For all your fancy-pants statistical needs.

Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN

Top 51 Overall NCAA Players as of 1/10

Games through 1/10.
Team Impact = (Estimated Efficiency Impact per 100 possessions) x (% of Possessions played in)
Where offensive and defensive efficiency impacts are estimated* by using offensive and defensive rating (& offensive usage%) at sports-reference.com, and strength of schedule from kenpom.com.



rankplayerteamconfOffensive Impact (100)Defensive Impact (100)Total Impact (100)Team ImpactMin%
1Damian LillardWeber StateBig Sky13.5-0.413.111.084%
2Kevin JonesWest VirginiaBig East7.92.210.19.190%
3Doug McDermottCreightonMVC11.1-0.610.58.177%
4Dominique MorrisonOral RobertsSummit9.0-0.18.97.989%
5Jared SullingerOhio StateBig Ten8.04.812.87.861%
6Marcus DenmonMissouriBig 129.10.79.87.880%
7Isaiah CanaanMurray StateOVC8.90.69.57.579%
8Will BartonMemphisCUSA6.71.78.47.387%
9Thomas RobinsonKansasBig 124.84.59.37.277%
10Kenny BoyntonFloridaSEC10.0-0.89.27.278%
11Mike ScottVirginiaACC7.52.19.67.073%
12Jae CrowderMarquetteBig East6.72.69.37.075%
13Anthony DavisKentuckySEC4.25.29.46.873%
14Cody ZellerIndianaBig Ten7.12.59.66.568%
15Nate WoltersSouth Dakota StateSummit8.2-0.67.66.485%
16Jeremy LambConnecticutBig East6.10.97.06.390%
17Noah HartsockBrigham YoungWCC5.52.47.96.379%
18Colt RyanEvansvilleMVC6.80.16.96.290%
19Jarrod JonesBall StateMAC6.81.27.96.278%
20Larry AndersonLong Beach StateBig West5.02.07.16.287%
21John JenkinsVanderbiltSEC7.70.48.16.276%
22Doron LambKentuckySEC7.01.18.16.176%
23Ryan BroekhoffValparaisoHorizon7.00.67.66.180%
24Ryan KellyDukeACC7.81.99.66.062%
25Hollis ThompsonGeorgetownBig East6.41.57.95.976%
26Deshaun ThomasOhio StateBig Ten6.02.48.45.970%
27Kevin PangosGonzagaWCC6.71.07.75.976%
28Drew CrawfordNorthwesternBig Ten6.9-0.16.85.785%
29Steven PledgerOklahomaBig 127.40.37.75.674%
30Kris JosephSyracuseBig East5.61.97.55.674%
31C.J. McCollumLehighPatriot6.90.37.25.677%
32Jordan TheodoreSeton HallBig East4.71.56.25.590%
33Brian ConklinSaint LouisA-106.31.47.75.571%
34J'Covan BrownTexasBig 125.90.86.75.582%
35Reggie HamiltonOaklandSummit7.8-1.26.65.584%
36Chase TapleySan Diego StateMWC5.31.66.95.580%
37Langston GallowaySaint Joseph'sA-105.60.86.45.585%
38Allen CrabbeCaliforniaPac-125.41.26.65.482%
39John ShurnaNorthwesternBig Ten6.00.16.15.488%
40Deonte BurtonNevadaWAC6.50.57.05.477%
41Zack RosenPennsylvaniaIvy6.1-0.35.75.494%
42Erick GreenVirginia TechACC6.20.76.95.377%
43Julian MavungaMiami (OH)MAC4.71.05.65.394%
44Draymond GreenMichigan StateBig Ten3.23.46.65.380%
45Chace StanbackNevada-Las VegasMWC6.51.58.05.366%
46Anthony RaffaCoastal CarolinaBig South4.71.86.55.280%
47Robbie HummelPurdueBig Ten5.41.46.85.176%
48Trevor RelefordAlabamaSEC4.52.57.05.173%
49Ricardo RatliffeMissouriBig 127.31.48.75.159%
50Robert CovingtonTennessee StateOVC6.80.27.05.173%
51Tyler ZellerNorth CarolinaACC4.93.07.85.165%


So, Lillard is the primary reason that an otherwise-extremely-mediocre offensive team (Pomeroy subscribers only) is #57th in the Pomeroys for offense. Weber's second-best offensive player (Scott Bamforth) uses 10% usage less, and is 10 points per 100 less efficient.

When I sum up all of Weber State's offensive contributions, we get +14.4. Their adjusted offensive rating is only +8 or so on kenpom.com, so it's my guess that (but if we just fit players' performances to their team ratings, we get some extremely ugly results, so I don't do that...I am basing it on last year's fit for Strength of Schedule, however). Even if we multiply each player's offensive value by 0.6 (which is roughly the same as 8/14.4), Lillard is still a top-25 player.



Mike Scott is still also an extremely good player as far as the eye can see, and is even underrated by his minutes (like Sullinger).





* Not going to reveal the regression equation just yet. Or ever :-)

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