Redesign!

Blogger has kindly put out some new tools (and a sick new template!) that will hopefully make this blog a little less clunky.

Some current happenings in statistics land:

Check out my Carolina-Duke win probability meter. This will update incrementally as the season goes on, and is based on the probabilities demonstrated by using Ken Pomeroy's predictions, which for the '10-'11 season is only available as of yet by purchasing College Basketball Prospectus '10-'11.

Also, I've got a formula for estimating end-of-season raw efficiencies (where efficiency is points scored per 100 possessions) based on two variables:

1) The number of games a team has played

2) The team's current raw efficiency average (offensive or defensive)


Where g=games played, solve this: x=.141*LN(g)+.466

Where x gives you the weight a team's current average should have compared to the league's average. i.e.
Est. Final Avg= x*Current Avg + (1-x)*League Avg

Have fun and be safe!