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Tidy Text: Top Teams' Toughness Tabulation, 11/28/2011

Here's a quick look at how the top-ten-Pomeroy teams are faring early in the season.

I took each team's wins, and adjusted them for strength of opponent, home-court-advantage, and most notably, diminishing returns (for example, winning by 40 then by 20 makes you look like a +23 team, rather than a +30 team*).

TmAdjusted Win%
Wisconsin (2)0.991
Ohio St. (3)0.985
Kentucky (1)0.977
Syracuse (5)0.948
Alabama (10)0.947
Florida (8)0.941
Duke (6)0.937
Louisville (7)0.926
Missouri (9)0.924
North Carolina (5)0.921

The top 3 are playing like the top 3 (ish), Bama is playing quite well, and UNC has been lagging behind.

*This is a pretty simple excel calculation. Each game returns an adjusted efficiency margin by home-court-advantage/opponent strength, which I assume has a game-standard deviation of 16. I plug this number into the NormDist function in excel like so

=NormDist(x=Adj.Margin, mean=0,, cumulative=TRUE)

So when we average a 40-point win and a 20-point win (assuming a pace of 72 possessions), we get the following:

40-pt-win = .99974 win%
20-pt-win = .95873 win%

Average these two win%, and you get .97923.
The NormDist function regresses in a pretty intuitive way (theoretically, we could say that it estimate's the team's "real" win%). And, intuitively, plugging this Win% back in reverse does NOT give us +30 points, but rather +23.5 points. And so on.

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