Here's a quick look at how the top-ten-Pomeroy teams are faring early in the season.
I took each team's wins, and adjusted them for strength of opponent, home-court-advantage, and most notably, diminishing returns (for example, winning by 40 then by 20 makes you look like a +23 team, rather than a +30 team*).
| Tm | Adjusted Win% |
|---|---|
| Wisconsin (2) | 0.991 |
| Ohio St. (3) | 0.985 |
| Kentucky (1) | 0.977 |
| Syracuse (5) | 0.948 |
| Alabama (10) | 0.947 |
| Florida (8) | 0.941 |
| Duke (6) | 0.937 |
| Louisville (7) | 0.926 |
| Missouri (9) | 0.924 |
| North Carolina (5) | 0.921 |
The top 3 are playing like the top 3 (ish), Bama is playing quite well, and UNC has been lagging behind.
*This is a pretty simple excel calculation. Each game returns an adjusted efficiency margin by home-court-advantage/opponent strength, which I assume has a game-standard deviation of 16. I plug this number into the NormDist function in excel like so
=NormDist(x=Adj.Margin, mean=0, st.dev=16, cumulative=TRUE)
So when we average a 40-point win and a 20-point win (assuming a pace of 72 possessions), we get the following:
40-pt-win = .99974 win%
20-pt-win = .95873 win%
Average these two win%, and you get .97923.
The NormDist function regresses in a pretty intuitive way (theoretically, we could say that it estimate's the team's "real" win%). And, intuitively, plugging this Win% back in reverse does NOT give us +30 points, but rather +23.5 points. And so on.
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