For all your fancy-pants statistical needs.

Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN

The Basketball Distribution Season Projections v0.1, (The "Laugh it up, fuzzball" Edition)

I'll go ahead and admit right off the bat that this does not pass the laugh test.
For obvious reasons (Miami), my projections will make you chuckle a little.

While my player values are likely very accurate (projections for xRAPM), my minutes projections are not. I have a feeling that Ray Allen and Michael Beasley and Norris Cole will all get less playing time this season than my source for minutes suggests.
EDIT: IMPORTANT OTHER NOTICE: This doesn't take into account offenses who won't be able to use as many possessions as their new players inherently use (i.e. Brooklyn).

Without further ado, here they be:

Eff differential = Expected win differential based on projected xRAPM and projected minutes for all players.
pWins = Pythagorean wins, or, the # of wins expected were all teams to play an even schedule
>Avg Players = Total projected contribution of all above-zero xRAPM players
Total projected contribution of all below-zero xRAPM players
Bench win differential = how much the below average players on a team impact expected win total, versus the league average.

Miami's below-average players are...ahem...not awesome.

1 comment:


About Me

I wish my heart were as often large as my hands.