.5%	19.1%
289	Evans, Reggie	-8.2%	-8.7%	24.2%
290	Barnes, Matt	-8.2%	-8.4%	23.4%
291	Carter, Anthony	-8.8%	-10.7%	27.8%
292	Camby, Marcus	-8.8%	-7.8%	20.2%
293	Outlaw, Travis	-9.3%	-7.0%	17.4%
294	Duhon, Chris	-9.5%	-10.9%	26.1%
295	Blair, DeJuan	-9.8%	-8.9%	20.8%
296	Przybilla, Joel	-10.6%	-12.6%	27.3%
297	Favors, Derrick	-10.7%	-8.5%	18.1%
298	Milicic, Darko	-10.7%	-10.1%	21.5%
299	Williams, Terrence	-10.8%	-15.9%	33.5%
300	Dudley, Jared	-11.6%	-9.8%	19.3%
301	Wall, John	-11.7%	-9.7%	19.0%
302	Powell, Josh	-12.0%	-13.8%	26.2%
303	Maggette, Corey	-12.5%	-10.3%	18.9%
304	Eyenga, Christian	-12.8%	-12.6%	22.4%
305	Hansbrough, Tyler	-13.1%	-15.0%	26.2%
306	Hinrich, Kirk	-13.1%	-9.2%	16.1%
307	Bynum, Will	-13.3%	-14.2%	24.3%
308	Ford, T.J.	-13.4%	-31.5%	53.6%
309	Forbes, Gary	-13.6%	-12.8%	21.4%
310	McGuire, Dominic	-13.6%	-13.5%	22.7%
311	Bell, Raja	-13.9%	-11.7%	19.3%
312	Sanders, Larry	-14.5%	-15.0%	23.7%
313	Pondexter, Quincy	-14.6%	-15.7%	24.6%
314	Hayward, Gordon	-15.3%	-13.4%	20.1%
315	Marion, Shawn	-15.4%	-13.4%	19.9%
316	Mason, Roger	-15.4%	-22.0%	32.7%
317	Redick, J.J.	-15.5%	-12.3%	18.1%
318	Gee, Alonzo	-16.2%	-15.1%	21.4%
319	Brown, Derrick	-16.2%	-17.8%	25.0%
320	Hill, Jordan	-16.9%	-17.0%	23.0%
321	Collison, Darren	-17.4%	-39.4%	51.9%
322	Murphy, Troy	-17.4%	-20.9%	27.3%
323	Price, A.J.	-17.8%	-40.8%	52.3%
324	Gomes, Ryan	-19.8%	-17.2%	19.9%
325	Aminu, Al-Farouq	-20.0%	-18.2%	20.8%
326	Haywood, Brendan	-20.1%	-23.1%	26.3%
327	Biedrins, Andris	-20.5%	-19.0%	21.2%
328	Nocioni, Andres	-21.1%	-19.5%	21.1%
329	Webster, Martell	-24.6%	-24.9%	23.1%
330	West, Delonte	-26.6%	-34.3%	29.5%
331	Moon, Jamario	-31.3%	-27.5%	20.1%
332	Law, Acie	-32.8%	-34.5%	24.1%
333	Ariza, Trevor	-34.2%	-31.9%	21.4%
334	Graham, Stephen	-34.8%	-33.6%	22.1%
335	Haslem, Udonis	-35.0%	-52.8%	34.5%
336	Weems, Sonny	-36.2%	-30.7%	19.3%
337	Dampier, Erick	-37.5%	-46.5%	28.3%
338	Ilgauskas, Zydrunas	-37.6%	-42.3%	25.7%
339	Turner, Evan	-46.6%	-39.4%	19.3%
340	Anthony, Joel	-54.3%	-58.5%	24.6%