Here's a quick look at how the top-ten-Pomeroy teams are faring early in the season.
I took each team's wins, and adjusted them for strength of opponent, home-court-advantage, and most notably, diminishing returns (for example, winning by 40 then by 20 makes you look like a +23 team, rather than a +30 team*).
|Ohio St. (3)||0.985|
|North Carolina (5)||0.921|
The top 3 are playing like the top 3 (ish), Bama is playing quite well, and UNC has been lagging behind.
*This is a pretty simple excel calculation. Each game returns an adjusted efficiency margin by home-court-advantage/opponent strength, which I assume has a game-standard deviation of 16. I plug this number into the NormDist function in excel like so
=NormDist(x=Adj.Margin, mean=0, st.dev=16, cumulative=TRUE)
So when we average a 40-point win and a 20-point win (assuming a pace of 72 possessions), we get the following:
40-pt-win = .99974 win%
20-pt-win = .95873 win%
Average these two win%, and you get .97923.
The NormDist function regresses in a pretty intuitive way (theoretically, we could say that it estimate's the team's "real" win%). And, intuitively, plugging this Win% back in reverse does NOT give us +30 points, but rather +23.5 points. And so on.