For all your fancy-pants statistical needs.

Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN

The Biggest Game of Lebron James' life...was awful.

Dallas won by 9 points, which is 10.4 points per 100 possessions.

I split credit of the team's point margin in half, adjusted for pace, quality of opponent, and home-court-advantage.

Dallas played like a +4.98 team
Miami played like a -4.98 team

TOV%=percent of a player's possessions that ended in a turnover ('s boxscore).
ORTG=offensive rating. very complex measure for efficiency
DRTG=defensive rating, similar to the above.
+/- = Plus-Minus rating, as tabulated by ESPN's box score. It shows the change in point margin while a player is on the court.

Raw est APM(100)= an estimate (using the above) of how much a player impacted his team's point margin per 100 possessions.

Adj est +/- (G) = an estimate of how much a player impacted his team's point margin per 100 possessions

teamStartersMPTOV%ORtgDRtg+/-Raw est APM(100)Adj est +/- (G)
DALJason Kidd39.8730.4139115134.273.17
DALTyson Chandler38.670150117143.032.08
DALDirk Nowitzki39.628.2125119142.461.66
DALShawn Marion34.0315.480117211.850.99
MIAMario Chalmers23.4512175128-10.530.55
MIAMike Miller23.2016.71431280-0.290.15
MIAJuwan Howard5.8202001346-0.020.07
DALJason Terry30.4813.414612310.440.00
MIAUdonis Haslem33.0001401310-0.78-0.13
MIAEddie House3.4733.30953-3.85-0.23
DALJose Juan Barea25.65814612640.00-0.24
MIAJoel Anthony16.200200135-9-1.55-0.32
DALBrian Cardinal9.6234.7106114-7-2.42-0.57
DALIan Mahinmi8.10123123-3-3.70-0.70
MIADwyane Wade34.4518.8126124-13-1.74-0.82
MIAMike Bibby15.4033.362134-7-4.74-1.33
MIAChris Bosh39.3820113131-13-2.24-1.35
DALDeShawn Stevenson13.970133127-12-4.44-1.42
MIALeBron James45.6316.898131-11-2.23-1.56

(Here is a quick spreadsheet that explains how I currently estimate APM.)

James played nearly every minute of this game, and didn't really succeed. Per-possession, Bibby had a much worse game, however.

EDIT: By the way - these numbers are based on a prediction of these ratings.

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