I've been trying to create adjusted four-factors for quite a while now, and I've finally settled on a method that is somewhat sound. First, I adjusted each team's four-factors for strength of schedule. Then I adjusted for home-court advantage using a similar method. Here are my predicted results for UNC v Wisconsin.
| eFG% | TO% | OR% | FTR | Efficiency | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 48.2 | 17.4 | 31.8 | 39.5 | 101.9 |
| WISC | 49.7 | 19.1 | 33.4 | 9.9 | 100.4 |
All the margins here are very slight, except for Free-Throw-Rate, which seems about right considering the Heels' and Badgers' status quo.*
Caveat: If we adjust Free-Throw-Rate for FT%, UNC's efficiency would most certainly drop in this formula. The four factors explain 95-99% of a team's efficiency. The remainder mostly comes from OR% being overrated when eFG% is "artificially" boosted by 3-pointers (this is why FG% is a necessary evil...), and free throw percentage.
*-What is the plural of quo? "Quotient"? "Quos"?? I sure hope it's not "quos."
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