For all your fancy-pants statistical needs.

Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN

NCAA team offensive efficiency impacts

I have previously done work on estimating how much statistics (specifically, the Four Factors + 2 more) impact efficiency. My prior method was lazy and inaccurate at adjusting for Strength of Schedule. The new method adjusts each factor rating differently. For the math, scroll to the bottom* EDIT: Yes, the total numbers do not EXACTLY equal (Adjusted Offensive Rating - League Average Offensive Rating), but they are close (R^2 of .99, to be concise).

But here's what you really want.
NCAA adjusted offensive four factors

*The original method took (Deductive Efficiency - Deduced efficiency with league average stat) and multiplied this by (Adjusted Efficiency / Raw Efficiency). The new method is a little more complex. I found out that each stat didn't impact efficiency as much as I thought, since each factor interacts with one another. I found the following:

While predicting change in efficiency (minus average), the following weights occur: eFG&FG+=1.065833, TO%+=1.088916, OR%+=0.935664, FTR&FT+=0.38507

Each individual output would have to be multiplied by these coefficients. However, I still needed to adjust for strength of schedule. To do this, I subtracted Adjusted - Raw Offense for each team to get their Schedule Adjustment Factor. I then weighed each of the four factors so that they would sum to one (fg=
0.306672, to=0.313314, or=0.269218,ft= 0.110796). Here's an example of how eFG%&FG% look:

eFG&FG+=1.065833 * [(Deduced Efficiency - Deduced efficiency with average eFG% and FG%) + .306672*Schedule Adjustment ]

No comments:

Post a Comment


About Me

I wish my heart were as often large as my hands.