NBAdraft.Net's top 20 College Picks
ranked by Offensive Efficiency and Effective Offensive Size
Based on Adjusted Offensive Plus Minus as predicted by Offensive Rating and Usage% (via kenpom.com for college players).
Size+ is based on how Height + Weight predict offensive performance (at least, in the NCAA).
| rk | exp | Player | Team | Yr | NCAA Offense | Size+ | Ht" | Wt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Kyrie Irving | Duke | Fr | 11.85 | 22% | 74 | 180 | |
| 2 | 8 | Kemba Walker | Connecticut | Jr | 11.54 | 16% | 73 | 172 | |
| 3 | 2 | Derrick Williams | Arizona | So | 9.86 | 86% | 80 | 240 | |
| 4 | 13 | Jimmer Fredette | Brigham Young | Sr | 9.47 | 42% | 74 | 195 | |
| 5 | 24 | Nolan Smith | Duke | Sr | 8.98 | 28% | 74 | 185 | |
| 6 | 23 | Darius Morris | Michigan | So | 8.93 | 19% | 76 | 180 | |
| 7 | 10 | Alec Burks | Colorado | So | 8.20 | 20% | 78 | 185 | |
| 8 | 11 | Marcus Morris | Kansas | Jr | 7.70 | 71% | 80 | 225 | |
| 9 | 14 | Jordan Hamilton | Texas | So | 7.51 | 74% | 79 | 226 | |
| 10 | 3 | Brandon Knight | Kentucky | Fr | 6.82 | 26% | 75 | 185 | |
| 11 | 20 | Marshon Brooks | Providence | Sr | 6.71 | 28% | 77 | 190 | |
| 12 | 16 | Markieff Morris | Kansas | Jr | 6.60 | 77% | 81 | 232 | |
| 13 | 18 | Tobias Harris | Tennessee | Fr | 5.71 | 64% | 80 | 220 | |
| 14 | 9 | Tristan Thompson | Texas | Fr | 5.70 | 72% | 80 | 226 | |
| 15 | 7 | Kawhi Leonard | San Diego St. | So | 5.24 | 73% | 79 | 225 | |
| 16 | 15 | Klay Thompson | Washington St. | Jr | 3.93 | 39% | 78 | 200 | |
| 17 | 25 | Trey Thompkins | Georgia | Jr | 3.85 | 90% | 81 | 247 | |
| 18 | 17 | Chris Singleton | Florida St. | Jr | 3.77 | 71% | 81 | 227 | |
| 19 | 22 | Tyler Honeycutt | UCLA | So | 2.34 | 15% | 80 | 183 | |
| 20 | 21 | Kenneth Faried | Morehead St. | Sr | 1.92 | 74% | 80 | 228 |
I adjusted these for schedule, but did no NBA->NCAA translation or vice versa. These are based on the following regression:
predicted_Offense = Usage%*(0.92*ORTG - 0.82) - 0.029*ORTG
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