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Praise for The Basketball Distribution:

"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN

Top 51 Overall NCAA Players as of 1/10

Games through 1/10.
Team Impact = (Estimated Efficiency Impact per 100 possessions) x (% of Possessions played in)
Where offensive and defensive efficiency impacts are estimated* by using offensive and defensive rating (& offensive usage%) at, and strength of schedule from

rankplayerteamconfOffensive Impact (100)Defensive Impact (100)Total Impact (100)Team ImpactMin%
1Damian LillardWeber StateBig Sky13.5-0.413.111.084%
2Kevin JonesWest VirginiaBig East7.
3Doug McDermottCreightonMVC11.1-0.610.58.177%
4Dominique MorrisonOral RobertsSummit9.0-
5Jared SullingerOhio StateBig Ten8.04.812.87.861%
6Marcus DenmonMissouriBig
7Isaiah CanaanMurray StateOVC8.
8Will BartonMemphisCUSA6.
9Thomas RobinsonKansasBig
10Kenny BoyntonFloridaSEC10.0-
11Mike ScottVirginiaACC7.
12Jae CrowderMarquetteBig East6.
13Anthony DavisKentuckySEC4.
14Cody ZellerIndianaBig Ten7.
15Nate WoltersSouth Dakota StateSummit8.2-
16Jeremy LambConnecticutBig East6.
17Noah HartsockBrigham YoungWCC5.
18Colt RyanEvansvilleMVC6.
19Jarrod JonesBall StateMAC6.
20Larry AndersonLong Beach StateBig West5.
21John JenkinsVanderbiltSEC7.
22Doron LambKentuckySEC7.
23Ryan BroekhoffValparaisoHorizon7.
24Ryan KellyDukeACC7.
25Hollis ThompsonGeorgetownBig East6.
26Deshaun ThomasOhio StateBig Ten6.
27Kevin PangosGonzagaWCC6.
28Drew CrawfordNorthwesternBig Ten6.9-
29Steven PledgerOklahomaBig
30Kris JosephSyracuseBig East5.
31C.J. McCollumLehighPatriot6.
32Jordan TheodoreSeton HallBig East4.
33Brian ConklinSaint LouisA-
34J'Covan BrownTexasBig
35Reggie HamiltonOaklandSummit7.8-
36Chase TapleySan Diego StateMWC5.
37Langston GallowaySaint Joseph'sA-
38Allen CrabbeCaliforniaPac-
39John ShurnaNorthwesternBig Ten6.
40Deonte BurtonNevadaWAC6.
41Zack RosenPennsylvaniaIvy6.1-
42Erick GreenVirginia TechACC6.
43Julian MavungaMiami (OH)MAC4.
44Draymond GreenMichigan StateBig Ten3.
45Chace StanbackNevada-Las VegasMWC6.
46Anthony RaffaCoastal CarolinaBig South4.
47Robbie HummelPurdueBig Ten5.
48Trevor RelefordAlabamaSEC4.
49Ricardo RatliffeMissouriBig
50Robert CovingtonTennessee StateOVC6.
51Tyler ZellerNorth CarolinaACC4.

So, Lillard is the primary reason that an otherwise-extremely-mediocre offensive team (Pomeroy subscribers only) is #57th in the Pomeroys for offense. Weber's second-best offensive player (Scott Bamforth) uses 10% usage less, and is 10 points per 100 less efficient.

When I sum up all of Weber State's offensive contributions, we get +14.4. Their adjusted offensive rating is only +8 or so on, so it's my guess that (but if we just fit players' performances to their team ratings, we get some extremely ugly results, so I don't do that...I am basing it on last year's fit for Strength of Schedule, however). Even if we multiply each player's offensive value by 0.6 (which is roughly the same as 8/14.4), Lillard is still a top-25 player.

Mike Scott is still also an extremely good player as far as the eye can see, and is even underrated by his minutes (like Sullinger).

* Not going to reveal the regression equation just yet. Or ever :-)

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