For all your fancy-pants statistical needs.

Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN

Adjusted Player "dWin%"

This is, as far as I know, the first publicly available Adjusted "Win%" metric for NBA players.

For a quick refresher, here's the theory:

1) Adjusted plus-minus data uses a regression equation to determine which player impacts team point margin the most, etc.
2) We can determine the probability of any team winning a game based on location (home or away), time left, and point margin. (I'm using Kupfer's old estimate).
3) According to this (and Ken Pomeroy, NCAA guru), there are certain points in the game with much more leverage than others.
4) Increasing your lead by 1 point is much more valuable to your team's win with 1 second left while the game is tied than at the beginning of the game when it is tied (i.e. clutch points>average points>"garbage time" points).

Using this, I have given each game substitution from the 2011 season play-by-play a "delta Win% per 100," showing the degree that each team's win% has changed. Using this instead of Efficiency Margin, I simply followed the steps in Eli Witus' golden blog post of old for the 2011 regular season.

I penalize high standard errors and reward low standard errors (by converting value+SE into a NormDist function then back into a value), thus making the system look slightly more like rAPM than APM.

You'll notice that some players have extremely high values that don't necessarily make sense; remember that in-game-Win-probability has a limit (it cannot exceed 100%). These rankings do not share that, (i.e. putting Dirk on an average team for a whole game would not win>120% of their games) since per-100 Win% can have extreme highs and lows. If you'd rather, simply move the decimal place over two spots to the left in your mind and consider that "delta Win% per possession."

Without further ado, here are the rankings:




nameReΔW%/100ΔW%/100SE
1Nowitzki, Dirk74.5%63.2%19.4%
2Paul, Chris74.4%80.6%24.7%
3James, LeBron70.2%60.0%19.5%
4Ginobili, Manu60.9%49.4%18.6%
5Anderson, Ryan60.3%51.6%19.6%
6Howard, Dwight60.0%56.2%21.4%
7Jones, James58.3%47.9%18.8%
8Terry, Jason58.3%51.4%20.1%
9Gasol, Pau53.8%60.4%25.7%
10Davis, Baron52.4%45.3%19.7%
11Nash, Steve49.8%54.8%25.1%
12Garnett, Kevin49.4%55.2%25.5%
13Brand, Elton49.4%48.1%22.3%
14Wade, Dwyane48.7%48.4%22.7%
15Blatche, Andray44.8%38.0%19.4%
16Hilario, Nene44.7%38.4%19.6%
17Ibaka, Serge44.3%36.4%18.8%
18Millsap, Paul44.2%37.3%19.3%
19Tolliver, Anthony43.3%42.2%22.3%
20Duncan, Tim43.1%48.3%25.6%
21Hibbert, Roy43.0%60.4%32.1%
22Radmanovic, Vladimir42.7%36.9%19.7%
23Okafor, Emeka42.3%38.0%20.5%
24Fields, Landry41.6%31.5%17.3%
25Harris, Devin41.0%32.5%18.1%
26Wright, Dorell40.3%38.2%21.7%
27Collins, Jason40.1%43.8%25.0%
28Lowry, Kyle40.0%39.5%22.6%
29Calderon, Jose39.7%38.3%22.0%
30Farmar, Jordan39.6%31.7%18.3%
31Crawford, Jamal39.2%30.6%17.8%
32Martin, Kenyon38.4%33.8%20.1%
33Williams, Louis37.1%32.3%19.8%
34Watson, Earl37.0%31.9%19.7%
35Aldridge, LaMarcus36.7%39.0%24.3%
36O'Neal, Shaquille36.4%39.1%24.6%
37Foster, Jeff36.1%53.9%34.1%
38Collison, Nick35.6%32.1%20.6%
39Davis, Glen34.6%29.6%19.5%
40Miles, C.J.34.5%26.8%17.7%
41Jack, Jarrett34.3%27.9%18.6%
42Gordon, Eric34.1%29.2%19.6%
43Harrington, Al34.1%28.7%19.2%
44Wallace, Gerald34.1%23.4%15.7%
45House, Eddie33.9%33.8%22.8%
46Korver, Kyle33.8%33.3%22.5%
47McGee, JaVale33.7%27.0%18.3%
48Sefolosha, Thabo33.7%33.0%22.4%
49Mohammed, Nazr33.5%28.3%19.3%
50Bargnani, Andrea32.7%26.8%18.7%
51Young, Sam31.8%26.8%19.3%
52Chalmers, Mario31.8%29.9%21.5%
53Dunleavy, Mike31.6%33.8%24.5%
54Young, Thaddeus31.4%29.6%21.5%
55Arroyo, Carlos31.3%31.6%23.1%
56Turkoglu, Hedo31.2%22.9%16.8%
57Durant, Kevin31.0%32.3%23.8%
58Thompson, Jason30.8%25.6%19.0%
59Love, Kevin30.6%32.6%24.3%
60Gortat, Marcin30.6%26.2%19.5%
61Griffin, Blake30.6%29.6%22.1%
62Speights, Marreese30.5%34.1%25.6%
63Miller, Andre30.4%33.9%25.4%
64Chandler, Wilson30.0%21.3%16.2%
65Kidd, Jason30.0%34.5%26.3%
66Williams, Mo29.8%27.3%21.0%
67Boykins, Earl29.7%33.8%26.0%
68Ilyasova, Ersan29.6%25.8%19.9%
69Hill, George29.5%23.6%18.3%
70Deng, Luol29.5%33.0%25.6%
71Martin, Cartier28.9%31.9%25.2%
72Bogut, Andrew28.5%26.1%20.9%
73Randolph, Zach28.5%26.4%21.2%
74Jennings, Brandon28.4%30.2%24.3%
75Pierce, Paul28.3%28.9%23.3%
76Dooling, Keyon28.0%24.4%19.9%
77Curry, Stephen27.5%23.3%19.4%
78Johnson, Amir27.4%24.1%20.1%
79Foye, Randy27.2%23.5%19.7%
80Cousins, DeMarcus26.9%23.4%19.8%
81Barbosa, Leandro26.3%21.2%18.5%
82Walker, Bill26.2%25.8%22.5%
83Jeffries, Jared26.2%29.1%25.4%
84George, Paul26.1%30.3%26.5%
85Mayo, O.J.26.1%21.6%18.9%
86Hayes, Chuck25.9%26.5%23.3%
87Johnson, Joe25.9%23.0%20.3%
88Rose, Derrick25.8%43.2%38.3%
89Lewis, Rashard25.7%19.0%16.9%
90Odom, Lamar25.1%23.2%21.1%
91Jianlian, Yi24.8%22.6%20.8%
92Kirilenko, Andrei24.7%20.5%18.9%
93Lopez, Brook24.7%26.8%24.8%
94Fernandez, Rudy24.5%19.4%18.1%
95Bynum, Andrew24.3%24.4%22.9%
96Parker, Anthony24.1%22.0%20.8%
97Williams, Deron23.8%19.7%19.0%
98Harden, James23.7%23.2%22.4%
99Battier, Shane23.4%19.1%18.7%
100Turiaf, Ronny22.6%18.5%18.7%
101Budinger, Chase22.6%20.6%20.9%
102Henderson, Gerald22.6%17.9%18.1%
103Johnson, Wesley22.5%21.6%22.0%
104Andersen, Chris22.2%23.0%23.7%
105Greene, Donte22.2%20.6%21.3%
106Kaman, Chris22.1%22.4%23.2%
107Prince, Tayshaun22.0%19.7%20.4%
108Hawes, Spencer21.9%20.8%21.7%
109Dalembert, Samuel21.6%18.3%19.3%
110Anthony, Carmelo21.3%16.6%17.8%
111Morrow, Anthony21.3%18.5%19.9%
112Smith, Josh21.1%18.0%19.5%
113Bonner, Matt20.9%19.5%21.4%
114Williams, Marvin20.8%15.4%16.9%
115Beasley, Michael20.8%18.2%20.1%
116Monroe, Greg20.4%19.4%21.7%
117Matthews, Wes20.2%17.3%19.6%
118Bosh, Chris20.0%20.7%23.7%
119Williams, Shawne20.0%16.5%18.8%
120Bibby, Mike19.8%15.1%17.4%
121Smith, J.R.19.6%15.7%18.3%
122Thomas, Tyrus19.5%19.2%22.6%
123O'Neal, Jermaine19.3%25.1%29.7%
124Frye, Channing19.2%16.3%19.3%
125Miller, Brad19.1%20.3%24.2%
126Asik, Omer18.5%23.0%28.4%
127Allen, Tony18.5%15.9%19.6%
128Augustin, D.J.18.4%20.4%25.3%
129Felton, Raymond18.2%14.8%18.5%
130Gay, Rudy18.2%16.9%21.2%
131Gibson, Daniel18.2%15.6%19.6%
132Udrih, Beno18.2%16.1%20.3%
133Lee, Courtney18.0%17.5%22.2%
134Green, Jeff17.8%12.8%16.5%
135Fisher, Derek17.6%29.6%38.4%
136West, David17.2%16.0%21.3%
137Conley, Mike17.1%22.8%30.5%
138Udoh, Ekpe17.1%16.0%21.3%
139Bayless, Jerryd17.0%15.5%20.9%
140Gallinari, Danilo16.5%12.8%17.7%
141Stoudemire, Amare16.5%13.6%18.9%
142Granger, Danny16.3%18.5%25.9%
143Stojakovic, Peja16.1%16.9%23.9%
144Gordon, Ben16.1%14.4%20.4%
145Ellington, Wayne16.0%16.7%23.9%
146Jones, Dahntay15.9%22.2%32.0%
147Diaw, Boris15.8%14.1%20.4%
148Maxiell, Jason15.8%16.2%23.5%
149Daniels, Marquis15.5%16.2%23.9%
150McRoberts, Josh15.3%17.4%25.9%
151Lee, David15.2%12.9%19.4%
152Horford, Al15.0%13.5%20.5%
153Rush, Brandon14.9%16.3%25.0%
154Williams, Shelden14.9%13.8%21.3%
155Roy, Brandon14.7%12.8%19.9%
156Neal, Gary14.2%12.6%20.2%
157Wilcox, Chris14.0%14.1%23.0%
158Jones, Solomon13.9%23.3%38.4%
159White, D.J.13.8%14.7%24.3%
160Bledsoe, Eric13.8%12.4%20.6%
161Douglas-Roberts, Chris13.7%13.6%22.6%
162Hollins, Ryan13.5%13.8%23.3%
163Smith, Jason13.2%12.8%22.1%
164Villanueva, Charlie13.2%11.9%20.6%
165Gasol, Marc13.2%11.2%19.5%
166Meeks, Jodie12.9%10.3%18.2%
167Williams, Reggie12.7%9.7%17.4%
168Samuels, Samardo12.7%15.3%27.6%
169Livingston, Shaun12.6%13.3%24.0%
170Delfino, Carlos12.3%10.1%18.8%
171Hickson, J.J.12.3%11.5%21.5%
172Casspi, Omri11.9%10.3%19.7%
173Barea, Jose11.8%11.3%22.0%
174McGrady, Tracy11.6%10.3%20.1%
175Krstic, Nenad11.5%9.7%19.2%
176Petro, Johan11.4%13.1%26.3%
177Pietrus, Mickael11.4%9.9%20.0%
178Brown, Shannon11.3%12.9%26.2%
179Chandler, Tyson11.2%14.1%28.9%
180Teague, Jeff11.1%11.2%22.9%
181Brockman, Jon11.1%13.2%27.3%
182Splitter, Tiago10.8%11.7%24.7%
183Lawson, Ty10.8%8.5%18.0%
184Carter, Vince10.6%8.5%18.3%
185Booker, Trevor10.5%9.6%20.9%
186Sessions, Ramon10.2%9.6%21.4%
187Butler, Caron10.1%10.3%23.3%
188Lopez, Robin9.9%10.0%23.1%
189Richardson, Quentin9.8%9.4%21.9%
190Jefferson, Richard9.7%8.5%20.2%
191Pachulia, Zaza9.5%8.7%20.9%
192Parker, Tony9.5%9.6%23.1%
193Iguodala, Andre9.3%8.3%20.2%
194Daye, Austin9.3%7.5%18.5%
195Scola, Luis9.1%9.8%24.6%
196Perkins, Kendrick9.1%9.4%23.5%
197Noah, Joakim9.1%11.0%27.6%
198Afflalo, Arron9.1%7.2%18.0%
199Childress, Josh9.1%8.9%22.5%
200Ellis, Monta8.5%8.3%22.2%
201Harris, Manny8.5%8.7%23.4%
202Bass, Brandon8.4%6.7%18.1%
203Brewer, Ronnie8.4%8.3%22.6%
204McDyess, Antonio8.4%8.3%22.6%
205Hill, Grant8.3%8.0%21.9%
206Gibson, Taj8.3%7.9%21.8%
207Allen, Ray8.2%8.1%22.8%
208Brewer, Corey8.1%6.9%19.3%
209Stuckey, Rodney7.8%7.0%20.5%
210Holiday, Jrue7.5%6.8%20.7%
211Patterson, Patrick7.4%8.8%27.1%
212Watson, C.J.7.3%11.1%34.6%
213Warrick, Hakim7.2%6.0%19.3%
214Thornton, Al6.8%5.2%17.3%
215Cunningham, Dante6.5%5.0%17.9%
216Landry, Carl6.1%4.8%17.9%
217Vujacic, Sasha6.1%4.9%18.3%
218Posey, James5.9%7.6%29.6%
219Brown, Kwame5.8%4.9%19.4%
220Graham, Joey5.7%6.3%25.1%
221Martin, Kevin5.3%5.7%24.7%
222Garcia, Francisco5.1%4.5%20.1%
223Thomas, Kurt5.1%6.2%27.6%
224Salmons, John4.7%4.2%20.4%
225Richardson, Jason4.6%3.5%17.5%
226Blake, Steve4.5%6.8%34.5%
227Smith, Craig4.1%4.8%26.9%
228Douglas, Toney3.6%2.8%18.2%
229Bogans, Keith3.5%4.1%26.9%
230Arthur, Darrell3.3%3.0%20.8%
231Artest, Ron3.3%3.5%24.7%
232Evans, Maurice3.3%2.5%17.3%
233Billups, Chauncey3.0%2.6%20.1%
234Varejao, Anderson2.8%3.5%28.0%
235Jefferson, Al2.7%2.7%22.4%
236Dragic, Goran2.6%2.5%21.9%
237Jordan, DeAndre2.5%2.0%18.7%
238Jackson, Stephen2.3%2.0%19.6%
239Williams, Jason2.2%3.4%34.8%
240Price, Ronnie2.1%2.2%23.9%
241Evans, Tyreke1.8%1.4%18.0%
242Butler, Rasual1.4%1.4%22.6%
243Arenas, Gilbert1.2%0.9%17.3%
244Boozer, Carlos1.0%1.0%23.0%
245Johnson, James0.3%0.3%22.2%
246Mills, Patrick0.2%0.3%26.7%
247Green, Willie0.2%0.1%19.0%
248Belinelli, Marco0.1%0.1%20.3%
249Miller, Mike-0.1%-0.1%21.9%
250Pekovic, Nikola-0.9%-0.9%24.3%
251Gooden, Drew-1.0%-1.1%23.4%
252Harangody, Luke-1.1%-1.3%26.2%
253Hamilton, Richard-1.3%-1.2%21.2%
254Crawford, Jordan-1.4%-1.4%23.5%
255Thornton, Marcus-1.5%-1.1%17.0%
256Randolph, Anthony-1.5%-1.7%26.9%
257Derozan, DeMar-1.8%-1.6%20.0%
258Rondo, Rajon-1.8%-1.8%22.9%
259Batum, Nicolas-2.2%-1.8%18.6%
260Maynor, Eric-2.5%-3.9%34.8%
261Jamison, Antawn-2.6%-2.5%22.1%
262Cook, Daequan-3.0%-3.6%27.5%
263Head, Luther-3.3%-3.7%25.8%
264Howard, Juwan-3.6%-4.4%28.2%
265Elson, Francisco-3.7%-4.4%27.1%
266Kleiza, Linas-3.7%-3.3%20.3%
267Young, Nick-3.9%-3.1%18.4%
268Wallace, Ben-3.9%-4.2%24.7%
269Nelson, Jameer-4.0%-4.2%23.8%
270Robinson, Nate-4.4%-4.7%24.0%
271Beaubois, Rodrigue-4.5%-5.8%29.5%
272Jeter, Eugene-4.8%-4.9%23.6%
273Wright, Julian-4.8%-4.7%22.0%
274Bryant, Kobe-4.9%-6.1%28.5%
275Cardinal, Brian-5.0%-5.9%27.0%
276Davis, Ed-5.1%-4.6%20.6%
277Ridnour, Luke-5.2%-10.6%47.0%
278Wilkins, Damien-5.4%-5.8%24.4%
279Brooks, Aaron-5.4%-4.8%20.1%
280Stevenson, DeShawn-5.9%-5.4%21.0%
281Amundson, Louis-6.2%-6.4%23.6%
282Telfair, Sebastian-6.7%-13.7%47.0%
283Westbrook, Russell-6.7%-10.7%36.6%
284Vasquez, Greivis-6.9%-9.1%30.4%
285Flynn, Jonny-6.9%-14.4%47.5%
286Seraphin, Kevin-7.1%-7.6%24.5%
287Mbah a Moute, Luc-7.4%-5.9%18.2%
288Humphries, Kris-7.8%-6.5%19.1%
289Evans, Reggie-8.2%-8.7%24.2%
290Barnes, Matt-8.2%-8.4%23.4%
291Carter, Anthony-8.8%-10.7%27.8%
292Camby, Marcus-8.8%-7.8%20.2%
293Outlaw, Travis-9.3%-7.0%17.4%
294Duhon, Chris-9.5%-10.9%26.1%
295Blair, DeJuan-9.8%-8.9%20.8%
296Przybilla, Joel-10.6%-12.6%27.3%
297Favors, Derrick-10.7%-8.5%18.1%
298Milicic, Darko-10.7%-10.1%21.5%
299Williams, Terrence-10.8%-15.9%33.5%
300Dudley, Jared-11.6%-9.8%19.3%
301Wall, John-11.7%-9.7%19.0%
302Powell, Josh-12.0%-13.8%26.2%
303Maggette, Corey-12.5%-10.3%18.9%
304Eyenga, Christian-12.8%-12.6%22.4%
305Hansbrough, Tyler-13.1%-15.0%26.2%
306Hinrich, Kirk-13.1%-9.2%16.1%
307Bynum, Will-13.3%-14.2%24.3%
308Ford, T.J.-13.4%-31.5%53.6%
309Forbes, Gary-13.6%-12.8%21.4%
310McGuire, Dominic-13.6%-13.5%22.7%
311Bell, Raja-13.9%-11.7%19.3%
312Sanders, Larry-14.5%-15.0%23.7%
313Pondexter, Quincy-14.6%-15.7%24.6%
314Hayward, Gordon-15.3%-13.4%20.1%
315Marion, Shawn-15.4%-13.4%19.9%
316Mason, Roger-15.4%-22.0%32.7%
317Redick, J.J.-15.5%-12.3%18.1%
318Gee, Alonzo-16.2%-15.1%21.4%
319Brown, Derrick-16.2%-17.8%25.0%
320Hill, Jordan-16.9%-17.0%23.0%
321Collison, Darren-17.4%-39.4%51.9%
322Murphy, Troy-17.4%-20.9%27.3%
323Price, A.J.-17.8%-40.8%52.3%
324Gomes, Ryan-19.8%-17.2%19.9%
325Aminu, Al-Farouq-20.0%-18.2%20.8%
326Haywood, Brendan-20.1%-23.1%26.3%
327Biedrins, Andris-20.5%-19.0%21.2%
328Nocioni, Andres-21.1%-19.5%21.1%
329Webster, Martell-24.6%-24.9%23.1%
330West, Delonte-26.6%-34.3%29.5%
331Moon, Jamario-31.3%-27.5%20.1%
332Law, Acie-32.8%-34.5%24.1%
333Ariza, Trevor-34.2%-31.9%21.4%
334Graham, Stephen-34.8%-33.6%22.1%
335Haslem, Udonis-35.0%-52.8%34.5%
336Weems, Sonny-36.2%-30.7%19.3%
337Dampier, Erick-37.5%-46.5%28.3%
338Ilgauskas, Zydrunas-37.6%-42.3%25.7%
339Turner, Evan-46.6%-39.4%19.3%
340Anthony, Joel-54.3%-58.5%24.6%

3 comments:


  1. 335 Haslem, Udonis -35.0% -52.8% 34.5%
    337 Dampier, Erick -37.5% -46.5% 28.3%
    338 Ilgauskas, Zydrunas -37.6% -42.3% 25.7%
    340 Anthony, Joel -54.3% -58.5% 24.6%


    I sense a theme.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Indeed...I need to look at each player's Raw On/OFF deltaWin% to try and make sense of all this...It might be very skewed to teams (i.e. it is a terrible idea to switch out one of the Big3 for anyone else).

    ReplyDelete
  3. Also James Jones seems to be loved in this....sigh, I need to learn Regularization.

    ReplyDelete

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