NBAdraft.net Top 20, By NCAA Offense

NBAdraft.Net's top 20 College Picks
ranked by Offensive Efficiency and Effective Offensive Size

Based on Adjusted Offensive Plus Minus as predicted by Offensive Rating and Usage% (via kenpom.com for college players).

Size+ is based on how Height + Weight predict offensive performance (at least, in the NCAA).

rk	exp	Player	Team	Yr	NCAA Offense		Size+	Ht"	Wt
1	1	Kyrie Irving	Duke	Fr	11.85		22%	74	180
2	8	Kemba Walker	Connecticut	Jr	11.54		16%	73	172
3	2	Derrick Williams	Arizona	So	9.86		86%	80	240
4	13	Jimmer Fredette	Brigham Young	Sr	9.47		42%	74	195
5	24	Nolan Smith	Duke	Sr	8.98		28%	74	185
6	23	Darius Morris	Michigan	So	8.93		19%	76	180
7	10	Alec Burks	Colorado	So	8.20		20%	78	185
8	11	Marcus Morris	Kansas	Jr	7.70		71%	80	225
9	14	Jordan Hamilton	Texas	So	7.51		74%	79	226
10	3	Brandon Knight	Kentucky	Fr	6.82		26%	75	185
11	20	Marshon Brooks	Providence	Sr	6.71		28%	77	190
12	16	Markieff Morris	Kansas	Jr	6.60		77%	81	232
13	18	Tobias Harris	Tennessee	Fr	5.71		64%	80	220
14	9	Tristan Thompson	Texas	Fr	5.70		72%	80	226
15	7	Kawhi Leonard	San Diego St.	So	5.24		73%	79	225
16	15	Klay Thompson	Washington St.	Jr	3.93		39%	78	200
17	25	Trey Thompkins	Georgia	Jr	3.85		90%	81	247
18	17	Chris Singleton	Florida St.	Jr	3.77		71%	81	227
19	22	Tyler Honeycutt	UCLA	So	2.34		15%	80	183
20	21	Kenneth Faried	Morehead St.	Sr	1.92		74%	80	228

I adjusted these for schedule, but did no NBA->NCAA translation or vice versa. These are based on the following regression:

predicted_Offense = Usage%*(0.92*ORTG - 0.82) - 0.029*ORTG

The Supporting Cast picks up The German's Slack - Game 6

LeBron had a bad day - but so did Dirk.

Bosh, Chalmers, and Wade are the only Miami players who appear to have a positive impact.

Raw Est APM(100) = Estimate of per-100-possessions impact
Adj Est +/- (G) = Estimate of point margin impact during the game

team	Starters	MP	TOV%	ORtg	DRtg	+/-	Raw Est APM(100)	Adj Est +/- (G)
DAL	Jason Kidd	36.3	25.8	143	108	18	5.32	3.25
DAL	Jason Terry	33.9	14.5	130	104	13	3.59	1.82
DAL	Shawn Marion	35.4	13.7	100	105	18	3.21	1.61
MIA	Chris Bosh	38.9	7.6	144	113	4	1.63	1.52
MIA	Mario Chalmers	38.5	15.8	110	111	5	1.02	1.01
DAL	Brian Cardinal	12.2	50	131	111	18	3.74	0.69
MIA	Dwyane Wade	41.1	20.8	90	112	3	0.40	0.54
DAL	Tyson Chandler	30.1	17	108	98	3	1.43	0.26
DAL	Ian Mahinmi	11.0	0	154	96	-1	0.17	-0.19
DAL	DeShawn Stevenson	12.6	0	174	104	-8	-0.51	-0.40
MIA	Eddie House	21.1	0	131	112	-1	-1.27	-0.45
DAL	Jose Juan Barea	29.6	20	117	103	-7	-0.05	-0.66
MIA	Juwan Howard	7.0	34.7	0	122	-11	-7.84	-1.10
DAL	Dirk Nowitzki	38.9	6.7	78	98	-4	-0.43	-1.17
MIA	Joel Anthony	10.9	0	63	120	-3	-5.58	-1.22
MIA	Udonis Haslem	33.9	0	119	117	-7	-1.98	-1.23
MIA	Mike Miller	8.3	0	0	119	-16	-10.02	-1.69
MIA	LeBron James	40.4	26.4	97	115	-24	-3.31	-2.58

The Biggest Game of Lebron James' life...was awful.

Dallas won by 9 points, which is 10.4 points per 100 possessions.

I split credit of the team's point margin in half, adjusted for pace, quality of opponent, and home-court-advantage.

Dallas played like a +4.98 team
Miami played like a -4.98 team

TOV%=percent of a player's possessions that ended in a turnover (basketball-reference.com's boxscore).
ORTG=offensive rating. very complex measure for efficiency
DRTG=defensive rating, similar to the above.
+/- = Plus-Minus rating, as tabulated by ESPN's box score. It shows the change in point margin while a player is on the court.

Raw est APM(100)= an estimate (using the above) of how much a player impacted his team's point margin per 100 possessions.

Adj est +/- (G) = an estimate of how much a player impacted his team's point margin per 100 possessions

team	Starters	MP	TOV%	ORtg	DRtg	+/-	Raw est APM(100)	Adj est +/- (G)
DAL	Jason Kidd	39.87	30.4	139	115	13	4.27	3.17
DAL	Tyson Chandler	38.67	0	150	117	14	3.03	2.08
DAL	Dirk Nowitzki	39.62	8.2	125	119	14	2.46	1.66
DAL	Shawn Marion	34.03	15.4	80	117	21	1.85	0.99
MIA	Mario Chalmers	23.45	12	175	128	-1	0.53	0.55
MIA	Mike Miller	23.20	16.7	143	128	0	-0.29	0.15
MIA	Juwan Howard	5.82	0	200	134	6	-0.02	0.07
DAL	Jason Terry	30.48	13.4	146	123	1	0.44	0.00
MIA	Udonis Haslem	33.00	0	140	131	0	-0.78	-0.13
MIA	Eddie House	3.47	33.3	0	95	3	-3.85	-0.23
DAL	Jose Juan Barea	25.65	8	146	126	4	0.00	-0.24
MIA	Joel Anthony	16.20	0	200	135	-9	-1.55	-0.32
DAL	Brian Cardinal	9.62	34.7	106	114	-7	-2.42	-0.57
DAL	Ian Mahinmi	8.1	0	123	123	-3	-3.70	-0.70
MIA	Dwyane Wade	34.45	18.8	126	124	-13	-1.74	-0.82
MIA	Mike Bibby	15.40	33.3	62	134	-7	-4.74	-1.33
MIA	Chris Bosh	39.38	20	113	131	-13	-2.24	-1.35
DAL	DeShawn Stevenson	13.97	0	133	127	-12	-4.44	-1.42
MIA	LeBron James	45.63	16.8	98	131	-11	-2.23	-1.56

(Here is a quick spreadsheet that explains how I currently estimate APM.)

James played nearly every minute of this game, and didn't really succeed. Per-possession, Bibby had a much worse game, however.

EDIT: By the way - these numbers are based on a prediction of these ratings.

Another Look @ Game 3

based on Engalmann's latest adjustement to Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus

raw est APM(100)=Estimate of adjusted +/- per 100
adj est +/- (G)= estimated contribution to team point margin during the game (adjusted for % of minutes played, quality of opponent, location)

team	Players	MP	TOV%	ORtg	DRtg	+/-	raw est APM(100)	adj est +/-(G)
MIA	LeBron James	45.3	20.2	104	108	1	4.11	3.73
DAL	Dirk Nowitzki	42.0	10.7	128	99	12	4.99	3.52
MIA	Dwyane Wade	38.6	0	137	101	-1	3.61	2.79
MIA	Mario Chalmers	28.8	11.1	131	110	6	3.14	1.79
DAL	Tyson Chandler	40.0	0	137	104	4	2.98	1.68
DAL	Jason Kidd	35.5	31.1	100	109	5	2.47	1.11
MIA	Udonis Haslem	29.0	12.5	86	105	5	1.70	0.94
DAL	DeShawn Stevenson	14.2	0	278	113	-7	3.06	0.62
MIA	Joel Anthony	23.1	0	108	102	3	0.99	0.41
MIA	Mike Miller	12.2	50	26	86	4	0.11	-0.01
MIA	Juwan Howard	6.4	0	146	109	6	0.05	-0.01
DAL	Brian Cardinal	0.1	0	0	116	-3	-9.17	-0.02
DAL	Shawn Marion	43.1	13.4	89	113	-1	0.84	-0.11
MIA	Chris Bosh	37.5	9	89	114	-10	-0.13	-0.22
DAL	Ian Mahinmi	8.0	0	145	115	-6	-2.64	-0.60
DAL	Peja Stojakovic	6.1	33.3	60	98	-11	-4.01	-0.63
MIA	Mike Bibby	19.1	16.7	60	101	-4	-1.65	-0.72
DAL	Jose Juan Barea	19.0	31.1	52	112	3	-1.67	-1.05
DAL	Jason Terry	32.1	0	112	109	-6	-0.75	-1.15

(Plus-minus number also gives us estimates for OnCourt +/- per 100 minus OffCourt +/- per 100, and teammate OnCourt minus OffCourt, both of which adjust the Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating, and Turnover% values)

Game 3! (Somewhat late...)

The formula is confused as to how Dallas lost. (Total contrib of around 11 versus Miami's 6).

Miami leads, 2-1.

team	Players	ORtg	DRtg	'+/-	min%	eff	contrib
DAL	Dirk Nowitzki	128	99	12	87.4%	4.54	3.97
DAL	Tyson Chandler	137	104	4	83.3%	3.35	2.79
MIA	Dwyane Wade	137	101	-1	80.5%	2.19	1.76
MIA	LeBron James	104	108	1	94.3%	1.80	1.70
DAL	Jason Kidd	100	109	5	73.9%	2.30	1.70
MIA	Mario Chalmers	131	110	6	60.1%	2.50	1.50
DAL	Shawn Marion	89	113	-1	89.9%	1.50	1.35
DAL	DeShawn Stevenson	278	113	-7	29.6%	3.42	1.01
MIA	Udonis Haslem	86	105	5	60.5%	1.44	0.87
MIA	Joel Anthony	108	102	3	48.1%	1.49	0.72
DAL	Jason Terry	112	109	-6	66.8%	0.80	0.53
MIA	Juwan Howard	146	109	6	13.4%	1.87	0.25
DAL	Ian Mahinmi	145	115	-6	16.7%	0.15	0.03
DAL	Jose Juan Barea	52	112	3	39.7%	0.02	0.01
DAL	Brian Cardinal		116	-3	0.2%	-3.69	-0.01
MIA	Mike Miller	26	86	4	25.3%	-0.38	-0.10
DAL	Peja Stojakovic	60	98	-11	12.6%	-2.22	-0.28
MIA	Mike Bibby	60	101	-4	39.8%	-0.87	-0.35
MIA	Chris Bosh	89	114	-10	78.1%	-0.53	-0.42

Game 2! (Very late...)

I finally came up with a formula that helps regress crazy values (i.e. Dirk off the court was worth -100 points per 100 possessions in game 2).


"Adjusted" +/- per 100 is a simple combination of Net +/- (ON - OFF), offensive rating, and defensive rating

DALLAS by 2, (tying the series at 1-1)

team	Starters	min%	ORtg	DRtg	+/-	Adj +/- per 100	Total +/- Contrib.
MIA	Dwyane Wade	87.8%	148	107	5	3.79	3.33
DAL	Dirk Nowitzki	87.6%	97	106	13	3.28	2.88
DAL	Tyson Chandler	79.4%	154	108	4	3.09	2.45
DAL	Jason Terry	64.8%	124	105	13	3.54	2.29
DAL	Shawn Marion	85.2%	123	106	1	2.13	1.81
MIA	Mike Bibby	46.0%	145	98	7	3.34	1.54
MIA	Chris Bosh	82.9%	71	112	3	1.49	1.23
MIA	LeBron James	82.5%	99	101	-5	1.27	1.05
DAL	Jason Kidd	78.2%	72	106	1	0.82	0.65
DAL	DeShawn Stevenson	46.1%	131	95	-5	0.82	0.38
DAL	Brendan Haywood	17.0%	65	112	5	-0.15	-0.02
DAL	Brian Cardinal	2.1%		108	-4	-3.30	-0.07
MIA	Mario Chalmers	51.9%	98	116	-7	-0.33	-0.17
DAL	Peja Stojakovic	10.3%	0	114	-7	-3.53	-0.36
DAL	Jose Barea	29.3%	82	109	-11	-1.69	-0.50
MIA	Joel Anthony	55.9%		114	2	-0.94	-0.52
MIA	Mike Miller	31.6%	0	99	-3	-1.97	-0.62
MIA	Udonis Haslem	61.3%	52	114	-12	-1.76	-1.08

GAME 1, NBA FINALS

Wayne Winston & more recently Kevin Pelton like to use +/- in their discussions on player performance. But Statistical plus-minus geeks like myself are dissatisfied with simple Net +/- ratings. It should be noted that I have not implemented any system that regresses towards the mean for small sample sizes. I will incorporate this later.

Here is how the Heat & Mavericks stack up in my combined system.

Adj. Rating = estimate of how much the player contributed to his team's point margin, per 100 possessions*
Contrib = estimate of a player's total contributions to their team's point margin during play

st. ORAPM = advanced stats prediction of offensive Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus
st. DRAPM = same^, except defensive RAPM
Statistical RTG = st. ORAPM + st. DRAPM

Net Plus-Minus = On-Court Team Efficiency Margin (per 100) minus Off-court Team Efficiency Margin

	Player		st. ORAPM	st. DRAPM	Net Plus-Minus	Statistical RTG	Adj RTG	Min%	Contrib
DAL	Dirk Nowitzki		1.76	3.60	40.63	5.35	11.84	84.3%	9.98
MIA	Chris Bosh		1.87	0.73	35.72	2.59	9.54	81.1%	7.74
MIA	LeBron James		6.25	-3.31	30.96	2.94	7.53	94.3%	7.10
DAL	Tyson Chandler		-0.99	1.66	21.46	0.67	5.82	70.4%	4.10
DAL	Jason Terry		-2.43	-4.25	30.96	-6.67	5.79	67.7%	3.92
MIA	Mario Chalmers		0.44	-0.66	16.58	-0.22	3.95	59.2%	2.33
MIA	Udonis Haslem		-3.87	-2.47	15.48	-6.34	2.30	61.6%	1.41
MIA	Dwyane Wade		2.82	-1.42	4.89	1.40	1.08	79.3%	0.86
MIA	Juwan Howard		-2.05	8.13	5.80	6.07	4.10	15.9%	0.65
DAL	Brendan Haywood		-3.68	13.72	-21.46	10.04	-0.98	29.6%	-0.29
DAL	Peja Stojakovic		-6.77	1.79	-2.81	-4.97	-1.21	30.7%	-0.37
DAL	DeShawn Stevenson		0.77	1.15	-15.61	1.92	-3.48	30.1%	-1.05
MIA	Mike Miller		0.04	-2.57	-6.63	-2.52	-2.72	42.1%	-1.14
MIA	Mike Bibby		-2.31	6.67	-25.36	4.36	-4.39	29.4%	-1.29
DAL	Jason Kidd		-2.75	0.35	-6.45	-2.40	-2.03	75.9%	-1.54
DAL	Jose Barea		-9.95	0.22	-15.48	-9.73	-5.52	37.8%	-2.09
DAL	Shawn Marion		0.84	2.59	-19.39	3.44	-3.89	73.6%	-2.86
MIA	Joel Anthony		-1.37	1.23	-41.27	-0.14	-10.30	37.2%	-3.83

*In case you were wondering, for the 2011 season, this is how statistical & Net plus-minuses predict (explain) RAPM ratings:

	Coefficients
Intercept	-0.081370214
s_ORAPM	0.160596108
s_DRAPM	0.373897645
Net per 100	0.253406036