"My Team Should be #4, not #10!"

Howdy, folks.

Just thought you should know that we can demonstrate, mathematically, that there is little observable difference between teams in the top 25...er...top 32...er....top 15.

If the top 32 teams played .500 teams for 34 games, this would be their expected record (according to Ken Pomeroy's preseason numbers) :

Rank	Team	Wins per 34	Losses per 34
1	Kentucky	33	1
2	Ohio St.	32	2
2	North Carolina	32	2
2	Duke	32	2
5	Syracuse	31	3
5	Connecticut	31	3
5	Pittsburgh	31	3
5	Louisville	31	3
9	Vanderbilt	30	4
9	Wisconsin	30	4
9	Kansas	30	4
9	Florida	30	4
9	Temple	30	4
9	Missouri	30	4
15	Baylor	29	5
15	Xavier	29	5
15	Gonzaga	29	5
15	Nevada Las Vegas	29	5
15	Purdue	29	5
15	Memphis	29	5
15	Marquette	29	5
15	Michigan	29	5
15	St. Mary's	29	5
15	Michigan St.	29	5
15	Miami FL	29	5
15	West Virginia	29	5
15	Belmont	29	5
15	Florida St.	29	5
15	New Mexico	29	5
15	Texas	29	5
15	Texas A&M	29	5

True, Texas A&M would very likely lose to Kentucky (giving Pomeroy's preseason ratings the benefit of the doubt here), but over the course of a season, there is little observable difference between the two (at least in terms of wins and losses). But given college games usually deviate from 10 to 12 points from the predicted point margin, it is even true that over the course of time, there is little observable difference between the 25th and 1st teams -- even to algorithmic ranking systems.

I say all this not to oppose ranking -- I love ranking teams and players. It's what I do. But to get up in a tizzy about who is #1 and who is #5 in rankings, especially pollster rankings, is honestly pointless (and honestly unknowable). Furthermore, as you get further and further from #1, teams become more and more close in skill level -- i.e. given accuracy of ratings, the difference between UK and OSU is significantly greater than the difference between UT and TA&M (a consequence proven by the central limit theorem).

So next time you want to bicker about the pollsters, take a step back and say: "The difference between team #4 and team #10 is actually quite small," over and over.