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NBAdraft.net Top 20, By NCAA Offense


NBAdraft.Net's top 20 College Picks
ranked by Offensive Efficiency and Effective Offensive Size

Based on Adjusted Offensive Plus Minus as predicted by Offensive Rating and Usage% (via kenpom.com for college players).

Size+ is based on how Height + Weight predict offensive performance (at least, in the NCAA).

rkexpPlayerTeamYrNCAA OffenseSize+Ht"Wt
11Kyrie IrvingDukeFr11.8522%74180
28Kemba WalkerConnecticutJr11.5416%73172
32Derrick WilliamsArizonaSo9.8686%80240
413Jimmer FredetteBrigham YoungSr9.4742%74195
524Nolan SmithDukeSr8.9828%74185
623Darius MorrisMichiganSo8.9319%76180
710Alec BurksColoradoSo8.2020%78185
811Marcus MorrisKansasJr7.7071%80225
914Jordan HamiltonTexasSo7.5174%79226
103Brandon KnightKentuckyFr6.8226%75185
1120Marshon BrooksProvidenceSr6.7128%77190
1216Markieff MorrisKansasJr6.6077%81232
1318Tobias HarrisTennesseeFr5.7164%80220
149Tristan ThompsonTexasFr5.7072%80226
157Kawhi LeonardSan Diego St.So5.2473%79225
1615Klay ThompsonWashington St.Jr3.9339%78200
1725Trey ThompkinsGeorgiaJr3.8590%81247
1817Chris SingletonFlorida St.Jr3.7771%81227
1922Tyler HoneycuttUCLASo2.3415%80183
2021Kenneth FariedMorehead St.Sr1.9274%80228

I adjusted these for schedule, but did no NBA->NCAA translation or vice versa. These are based on the following regression:

predicted_Offense = Usage%*(0.92*ORTG - 0.82) - 0.029*ORTG

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